Originally posted by Scorp1
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1) Nobody yet knows. There is not one variant first found in India, there are three. Of those, two are of a concern. One appears to be slightly more transmissible, whilst the other is substantially more transmissible. Compared to March 2020 variants, the variant first discovered in Kent was much more transmissible and induced higher viral load quicker than the original variants. One of these Indian variants is even more transmissible than that, which explains the scenes seen in India now.
2) Permitted purposes for traveling include work, so it's easy to see how multiple variants from India could enter the UK. PCR tests don't have 100% detection rates, and are only around 60-70% capable of being accurate even when used perfectly, which they are rarely so outside of a hospital scenario. Lateral flows tests vary in efficacy but are a joke, missing more cases than they catch.
3) We probably will end up with more restrictions again on a regional basis. Our main hope should be that the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine is better than the expected 20-40% against the more worrying Indian variant, otherwise we're going to see a lot of older people affected once more.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
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