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The End Game

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    The End Game

    What's the end game for the current situation (most likely outcome)?

    22
    Ukraine falls to Russia
    27.27%
    6
    A deal is struck, Russia pulls back, Ukraine must never join Nato or EU
    22.73%
    5
    Ukraine "wins", Russia retreats unconditionally
    4.55%
    1
    The conflict draws in NATO, escalates, WWIII, everyone dies
    31.82%
    7
    Something else involving someone's mum
    13.64%
    3

    The poll is expired.

    First Law of Contracting: Only the strong survive

    #2
    I suspect the first option is most likely, but would hope that a compromise could be reached which might be something close to your 2nd option
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      #3
      Originally posted by WTFH View Post
      I suspect the first option is most likely, but would hope that a compromise could be reached which might be something close to your 2nd option
      Some sort of partial occupation, more areas annexed? It sounds like it would be likely but Ukraine seems very keen to fight. It might be all or nothing, hard to agree to forget about your capital city being bombed, rather than some provinces being invaded. I can't see EU/NATO agreeing to ban any future Ukrainian membership, that would be capitulation.
      Originally posted by MaryPoppins
      I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
      Originally posted by vetran
      Urine is quite nourishing

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        #4
        Can Russia live with the current sanctions, and possibly more, going on indefinitely?

        Because that's what they'll be facing if they don't withdraw.

        One way or another, Putin will need to get something out of this, otherwise he's going to lose a lot of public support for sacrificing the lives of many Russian soldiers and putting the economy in jeopardy.
        Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

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          #5
          I suppose "Putin forced out" is another option that should be considered - probably the only way for Russia to get out now they are so committed. I can't see Putin showing that weakness and I don't think sanctions will be lifted without Russia withdrawing. It's an 'easy' out to dispose the despot and then withdraw.
          Originally posted by MaryPoppins
          I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
          Originally posted by vetran
          Urine is quite nourishing

          Comment


            #6
            Putin will have to flatten Ukraine completely and exterminate all Ukrainians as it will turn into a Guerrilla war.
            "You’re just a bad memory who doesn’t know when to go away" JR

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              #7
              Part occupation RU does not enter Lviv area. Polish and Baltic states troops enter Western Ukraine, Green line established.
              "A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves and traitors are not victims, but accomplices," George Orwell

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by d000hg View Post
                Some sort of partial occupation, more areas annexed?
                Yes, that's what I suspect

                Originally posted by d000hg View Post
                I can't see EU/NATO agreeing to ban any future Ukrainian membership, that would be capitulation.
                No, I don't see that happening, V's option 2 consisted of 3 parts:
                1. A deal is struck - I hope so
                2. Russia pulls back - Not sure
                3. Ukraine must never join Nato or EU - Highly unlikely

                Unfortunately the way the option was worded, it was done as all three together are the only single option available.
                {emotionless greeting}

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by SueEllen View Post
                  Putin will have to flatten Ukraine completely and exterminate all Ukrainians as it will turn into a Guerrilla war.
                  Then Kiev could end up looking like this (Grosny)

                  Click image for larger version

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by Paddy View Post
                    Part occupation RU does not enter Lviv area. Polish and Baltic states troops enter Western Ukraine, Green line established.
                    Are you thinking it could end up like East/West Germany?
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