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    #31
    Originally posted by Scorp1 View Post
    How effective are the current jabs against the Indian variant?


    When did the Indian Variant get into the UK ?

    I think the will lockdown again tbh

    1) Nobody yet knows. There is not one variant first found in India, there are three. Of those, two are of a concern. One appears to be slightly more transmissible, whilst the other is substantially more transmissible. Compared to March 2020 variants, the variant first discovered in Kent was much more transmissible and induced higher viral load quicker than the original variants. One of these Indian variants is even more transmissible than that, which explains the scenes seen in India now.

    2) Permitted purposes for traveling include work, so it's easy to see how multiple variants from India could enter the UK. PCR tests don't have 100% detection rates, and are only around 60-70% capable of being accurate even when used perfectly, which they are rarely so outside of a hospital scenario. Lateral flows tests vary in efficacy but are a joke, missing more cases than they catch.

    3) We probably will end up with more restrictions again on a regional basis. Our main hope should be that the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine is better than the expected 20-40% against the more worrying Indian variant, otherwise we're going to see a lot of older people affected once more.

    Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

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      #32
      The Govt knows Vauxhall Zeneca isn't working well, that's why big order for Pfizer (and Moderna?) for autumn, but one needs to survive Boris's approach of getting bodies piled up first.

      Good luck all, we are going to need it.

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        #33
        The idea now is to get the public recognition that case numbers are going up, in lieu of deaths increasing significantly. If deaths don't increase much, good news.

        Keeping the public aware that covid-19 hasn't disappeared is the most important thing. That's why this new variant and a reminder to keep socially distancing for a wee bit longer has been broadcast extensively and correctly so.

        Comment


          #34
          Originally posted by agentzero View Post


          1) Nobody yet knows. There is not one variant first found in India, there are three. Of those, two are of a concern. One appears to be slightly more transmissible, whilst the other is substantially more transmissible. Compared to March 2020 variants, the variant first discovered in Kent was much more transmissible and induced higher viral load quicker than the original variants. One of these Indian variants is even more transmissible than that, which explains the scenes seen in India now.

          2) Permitted purposes for traveling include work, so it's easy to see how multiple variants from India could enter the UK. PCR tests don't have 100% detection rates, and are only around 60-70% capable of being accurate even when used perfectly, which they are rarely so outside of a hospital scenario. Lateral flows tests vary in efficacy but are a joke, missing more cases than they catch.

          3) We probably will end up with more restrictions again on a regional basis. Our main hope should be that the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine is better than the expected 20-40% against the more worrying Indian variant, otherwise we're going to see a lot of older people affected once more.

          Hope for the best, plan for the worst.


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            #35
            indian variant could derail the lockdown opening plans. This variants may kill young people as seen in india also and the young people are not yet vaccinated.

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              #36
              NHS app now showing Covid vaccination record

              Comment


                #37
                Originally posted by AtW View Post
                The Govt knows Vauxhall Zeneca isn't working well, that's why big order for Pfizer (and Moderna?) for autumn, but one needs to survive Boris's approach of getting bodies piled up first.

                Good luck all, we are going to need it.
                The government has hedged it's bets.

                They have brought a few million doses of other vaccines that are either waiting to be licensed or are undergoing the last stage of clinical trials. Depending on the contracts they have agreed with those companies they may get them tweak them before they are used to vaccine people.
                "You’re just a bad memory who doesn’t know when to go away" JR

                Comment


                  #38
                  "Local lockdowns possible in England if Covid rates rise, says minister

                  Local lockdowns remain a possibility in some parts of England, as “intensive surveillance” continues in areas with high coronavirus rates, a cabinet minister has said.

                  The environment secretary, George Eustice, told Times Radio there was a “clear roadmap out of lockdown” with a decision due within weeks on whether the last stage of lifting of restrictions can go ahead on 21 June.

                  But he added: “If we do have a deterioration in some of these areas, then of course we can’t rule out that we would put in place certain local lockdowns. At the moment we are doing a lot of intensive surveillance in those areas, with surge testing to identify it and deal with it.”"

                  https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...george-eustice

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Well done.

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Originally posted by AtW View Post
                      You’ve heard it on here first…
                      UK Covid live: R-value rises above 1;

                      https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ers-government

                      Govt R calcs relate to what's happening 2-3 weeks ago...

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