R>1

[mattster]

I suppose we might hope, ironically, that lifting restrictions will not make such a big impact because everyone has pretty much stopped following restrictions. But even that may be false hope.

I guess the biggest changes on freedom day are going to be pubs and clubs. At least its not winter, so perhaps pubs won't be as packed inside as they might be, but clubs is a different matter. It's been a while since I went clubbing I must admit, but you could easily imagine just a few contagious people in there infecting just about everyone else over the course of an evening. No idea how many people actually go clubbing these days, or whether or not they'll want to right now, but could imagine an uptick infection there. Having said that, the government has been fairly clear that it actually wants as many young people as possible (including children) to get infected before winter, so perhaps this is all part of the plan?

[northernladuk]

I guess the biggest changes on freedom day are going to be pubs and clubs. At least its not winter, so perhaps pubs won't be as packed inside as they might be, but clubs is a different matter. It's been a while since I went clubbing I must admit, but you could easily imagine just a few contagious people in there infecting just about everyone else over the course of an evening. No idea how many people actually go clubbing these days, or whether or not they'll want to right now, but could imagine an uptick infection there. Having said that, the government has been fairly clear that it actually wants as many young people as possible (including children) to get infected before winter, so perhaps this is all part of the plan?

I think the distinction between pubs and clubs is a confusing one. We have no clubs in our local town centre (Bury) but instead a load of pubs, Irish bar, Weatherspoon and a load of independants. All been doing table service but come Friday it's going to be shoulder to shoulder as it was normally on a Friday/Saturday. In fact it's gonna be absolutle mayhem as everyone is going out from what I can tell.
Going clubbing is a time gone by unless you live in a city centre. It's all pubs and winebars now.

So I'd say when you count pubs you've got to consider town centre pubs that are shoulder to shoulder on weekend nights as well.

I'm a pesimist on all this. Every time they ease I can't see how a huge spike can't happen and it's happened every single time bar none. The line in that graph is going to go north exponentially. Have they called it too early? Is it a potentially disasterous move? Time will tell I guess. Maybe the balance between a normal life and lockdown has arrived but covid is gonna be all over the news as it escalates out of control for the next few months. The only saving grace is people aren't dying in great numbers and the NHS isn't overwhelmed. Still gonna be a miserable time for more than enough people IMO.

[northernladuk]

When the next mask mandate comes in we will be blamed for not being responsible...

Yep but the horse will have bolted. My son (early 20's) and all his mates are now of the (incorrect) opinion covid is over. They couldn't be more wrong. Their heads aren now past it so any new mandates/rules/measure are going to be a complete waste of time. Too late to turn back now.

[quackhandle]

Yep but the horse will have bolted. My son (early 20's) and all his mates are now of the (incorrect) opinion covid is over. They couldn't be more wrong. Their heads aren now past it so any new mandates/rules/measure are going to be a complete waste of time. Too late to turn back now.

Same thing happened last summer - I spoke/listened to both young and old who thought it was all over.

qh

[SueEllen]

Yep but the horse will have bolted. My son (early 20's) and all his mates are now of the (incorrect) opinion covid is over. They couldn't be more wrong. Their heads aren now past it so any new mandates/rules/measure are going to be a complete waste of time. Too late to turn back now.

That is until he catches.

Unfortunately he's unlikely to be ill from it though older people he infects are likely to be.

[mattster]

I'm a pesimist on all this. Every time they ease I can't see how a huge spike can't happen and it's happened every single time bar none. The line in that graph is going to go north exponentially. Have they called it too early? Is it a potentially disasterous move? Time will tell I guess.

Yes, IMO they have called it too early - snatching potential defeat from the jaws of victory. At a minimum, keep distancing and mask wearing - I relaly don't think most (sane) people care too much about that, and life is pretty much back to near-normal already for many. If public transport gets busy again and is filled with non mask wearers, then that is going to be another major spreading point - I'm steering well clear.

The bottom line is that the government is now, finally, going for "herd immunity" of the young in preference to getting them all vaccinated, which it could presumably choose to do and get done over the summer if it really wanted to. We are about to find out what the effects of semi-deliberately infecting 15 odd million young people actually are (estimates are that 85% of the unvaccinated will get it in the coming months). The percentage that suffer might be small, but with such a high absolute number of cases that could still be a lot of people. We're also about to find out just how effective these vaccines really are.

[d000hg]

I guess the biggest changes on freedom day are going to be pubs and clubs. At least its not winter, so perhaps pubs won't be as packed inside as they might be...

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Clubs are an interesting one. Very crowded but typically very dominated by the young. Who are the ones who don't seem to be following restrictions in the first place. Keep away from the young!

[mattster]

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Yeah, who knows? Even if the rate of contagion stays broadly the same, going from approx 1/3 capacity to full capacity trebles the potential number of infected right there! And I suspect at least a somewhat higher chance of getting infected, as well.

[northernladuk]

I mean pubs are restricting you 6 to a table but then every table is full for the football so is it really making much difference in poorly ventilated spaces? And people in their 6s are not distanced in the least so if you with 5 mates and one of you has it, it's a high chance several
of you will catch it even if other tables don't

Yep I always said the same. My other half is a primary teacher and they have the classrooms set out with a group of up to 8 kids around a table and they can see when flu/colds are doing the rounds one table will be missing a few bodies not just one at each table so the bubble per table does actually work so is a bit of a halfway house between going out and not spreading to everyone. Obviously they spread it in the playground etc but the groups around a table does work better than nothing.

Clubs are an interesting one. Very crowded but typically very dominated by the young. Who are the ones who don't seem to be following restrictions in the first place. Keep away from the young!

Agree with that also but again the clubs/pubs on friday night are the same thing. That said a club is actually better as they tend to bea bit bigger than a pub/winebar where it's shoulder to shoulder but still, it's going to go round like wildfire if someone is infected.

[northernladuk]

There is still the question of whether you can still transmit it even if you've been vaccinated. As far as I am aware the studies are inconclusive as to whether the vaccine reduces transmittion. I believe the Covid vaccine is an 'effective' solution which stops it attacking your body and if it does it decreases the effects. It's not a sterlising solution where your body kills the infection so can't pass it on. Unless I'm mistaken it's still possible to have the virus on you and pass it on even though it's not attacking your body.

So in theory that one person can enter a packed pub of old people, pass it on to them with no effect but that old person can still pass it around until someone who isn't vaccinate cops a faceful.