Reply to: How many (closet) Reform supporters do we have here?

[hobnob]

One is "Abolish IR35 Rules to Support Sole Traders".

There's a separate discussion about that (in "Business / Contracts" rather than "General"):
Reform UK abolishing IR35 - Contractor UK Bulletin Board

[malvolio]

There is actually a statement of reform policies:

Reform_UK_Our_Contract_with_You.pdf

One is "Abolish IR35 Rules to Support Sole Traders". Right! Expect all you lot will support them now!

Except for the small problem that IR35 is nothing to do with sole traders... But good to see they have a firm grasp of detail.

[xoggoth]

There is actually a statement of reform policies:

Reform_UK_Our_Contract_with_You.pdf

One is "Abolish IR35 Rules to Support Sole Traders". Right! Expect all you lot will support them now!

[DoctorStrangelove]

Of course, what we really need are MPs who have experience of life outside politics and local government instead of an endless succession of family, PPE grads, co-conspirators and get-rich-quick merchants, As we've said before, we used to have a Parliament with serious statesmen in it, now I can't think of any that would get even close to that description.

How utterly true that is on all sides.

There is one hope: The Fat Owl of the Remove joins Reform. . Job done.

[woody1]

I actually did vote for Count Binface.

Was that because there wasn't a Reform candidate?

[ladymuck]

I actually did vote for Count Binface.

[vetran]

Every Farage led party implodes after a while. Highly likely this one also does at some point before 2028.

But Reform is achieving things it may stay for a bit, Only reason Bojo, Truss & Magic Grandpa & B'ruin didn't demolish their parties was the partie's momentum.

[northernladuk]

Every Farage led party implodes after a while. Highly likely this one also does at some point before 2028.

It has but things are changing fast. There is a steady march to the right across Europe (and further) so their message is becoming ever more popular. The voting stats prove it. If he keeps resurrecting these groups he will nail it eventually. It might not be this one that gets in to power but it will be a similar one, and possibly have Farage heading it up.. and will be close to 2028. There is a possibility he may be in power rather imploded by 2028.

[northernladuk]

The way things are going N Farage esq will be the next PM.
Starmer has borked it.
and no one is getting a #SemiForKemi any more!

I would agree. It might not be next time round and Farage might not be heading it up when it happens but IMO it will happen. The lack of action on immigration by the major parties despite everyone agreeing it's at a crisis point is just forcing everyone to the right groups. It's happening across the world, we are no different.

[Ketto]

Every Farage led party implodes after a while. Highly likely this one also does at some point before 2028.

[malvolio]

1 = No chance. No credible replacement for Starmer either.
2 = Not with Kemi in charge. No credible replacement not even the likes of Jenrick.
3 = Most likely but Lee Anderson as Home Sec is more frightening than Farage as PM.
4 = Based on 1 &2 very unlikely.

Actually not so sure you're right about Kemi. She is bright enough to learn how to deal with her rivals, and right now she's focussed on stopping the infighting that did all the damage last time around. Another change of leader would be counter-productive. Option 4 may turn out to be the least worst solution.

Of course, what we really need are MPs who have experience of life outside politics and local government instead of an endless succession of family, PPE grads, co-conspirators and get-rich-quick merchants, As we've said before, we used to have a Parliament with serious statesmen in it, now I can't think of any that would get even close to that description.

[courtg9000]

I think we have various possibilities for the next election, remembering that the majority of voters are playing a beauty contest, not a rational decision for the best option (vide the last election...):

1. Labour actually deliver what they said they were going to deliver and retain a reasonable number of votes to retain their majority because The Tories and Reform are too busy fighting each other. I find that unlikely, to be honest, but miracles do happen - especially if Labour kick Starmer into the long grass.

2. The Tories come up with a sensible plan focussed on sorting whatever mess Labour leave behind, while Reform continue to be populist with no real manifesto for government. That would give a tory parliament with a small-ish majority. Possible but not as yet probable. It largely depends on Kemi connecting with the great unwashed, of course.

3. Reform come up with a genuine manifesto and some credible candidates to capitalise on the disaffected ex-Labour voters. The problem is that so far they have failed to even start on that path.

4. It's a three-way tie between them, resolved by a coalition of Tory and Reform, who are actually closer together than they are at the moment.


Gut feel is for number 4, YMMV. However while Farage having some senior role in a coalition, I do not relish the prospect of him as PM.


But to answer the OP, right now Reform are a bunch of optimists and chancers with no clear plan for end-to-end government. Nor, to be fair, do the Tories, but they do have experienced ex-Ministers on their side.

1 = No chance. No credible replacement for Starmer either.
2 = Not with Kemi in charge. No credible replacement not even the likes of Jenrick.
3 = Most likely but Lee Anderson as Home Sec is more frightening than Farage as PM.
4 = Based on 1 &2 very unlikely.

[malvolio]

I think we have various possibilities for the next election, remembering that the majority of voters are playing a beauty contest, not a rational decision for the best option (vide the last election...):

1. Labour actually deliver what they said they were going to deliver and retain a reasonable number of votes to retain their majority because The Tories and Reform are too busy fighting each other. I find that unlikely, to be honest, but miracles do happen - especially if Labour kick Starmer into the long grass.

2. The Tories come up with a sensible plan focussed on sorting whatever mess Labour leave behind, while Reform continue to be populist with no real manifesto for government. That would give a tory parliament with a small-ish majority. Possible but not as yet probable. It largely depends on Kemi connecting with the great unwashed, of course.

3. Reform come up with a genuine manifesto and some credible candidates to capitalise on the disaffected ex-Labour voters. The problem is that so far they have failed to even start on that path.

4. It's a three-way tie between them, resolved by a coalition of Tory and Reform, who are actually closer together than they are at the moment.


Gut feel is for number 4, YMMV. However while Farage having some senior role in a coalition, I do not relish the prospect of him as PM.


But to answer the OP, right now Reform are a bunch of optimists and chancers with no clear plan for end-to-end government. Nor, to be fair, do the Tories, but they do have experienced ex-Ministers on their side.

[Fraidycat]

Five members admitted to voting reform in July in our exit poll:

https://forums.contractoruk.com/gene...-vote-for.html

I would hope the number have gone up

[BlueSharp]

If Trump delivers (and it's a big if) all bets are off for the next election. I vote for whoever I think will be best for the country, with no allegiances to any of them. Labour has completely messed up taking charge in office, no real direction being provided in the Government's executive branches and no other message other than to soak the middle class.

Where will the floating voters go next if labour doesn't deliver?