R>1

[d000hg]

So which vaccine stops you from catching Covid and spreading it?

All of the main ones seem to reduce the chance of catching Covid, and reduce the transmissibility if you do. I'm not sure what the point of the question is since I'm sure you already knew that - when they say a vaccine is 95% effective that clearly shows it doesn't stop every case. I'm not sure if there is any vaccine in the world that gives 100% protection against anything?

[AtW]

"Announcing what the next stage of the pandemic will look like in England, he confirmed:

• an end to limits on attendance at weddings and funerals
• table service rules at bars and restaurants and venue check-in requirements will be scrapped
• limits on named care home visitors will be lifted
• council powers to enforce rules will expire
• large-scale events will not legally require certification

It means nightclubs will reopen for the first time since the pandemic began, while ordering at the bar will return in a boost to the hospitality industry.

Social distancing requirements, including the 1m-plus rule, have prevented many venues from operating at full capacity during the pandemic."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57725523

Madness - night clubs FFS?

Herd Immunity v2.0 DELTA

[d000hg]

I really love table service in pubs, though we tend to frequent small pubs so maybe they will continue it. Very civilised.

[AtW]

"If we can't reopen our society in the next few weeks... we must ask ourselves 'when will we be able to reopen?'," the PM says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57718061

WHEN YOU ******* SURE IT'S THE RIGHT MOVE, THAT'S ******* WHEN!

And it's YOUR ******* job to get to that date sooner.

Not even Trump was dumb enough to do such tulip.

[d000hg]

I threw this together to plot cases and admissions X 10 from the official gov.uk data feeds, so far so OK but everything, everything is pinned on vaccines in a way I don't think the world has seen before(?) where the disease is still incredibly prevalent but rendered far less dangerous.
Uni-age people are being urged to vaccinate - no idea on uptake - but kids remain a huge reservoir until they all get it. Does anyone have any idea how long that might take, for it to run its course through <18s and drop back to a far lower level?

I noticed Whitty commented on this today, discussing how many doublings there would be before the peak is reached.

[DaveB]

I really love table service in pubs, though we tend to frequent small pubs so maybe they will continue it. Very civilised.

Unfortunately smaller ones are the ones least likely to continue it. The extra staff overheads to run table service can double or triple your staffing costs, or it puts staff under much more pressure. Our three local pubs, all small operations, have all had to put more staff on each shift to deal with the workload. You don't go to the bar, where there are one or two staff serving, you sit at your table and wait to be served and in order to avoid long waits that needs more staff on to cover it. That's not sustainable in the long term without prices going up to compensate in a market where people like Tim Martin pride themselves on undercutting the local competition on price per pint and hammering breweries on pricing to do it.

[d000hg]

Unfortunately smaller ones are the ones least likely to continue it. The extra staff overheads to run table service can double or triple your staffing costs, or it puts staff under much more pressure. Our three local pubs, all small operations, have all had to put more staff on each shift to deal with the workload. You don't go to the bar, where there are one or two staff serving, you sit at your table and wait to be served and in order to avoid long waits that needs more staff on to cover it. That's not sustainable in the long term without prices going up to compensate in a market where people like Tim Martin pride themselves on undercutting the local competition on price per pint and hammering breweries on pricing to do it.

Well yes if you want better service it costs more.

[SueEllen]

"If we can't reopen our society in the next few weeks... we must ask ourselves 'when will we be able to reopen?'," the PM says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57718061

WHEN YOU ******* SURE IT'S THE RIGHT MOVE, THAT'S ******* WHEN!

And it's YOUR ******* job to get to that date sooner.

Not even Trump was dumb enough to do such tulip.

When the next mask mandate comes in we will be blamed for not being responsible...

[d000hg]

Ideologically I am with "personal responsibility not government rule", but pragmatically I have met actual people. The line "people can be trusted to make informed, considerate decisions" puts journalists in a sticky position but is clearly tosh.

[d000hg]

So this is looking good... before restrictions even lift, cases are rising as fast as they were when things were at their worst last winter.
I suppose we might hope, ironically, that lifting restrictions will not make such a big impact because everyone has pretty much stopped following restrictions. But even that may be false hope.