[OFFICIAL] Ukraine Thread

[SueEllen]

I don't think his threats to Nato fringe nations are anything new. And he threatened the entire world not to "interfere" already.

There has been more talk what Nato retaliations would look like if chemical weapons are provably used this week, with phrases like "nothing is off the table" but it still seems that any overt military action is very unlikely.

Sweden might join Nato as a big slap in Putin's face*, but Finland would have to have big balls to do so given Russians can just stroll across the border. Many Finns have fallout bunkers (it might even be a legal requirement) due to residual fear of Russia and you are putting all your trust in Nato coming to your aid if joining does cause Russian retaliation.
*Of course, in places you can get from Russia to Sweden in no time at all so it's not really much of a buffer.

There is a risk he strolls into a Nato country by accident as the borders between nations aren't set in stone.

[d000hg]

There is a risk he strolls into a Nato country by accident as the borders between nations aren't set in stone.

And obviously in places, both sides of the border have quite rigid but incompatible views exactly where it is.

[DealorNoDeal]

If your goals are any or all of to (a) Minimise suffering, (b) Prevent western economies (especially the UK's) going completely tits up, as they are heading already, and (c) Reduce the chance of WW3 breaking out, either accidently or deliberately, then paradoxically the best option would be to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and let the whole tulip show to play out as quickly as possible.

The sanctions would have to be lifted too.

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I can't see there being any good outcome to this. Many more people are going to die. I don't have much optimism to be honest.

[d000hg]

I can't see there being any good outcome to this..

Even if Russia totally back-tracked and pulled out entirely tomorrow, half of Ukraine is in ruins, thousands are dead and the majority of their kids have been displaced (just think on that for a moment). Not to mention the economy - right now they're in emergency mode when things like national debt are irrelevant but the moment the immediate threat is removed we surely expect a huge recession in Ukraine? Seems like we're talking a generational impact plunging Ukraine into long-term poverty?

[NotAllThere]

The sanctions would have to be lifted too.

The problem with that scenario is that Putin will be more encouraged to try to repeat the process with another neighbour. The West must fight back.

[DealorNoDeal]

Not to mention the economy - right now they're in emergency mode when things like national debt are irrelevant but the moment the immediate threat is removed we surely expect a huge recession in Ukraine? Seems like we're talking a generational impact plunging Ukraine into long-term poverty?

I expect Ukraine will get massive financial help with reconstruction, reviving the economy etc. And although the cost of that will be high, it will probably be a fraction of the cost to the global economy from this war.

And, sadly, the war is far from over yet.

[d000hg]

Bad luck Whorty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61099131

Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says

[Whorty]

Bad luck Whorty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61099131

I know, saw that this morning and was well peeved! I was hoping to get myself a pretty little blonde girl to replace the one I was dating in Wiltshire ..... bl00dy stupid rules

[d000hg]

I know, saw that this morning and was well peeved! I was hoping to get myself a pretty little blonde girl to replace the one I was dating in Wiltshire ..... bl00dy stupid rules

Pretty homophobic though. You can get yourself a young chap but not a lass.

[AtW]

All that kind of thing is what the neocon lunatics in the US are longing to do, having stoked up this whole situation for years now in Ukraine and currently revelling in all the chaos and encouraging more, "fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian" as the saying goes.

If your goals are any or all of to (a) Minimise suffering, (b) Prevent western economies (especially the UK's) going completely tits up, as they are heading already, and (c) Reduce the chance of WW3 breaking out, either accidently or deliberately, then paradoxically the best option would be to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and let the whole tulip show to play out as quickly as possible.

Putin doesn't have either the manpower, economy, or probably even wish to spread conventional forces all over eastern Europe a la Russians in WW2, and all this type of escalationary talk like yours above is music to the ears of the lunatic neocons in Washington. But if your and their approach was adopted, and Putin felt threatened enough as a result, then who knows what might happen?

You want Ukraine to surrender like France did, in order to minimise your suffering from higher cost of petrol and especially diesel? Well that's not happening whether you like it or not.

The best and only way to limit costs to the world is to provide maximum assitance to Ukraine now so that she could defeat Russian aggression once and for all.

The Western world managed Covid for a very long time, it can surely manage few months of active fighting far away to destroy Russian land army - after that there will be big peace dividend in form of China deciding to wait 30-40 more years before they try to invade Taiwan.

The only reason Ukraine's SoF are not blowing up oil and gas pipelines inside Russia is to keep West happy - if things go south then you can bet your arse that there won't be deliveries of said commodities from Russia, which in any case going to stop soon.

P.S. 50th day of way and Russian Black Sea fleet flagship is out of action - that thing was designed to attack aircraft carrier groups, Ukraine is doing whole of West massive favour by effectively degrading most capable Russian forces, the end game will be removal of nukes from irresponsible country like Russia and the world will be massively better off after that.

IMHO - this is well worth dealing with somewhat higher petrol/diesel prices.