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Previously on "R>1"

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  • SueEllen
    replied
    Yesterday there were 45,000 positive tests then this came out -

    https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/15/covid...ults-15425906/

    Tens of thousands of people may have been given false negative Covid-19 test results after a lab failure.

    NHS Test and Trace has suspended operations at the Immensa Health Clinic’s Lab in Wolverhampton, which processes PCR swabs.

    Health officials say 400,000 samples have been processed through the lab, mostly from the South West of England, and around 43,000 may have received inaccurate results from the lab between September 8 and October 12.

    An urgent investigation is under way but it’s believed the problem is ‘localised’ to the private facility and isn’t a wider problem with testing kits issued nationally.

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    We just need to get cases nice and low before winter to cope with the inevitable upswing.

    I think that was the plan this time last year too.

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  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by minestrone View Post

    Won't hit mid 6s now. Number of people in hospital only went up by 70 today to 6020 and the patients admitted per day is 120 fewer than the numbers from a few days ago. Should be dropping by the weekend.

    The claim next week will be that the app was great success and the pingdemic was just it working correctly and everyone was an idiot to doubt it.
    Should be back down to the mid 6s in a week or two, having peaked two weeks ago at just over 8,400.

    I'm sure your figures are right and everyone else is wrong, as usual.

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  • minestrone
    replied
    Originally posted by AtW View Post
    Skool closure (and end of euros), plus big increases made people more careful - is wot done it.

    Absolute nonsense.

    Scottish schools start their holidays 4 weeks earlier than England and the timing of the infections peak was the same for both countries.

    You can't even get the most basic analysis correct of what has taken place, yet seem to think you have a grasp on what is to come. No wonder your 'predictions' are woeful.



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  • AtW
    replied
    Skool closure (and end of euros), plus big increases made people more careful - is wot done it.


    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by ladymuck View Post

    Is it 100% eradicated in NZ? Is the entire population completely protected from it or do they have to live the rest of their lives in a hermetically sealed bubble?
    Strong borders give you a good chance if nobody is allowed in without a test. But if you can vaccinate everyone the you're set. The issue Australia has - not sure about NZ - is that their vaccination program is not doing well.

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  • AtW
    replied
    Originally posted by ladymuck View Post
    Is it 100% eradicated in NZ? Is the entire population completely protected from it or do they have to live the rest of their lives in a hermetically sealed bubble?
    Why rest of life? Maybe 2-3 years to see how things evolve, that will give long term vaccine info also, seems like a sensible path to take for those lucky enough to have natural borders on an island/continent.



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  • dsc
    replied
    As I already stated, no, cause not a lot of other countries followed the same rules, but once they had no cases inside the infection was only possible from outside.

    Long term full lockdown with quarantine for everyone is not really a sustainable approach, especially if you rely on tourism a lot, but it allowed NZ to fight the pandemic really effectively before vaccines were widely available. And that was the whole point of it.





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  • ladymuck
    replied
    Originally posted by dsc View Post
    You can definitely get to zero covid, just look at NZ, they managed it for some time very successfully. The issue is the rest of the world didn't follow the same rules, didn't track people etc. and allowed the virus to spread. Now the main question is whether the cost of getting to zero covid is too high and I guess for most countries the answer will be hell yes, so the next best thing is try to vaccinate as many people as possible and get rid of all restrictions. Remember that it's mostly about lowering the load on NHS so that they can cope with covid and all the other stuff they normally deal with on a daily basis.

    Loads of times people look at it as a black and white issue, lockdown everything vs get rid of all restrictions and live like before, when in reality is way more complex than this. I'm sure that your point of view changes if you've managed to survive cancer, had your chemo treatment and simply want to survive vs being fit and healthy and wanting to go to fecking Ibiza for a stag do.


    Is it 100% eradicated in NZ? Is the entire population completely protected from it or do they have to live the rest of their lives in a hermetically sealed bubble?

    Leave a comment:


  • dsc
    replied
    You can definitely get to zero covid, just look at NZ, they managed it for some time very successfully. The issue is the rest of the world didn't follow the same rules, didn't track people etc. and allowed the virus to spread. Now the main question is whether the cost of getting to zero covid is too high and I guess for most countries the answer will be hell yes, so the next best thing is try to vaccinate as many people as possible and get rid of all restrictions. Remember that it's mostly about lowering the load on NHS so that they can cope with covid and all the other stuff they normally deal with on a daily basis.

    Loads of times people look at it as a black and white issue, lockdown everything vs get rid of all restrictions and live like before, when in reality is way more complex than this. I'm sure that your point of view changes if you've managed to survive cancer, had your chemo treatment and simply want to survive vs being fit and healthy and wanting to go to fecking Ibiza for a stag do.



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  • ladymuck
    replied
    One day, people will realise that there is no such thing as zero Covid and that Saj was right when he said we have to learn to live with it and not cower from it. His phrasing was insensitive but the attitude is correct.

    (ugh, that's another chemical shower I need to have)

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  • dsc
    replied
    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post

    There wont be a fourth wave. Even the Spanish flu which was far worse than Covid only had 3 waves

    "There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919".

    UK has now let Covid rip and has 90%+ antibodies in the population, so i don't expect a fourth wave. Other countries maybe a different story.
    Last time I checked there weren't many flights back in the 1919 and generally people moved less around the world, so transmission was hugely limited.

    Double jabs give you tulip ton of antibodies yet people still get and pass on the virus, also studies showed that your level of antibodies drop gradually up to the point of having no immunity. If you think it's all going to magically end, you are mistaken.

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  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by SueEllen View Post

    The biggest thing you forgot is that while Covid is a virus, Covid is not flu.
    I don't think they said it was flu. It is a good comparison as a pandemic though. Viruses tend to behave in quite predictable ways.

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  • SueEllen
    replied
    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post

    There wont be a fourth wave. Even the Spanish flu which was far worse than Covid only had 3 waves

    "There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919".

    UK has now let Covid rip and has 90%+ antibodies in the population, so i don't expect a fourth wave. Other countries maybe a different story.
    The biggest thing you forgot is that while Covid is a virus, Covid is not flu.

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  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by GigiBronz View Post

    the prominent figures recognised that a 4th wave is forthcoming. probably deliberately not saying the next wave to give the impression that we are out of the danger for now. just enough to get people out and about for the heard immunity to get through.

    you can't scare the cows while taking them to the slaughterhouse

    or maybe I am just paranoid... but I don't think so
    There wont be a fourth wave. Even the Spanish flu which was far worse than Covid only had 3 waves

    "There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919".

    UK has now let Covid rip and has 90%+ antibodies in the population, so i don't expect a fourth wave. Other countries maybe a different story.
    Last edited by Fraidycat; 30 July 2021, 19:03.

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