Tax rises?

[woody1]

Precisely and this is what the Laffer curve tells us. Beyond a certain point, increasing taxation will have the effect of reducing the tax base by being overly punitive and incentivising people/companies to avoid whatever tax is too high. So last tax increase is likely largely responsible for the new £20bn hole - cut another $20bn and we'll just keep getting bigger and bigger holes. Taxation can be the destruction of money. You cannot make a country wealthy through taxation any more than you can lift yourself in the air by your own boot laces. Unfortunately we have a chancellor that lives in some weird leftie fantasy dream world - she is about as daft as Therasa May was. Anyway, it will all come to a sticky end fairly soon, I think and we'll have some kind of crisis, destruction and start taking a different approach.

The only alternative to plug the immediate hole would be to cut public spending. But is there that much scope left for big savings after post-2010 austerity?

Growing UK PLC is the only real answer but do any politicians know how to do that?

[tazdevil]

The only alternative to plug the immediate hole would be to cut public spending. But is there that much scope left for big savings after post-2010 austerity?

Growing UK PLC is the only real answer but do any politicians know how to do that?

Councils can stop DEI and green programmes and go back to a full 5 day 40 hour week without flexi working and then stop gold plated pensions

[WTFH]

Councils can stop DEI and green programmes and go back to a full 5 day 40 hour week without flexi working and then stop gold plated pensions

And maybe councils should do their jobs rather than employing rafts of "consultants" and "advisers"? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2794260.html

[tazdevil]

And maybe councils should do their jobs rather than employing rafts of "consultants" and "advisers"? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2794260.html

Yes that as well. They should bring back the City Engineer and other roles and do a lot more in house. Giving the Councillors more power over the executive would help as well because currently the CEO rules the roost and just ignores the Councillors if so inclined.

[willendure]

The only alternative to plug the immediate hole would be to cut public spending. But is there that much scope left for big savings after post-2010 austerity?

Growing UK PLC is the only real answer but do any politicians know how to do that?

Growth is not the only answer - certainly it is the best answer, but where will the growth come from?

The other answer, and I think the most likely one, is that the debt will be inflated away. Negative real rates and run inflation hot for 10 years. Of course its not as simple as I am making out but to me this seems like something that is inevitable. We should be facing up to the inevitable with other solutions around it that try to mitigate the worst asepects of it.

There is very little scope for cuts - as we saw with Doge failing in the US. Most government expenditure is not discretionary, its interest payments, military spending, pensions and the NHS.

[malvolio]

Growth is not the only answer - certainly it is the best answer, but where will the growth come from?

The other answer, and I think the most likely one, is that the debt will be inflated away. Negative real rates and run inflation hot for 10 years. Of course its not as simple as I am making out but to me this seems like something that is inevitable. We should be facing up to the inevitable with other solutions around it that try to mitigate the worst asepects of it.

There is very little scope for cuts - as we saw with Doge failing in the US. Most government expenditure is not discretionary, its interest payments, military spending, pensions and the NHS.

The debt isn't the problem, the interest on the debt is. And it won't go away, in fact it will only get worse, to the point where we can't borrow any more. Money is made on the level of debt interest, so there is no incentive to let it wither away.

That aside, public sector spending is the real issue. All well and good saying infrastructure projects will generate wealth - they will but over many more years then this government has to play with - but they are only a fraction of the outgoings on welfare and public sector pay, neither of which generate wealth.

[sadkingbilly]

A clusterfest of bar stool chancellors

[WTFH]

the outgoings on welfare and public sector pay, neither of which generate wealth.

Yup. 42% of the welfare budget goes on pensions, and pensions increase above the rate of inflation every year.
1% of the welfare budget goes on unemployment benefit.

Guess which ones are demonised by the populists?

[Peoplesoft bloke]

Yup. 42% of the welfare budget goes on pensions, and pensions increase above the rate of inflation every year.
1% of the welfare budget goes on unemployment benefit.

Guess which ones are demonised by the populists?

Actually, it's both. Pensioners receiving £11,973 a year are depicted as mansion-dwelling millionaires going on 2 world cruises a year.

[tazdevil]

Actually, it's both. Pensioners receiving £11,973 a year are depicted as mansion-dwelling millionaires going on 2 world cruises a year.

Quite, £12K will get you a two week cruise on Viking so most pensioners will be lucky if they can afford Ambassador, the OAP isn't capable of supporting luxuries by itself. If they double the Council tax for higher bands it won't even pay the tax on ones mansion