State of the Market

[jamesbrown]

So if you don't feel it when Sunak/Hunt proclaim that the UK economy has 'turned a corner', you're probably right!

It turned a corner into a tulip part of town where it got mugged.

[pjt]

I hope a GDP related post is on-topic enough for a 'State of the market' thread! If not, apologies and I'm happy to put it in the General section.

The only reason we're only in a 'technical recession' as opposed to a 'recession' is continued growth in population through Sunak's mass legal immigration. GDP per capita has been negative for a good few quarters now, -0.7% over 2023.

So if you don't feel it when Sunak/Hunt proclaim that the UK economy has 'turned a corner', you're probably right!

Certainly feeling like we've been in a recession at least the whole of this year. End of last year I was seeing jobs come up that suited me but since I've actually been looking in January its been dead.

[edison]

Certainly feeling like we've been in a recession at least the whole of this year. End of last year I was seeing jobs come up that suited me but since I've actually been looking in January its been dead.

Even discounting all the political uncertainty since prior to Brexit, there are so many long term structural UK economic issues, it's hard to see where any growth is going to come from over the next 5-10 years.

The UK economy is in a poor state relative to many other advanced industrialised countries and lack of business investment is a key cause.

For the last 15 years productivity growth has flatlined and real wages for many regions are actually lower than 2008. If GDP growth had carried on the long term trend from the 1960s, the average wage would be £10,700 higher than today.

Coupled with crumbling infrastructure and low public investment including education and healthcare and it's no surprise there's little growth or creation of skilled and well paid jobs.

[Fraidycat]

I hope a GDP related post is on-topic enough for a 'State of the market' thread! If not, apologies and I'm happy to put it in the General section.

The only reason we're only in a 'technical recession' as opposed to a 'recession' is continued growth in population through Sunak's mass legal immigration.

The FTSE 250 peaked 30 months ago! And has been in bear market (down >20%) for the last 20 months.

So that tells us pretty much the same story.

It still has to rally over 25% to get back to new highs.

[edison]

Spoke to a recruiter about a perm role today. Got the dreaded "you're too experienced for this role".

I could have almost done the role in my sleep and was a six figure salary/nice package. Ho hum.

[ladymuck]

Spoke to a recruiter about a perm role today. Got the dreaded "you're too experienced for this role".

I could have almost done the role in my sleep and was a six figure salary/nice package. Ho hum.

A good response to that is to say that you're looking to wind down over the next 5 years and so taking a less taxing job is exactly what you're looking for.

[Bluenose]

Negotiation? with a recruitment consultant? I thought I clicked on the Friday funnies page in General.......

The last time I successfully negotiated something was in 2008.

[BigDataPro]

https://www.ft.com/content/b48cfce5-...7-847da43d9a33

[malvolio]

https://www.ft.com/content/b48cfce5-...7-847da43d9a33

As always it depends what you measure and how. Use the criteria used by France for example and we were we aren't in recession. We also can't discount the impact of the swing in inflation over that period.

[Destiny2]

Afternoon all. I forgot to mention that I have been offered an Outside gig recently. I am waiting for a start date subject to vetting checks.