The End Game

[_V_]

What's the end game for the current situation (most likely outcome)?

[WTFH]

I suspect the first option is most likely, but would hope that a compromise could be reached which might be something close to your 2nd option

[d000hg]

I suspect the first option is most likely, but would hope that a compromise could be reached which might be something close to your 2nd option

Some sort of partial occupation, more areas annexed? It sounds like it would be likely but Ukraine seems very keen to fight. It might be all or nothing, hard to agree to forget about your capital city being bombed, rather than some provinces being invaded. I can't see EU/NATO agreeing to ban any future Ukrainian membership, that would be capitulation.

[DealorNoDeal]

Can Russia live with the current sanctions, and possibly more, going on indefinitely?

Because that's what they'll be facing if they don't withdraw.

One way or another, Putin will need to get something out of this, otherwise he's going to lose a lot of public support for sacrificing the lives of many Russian soldiers and putting the economy in jeopardy.

[d000hg]

I suppose "Putin forced out" is another option that should be considered - probably the only way for Russia to get out now they are so committed. I can't see Putin showing that weakness and I don't think sanctions will be lifted without Russia withdrawing. It's an 'easy' out to dispose the despot and then withdraw.

[SueEllen]

Putin will have to flatten Ukraine completely and exterminate all Ukrainians as it will turn into a Guerrilla war.

[Paddy]

Part occupation RU does not enter Lviv area. Polish and Baltic states troops enter Western Ukraine, Green line established.

[WTFH]

Some sort of partial occupation, more areas annexed?

Yes, that's what I suspect

I can't see EU/NATO agreeing to ban any future Ukrainian membership, that would be capitulation.

No, I don't see that happening, V's option 2 consisted of 3 parts:
1. A deal is struck - I hope so
2. Russia pulls back - Not sure
3. Ukraine must never join Nato or EU - Highly unlikely

Unfortunately the way the option was worded, it was done as all three together are the only single option available.

[Fraidycat]

Putin will have to flatten Ukraine completely and exterminate all Ukrainians as it will turn into a Guerrilla war.

Then Kiev could end up looking like this (Grosny)

[WTFH]

Part occupation RU does not enter Lviv area. Polish and Baltic states troops enter Western Ukraine, Green line established.

Are you thinking it could end up like East/West Germany?