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[Merged]Brexit stuff

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    Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
    It's interesting because that 7% exports more to the world than the US. Germany alone export three times as much as the UK.
    What is the relationship between free trade and free movement that you're trying to enunciate? It might be instructive to consider the relationship between the US and Canada as the most valuable bilateral free-trade relationship that doesn't involve free movement.

    Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
    The UK will continue to have a need for hairdressers and shelf stackers. Local folk either don't have the skill or desire.
    This is a lazy assessment that is conditional upon the economics of low-skilled migration while we remain within the EU. The lack of skills and desire is a structural artifact of the current supply of Labour, as there's no incentive to invest. Those companies that currently depend heavily on low skilled migration are going to see a major hit to their bottom line, but they've been unfairly advantaged for a long time.

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      Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
      What is the relationship between free trade and free movement that you're trying to enunciate? It might be instructive to consider the relationship between the US and Canada as the most valuable bilateral free-trade relationship that doesn't involve free movement.



      This is a lazy assessment that is conditional upon the economics of low-skilled migration while we remain within the EU. The lack of skills and desire is a structural artifact of the current supply of Labour, as there's no incentive to invest. Those companies that currently depend heavily on low skilled migration are going to see a major hit to their bottom line, but they've been unfairly advantaged for a long time.
      Shelf stackers, fruit pickers and similarly unskilled workers are 10% of EU migrants, which is what you seem to be talking about i.e. 15,000 people (i.e. 10% of net migration 150,000)..

      So do you want to simply exclude the 15000 unskilled workers or do you want to exclude the other 90%. 50% are in highly skilled jobs and 40% are in lower skilled occupations primarily in health care and carrying out essential duties in factories, such as operating machines and without whom the factories fulll of highly skilled technicians and engineers would come to a standstill ?
      Last edited by BlasterBates; 19 September 2016, 11:11.
      I'm alright Jack

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        Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
        This is a lazy assessment that is conditional upon the economics of low-skilled migration while we remain within the EU. The lack of skills and desire is a structural artifact of the current supply of Labour, as there's no incentive to invest. Those companies that currently depend heavily on low skilled migration are going to see a major hit to their bottom line, but they've been unfairly advantaged for a long time.
        If we removed all EU people today, I doubt that these business will suddenly see an influx of natives who want to work at the minimum wage. And it won't be economic to pay much above the minimum wage either.
        They'll probably just shut up shop.

        The basic problem is the lack of enough low level (manufacturing, service) jobs that can soak up those to the left of the Gaussian IQ curve. Only Germany seems to have solved that problem.
        Brexit isn't going to solve that.
        Hard Brexit now!
        #prayfornodeal

        Comment


          Originally posted by sasguru View Post
          Hasn't that been your problem throughout your life?
          My main problem here is getting a coherent and sensible answer from a Remnant. You aren't helping your cause.

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            Originally posted by GB9 View Post
            My main problem here is getting a coherent and sensible answer from a Remnant. You aren't helping your cause.
            Perhaps it may help if you're coherent and sensible yourself.
            Might stop people taking the mick.
            Hard Brexit now!
            #prayfornodeal

            Comment


              Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
              Shelf stackers, fruit pickers and similarly unskilled workers are 10% of EU migrants, which is what you seem to be talking about i.e. 15,000 people (i.e. 10% of net migration 150,000)..

              So do you want to simply exclude the 15000 unskilled workers or do you want to exclude the other 90%. 50% are in highly skilled jobs and 40% are in lower skilled occupations primarily in health care and carrying out essential duties in factories, such as operating machines and without whom the factories fulll of highly skilled technicians and engineers would come to a standstill ?
              You're manufacturing a false dichotomy. There are degrees of skill. Fruit-picking is not unskilled, per se, simply a skill that is sufficiently generic for us to favour UK workers. I've always been realistic about tackling this problem over time; that is, by using a controlled migration system, coupled with education and training, that gradually favours UK workers over an extended period of time. Obviously, this isn't going to please all the hardcore Brexiters that want immigration down to the 10s of thousands yesterday, but it's the Tories that propagated that little myth, not me.

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                Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                If we removed all EU people today
                This is precisely why it's so difficult to have a reasoned discussion about Brexit, because many of the Bremoaners (and some of the Brexiters too) revert to high-school debating tactics. Straw men abound. You're talking to me, not "Brexit". I'm not proposing that we remove everyone from elsewhere in the EU overnight. I'm proposing a change towards a controlled migration system that is recalibrated, over time, based on need (and paralleled with investment in technical skills and education, among other things). The idea that immigration is going to decline substantially, overnight, has always been for the birds.

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                  Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
                  This is precisely why it's so difficult to have a reasoned discussion about Brexit, because many of the Bremoaners (and some of the Brexiters too) revert to high-school debating tactics. Straw men abound. You're talking to me, not "Brexit". I'm not proposing that we remove everyone from elsewhere in the EU overnight. I'm proposing a change towards a controlled migration system that is recalibrated, over time, based on need (and paralleled with investment in technical skills and education, among other things). The idea that immigration is going to decline substantially, overnight, has always been for the birds.
                  Whoosh!
                  My point was a hypothetical one, namely, that native workers aren't going to flock to jobs currently done by immigrants if the immigrants disappeared overnight.
                  I wasn't suggesting that was a valid, desirable or even Brexit-wanted proposition.
                  Hard Brexit now!
                  #prayfornodeal

                  Comment


                    Anyway cutting through the verbiage, the bottom line is I believe Britain will be severely damaged by a hard Brexit, since the economy won't survive the death by a thousand cuts that will follow.
                    I may be wrong of course, but as I've always planned for the worst, that is what my future financial planning will assume.
                    Hard Brexit now!
                    #prayfornodeal

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                      Whoosh!
                      My point was a hypothetical one, namely, that native workers aren't going to flock to jobs currently done by immigrants if the immigrants disappeared overnight.
                      I wasn't suggesting that was a valid, desirable or even Brexit-wanted proposition.
                      so your point was as usual ill thought out & irrational.

                      As JB said we need to move to employing locals rather undercutting them with cheap labour that export their wages.
                      Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

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