R>1

[AtW]

There is still the question of whether you can still transmit it even if you've been vaccinated.

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

Just walked past restaurant that was fully packed

[mattster]

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

All will be revealed over the next couple of months. Fingers crossed!

[SueEllen]

There is no question one can still transmit when vaccinated - the question is what %-tage does it, this %-tage seems to be getting lower with variants and/or reduced social distancing.

Just walked past restaurant that was fully packed

Then next week ping ping ping ping....

[AtW]

https://www.ft.com/content/9d7c5a19-...7-92571979c878

[d000hg]

Raw data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download, showing admissions scaled 10X, latest data.
It doesn't look to me like the connection between cases and hospitalisations is anywhere near as strong.

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[mattster]

It doesn't look to me like the connection between cases and hospitalisations is anywhere near as strong.

The connection is definitely weaker - looks very roughly between 5-10x weaker than before - but the sheer number of cases coming up might still put us in an uncomfortable place. There's no getting away from the fact that what we are doing in this country now is an experiment, and the outcome is uncertain. I just hope the selection pressure of lots of cases circulating in a heavily vaccinated environment doesn't breed an even more vaccine resistant variety, because then we really are screwed.

[ladymuck]

Raw data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download, showing admissions scaled 10X, latest data.
It doesn't look to me like the connection between cases and hospitalisations is anywhere near as strong.

Does that data set also include how many tests are conducted? Considering we're doing lots of testing at the moment, I'd love to know what the proportion of positive cases is rather than a gross figure.

[northernladuk]

The connection is definitely weaker - looks very roughly between 5-10x weaker than before - but the sheer number of cases coming up might still put us in an uncomfortable place. There's no getting away from the fact that what we are doing in this country now is an experiment, and the outcome is uncertain. I just hope the selection pressure of lots of cases circulating in a heavily vaccinated environment doesn't breed an even more vaccine resistant variety, because then we really are screwed.

Agreed and what people forget when they look at the graph like that is that it's heading north exponentially with no future measures available to stem it. I can't see any future lockdowns working because people have 'moved on' and won't comply. This is the same argument that has happened every time someone makes a comment on the graphs any one point. It's always a view on where we are right now... not thought for what is going to continue to happen. Had conversations with a few people this weekend that said the same. 'Ah but low deaths and hospitalisations'. That might be the case in the last graph they saw but by the time they wake up next morning that number has risen and so on every day going forward.

The graph looks like 28000 infected 4000 hospitlisations. Yeah low connection but next week when it's 60k infected and 8000 hospitlisations will that also be OK? People will be happy with that situation as well... and then there is the week after. Making statements at a point of time with two exponential graphs happening is pointless and short sighted.

[northernladuk]

I'd be very interested to see the stats on the people hospitalised though. If you took out those that have refused to get a vaccine and just concentrated on the fully vaccinated population what would the numbers look like. Take out the idiots that are refusing and look at what the new tomorrow looks like. What are the infection and hospital figures for a fully vaccinated population. That's the decision point for me. Not including people refusing to get vaccinated scewing the figures.

[DealorNoDeal]

I just hope the selection pressure of lots of cases circulating in a heavily vaccinated environment doesn't breed an even more vaccine resistant variety, because then we really are screwed.

This.

And the virus has a leg up because a lot of people have only had one jab.