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    #21
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post

    Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference.
    Not so.

    R is affected by:

    Transmissibilty
    Opportunity
    Duration of infection
    Susceptibility in the population.

    Of these, only opportunity and susceptibility can be tackled. The former through measures such as lockdown and social distancing. The latter through vaccination.

    The percentage of people who need to be vaccinated for herd immunity is 1-1/R. So if R is 4, then 75% need to be vaccinated. If it is 18 (measles for example), 95% need to be vaccinated. And that's assuming a 100% effective vaccine.

    So yes, sure, beyond a certain point it won't make a difference. But that point is rather high.




    Down with racism. Long live miscegenation!

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      #22
      Original strain had R in region of 3, Kent variant 60% more transmissible, if we get 60% on top of that R will be well above 4 - and we won’t get 75% vaccination levels any time soon, possibly never

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        #23
        “Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”

        https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/

        If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*


        * beyond point of death
        Last edited by AtW; 14 May 2021, 19:56.

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          #24
          Bham - infections up 20% on last week

          Lowest point is passed - we are on way up now

          Comment


            #25
            Originally posted by AtW View Post
            “Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”

            https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/

            If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*


            * beyond point of death
            There isn't any evidence that there is a new strain here, none, and while there was a few days of unusually high numbers in Glasgow, they dropped very significantly towards the end of the week.

            But by Thursday she needed to keep this out of the news...

            Scotland’s education system weakest in UK, according to new report (telegraph.co.uk)

            ...and building a panic, then closing the pubs did the job.

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              #26
              “Sage modelling shows (see charts below). If the new variant is just 10 to 20 per cent more transmissible we will only see a mild bump in new hospitalisations. But if it’s 30 to 50 per cent more transmissible the numbers of infections grow so large that hospitalisations quickly rocket beyond the NHS’s capacity to cope.”

              https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...orried-indian/

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                #27
                Originally posted by AtW View Post
                Original strain had R in region of 3, Kent variant 60% more transmissible, if we get 60% on top of that R will be well above 4 - and we won’t get 75% vaccination levels any time soon, possibly never
                All the anti-vax idiots will eventually catch it and either die (the Darwin option) or recover, having gained immunity the hard way.
                In either case it's win-win!

                P.S. I have no sympathy for superstitious, cowardly, selfish people who by declining the jab are prolonging the whole shenanigans and putting themselves and others at more risk.
                Last edited by OwlHoot; 16 May 2021, 10:36.
                Work in the public sector? Read the IR35 FAQ here

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                  #28
                  How effective are the current jabs against the Indian variant?


                  When did the Indian Variant get into the UK ?

                  I think the will lockdown again tbh

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                    #29
                    Originally posted by Scorp1 View Post

                    When did the Indian Variant get into the UK ? ...
                    Presumably Boris & co wanted to sell some more arms or something to India, and postponed closing the shutters until it was too late.

                    The same mistake they've made twice before now
                    Work in the public sector? Read the IR35 FAQ here

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                      #30
                      Originally posted by minestrone View Post

                      There isn't any evidence that there is a new strain here, none, and while there was a few days of unusually high numbers in Glasgow, they dropped very significantly towards the end of the week.

                      But by Thursday she needed to keep this out of the news...

                      Scotland’s education system weakest in UK, according to new report (telegraph.co.uk)

                      ...and building a panic, then closing the pubs did the job.

                      You are a conspiracy theorist nutjob and an embarrassment to contractors everywhere.

                      Both of the worrying variants, first discovered in India, have been found across Glasgow south side: Pollokshields. Teachers off sick with covid, including some of who have already been fully vaccinated. This is the aspect that should worry us and why caution is urged until more is known about vaccine efficacy.

                      It seems that the Pfizer BioNTech MRNA vaccine works against these two variants at 60-95%, which is great, but the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine may be 20-40% - not so great.

                      Still, why escape your conspiracy bubble and rely on facts, eh? You've got a partner who is a GP, but I presume they aren't very good, as they seem to be last in line for any 'facts' but first for general excrement that you post on here.

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