R>1

[d000hg]

AtW is so rarely right about anything, just let him have the pyrrhic victory.

[Paralytic]

You don't just get many weeks of 30-40% growth in infection sand then suddely turning into 30-40% drop without any levelling off - does not happen naturally, and if it did then it must be first.

My theory -

1. "Pingdemic" bulltulip in the press and real pings (due to increased infections) made lots of young people delete app, so that they don't get pinged.
2. Since they don't get pinged they'll be less likely taking a test that would have picked up asymptomatics (more likely among the young).
3. YUGE DROP IN REPORTED INFECTIONS!

Hospital admissions over next 4-6 weeks should show if this is correct.

A graph showing % positive rates (rather than absolute numbers) would help indicate if any of this is what has happened.

[d000hg]

A graph showing % positive rates (rather than absolute numbers) would help indicate if any of this is what has happened.

The data is publicly available. Do you know how to use Excel?

[ladymuck]

The data is publicly available. Do you know how to use Excel?

The government don't

Actually, I'm not sure that the total number of tests taken is made available so all the excel skills in the world won't allow you to work the percentage of positive tests if you don't know how many tests were taken.

[northernladuk]

The government don't

I dunno about that, after working in a gov dept I'm shocked how much of it is just run by excel

[SueEllen]

I dunno about that, after working in a gov dept I'm shocked how much of it is just run by excel

I've come to the conclusion it is only some SMEs that aren't exclusively run by excel....

[AtW]

A graph showing % positive rates (rather than absolute numbers) would help indicate if any of this is what has happened.

And if it won't that means there is a Govt conspiracy...

[Paralytic]

The data is publicly available. Do you know how to use Excel?

I know that and, yes.

[minestrone]

Hospitalisations will level off in about 7-10 days. Maybe high 8s. Won't hit 10.

Certainly not "well above"

Won't hit mid 6s now. Number of people in hospital only went up by 70 today to 6020 and the patients admitted per day is 120 fewer than the numbers from a few days ago. Should be dropping by the weekend.

The claim next week will be that the app was great success and the pingdemic was just it working correctly and everyone was an idiot to doubt it.

[SueEllen]

Won't hit mid 6s now. Number of people in hospital only went up by 70 today to 6020 and the patients admitted per day is 120 fewer than the numbers from a few days ago. Should be dropping by the weekend.

The claim next week will be that the app was great success and the pingdemic was just it working correctly and everyone was an idiot to doubt it.

Was reading an interesting story - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-57989767



More than 600,000 people using the NHS Covid-19 app in England and Wales were sent self-isolation alerts in the week between 8 and 15 July.

And about one in five hospitality workers are isolating.

It's caused staff shortages in lots of industries, including the hospitality sector which employs over three million people.

With whole teams being "pinged" at once, pubs, restaurants and hotels have been forced to temporarily shut, pushing some hospitality staff to delete the app.

Rachael tells Radio 1 Newsbeat isolating has cost her between £300 and £400 in missed shifts.

The 22-year-old who lives in Brighton and, until two weeks ago, worked in a bar explains: "I've been pinged twice while on my way to shifts.

"Both times I've tested negative on lateral flows and PCRs. I don't agree with not self-isolating, but the app gives you no context on who you've been near."

Although isolating after being pinged isn't a legal requirement, the government urges people to do so.

In a recent interview, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng told the BBC: "If you are pinged, you should self-isolate. I know it poses challenges but the rules are clear and I think they should be followed."

Rachael says a big factor in deleting the app was a lack of sick pay. "If I'm off, I get no income or support. If I did I would self-isolate."

Frustrated by a lack of earnings, she spoke to her manager about ending one of her isolations early.

"I asked my boss, 'If I got a test today, and it's negative, can I work?'

"He said no because the head office was being strict, but in our staff WhatsApp chat he later messaged to say people should delete the app because they're losing so many staff."

Rachael agrees with her boss and wanted to delete the app.