State of the Market

[willendure]

The tales of doom about house prices and the inevitable crash influenced me to continue renting for a long time.

If it wasn't for my wife, I'd be living in a tent. We have a house now.. I guess what I'm saying is that there is still a market, and some juice left in it.

Markets are by their nature unpredictable. For example, I have been saying for over a year that a big crash/recession is definitely coming. I thought it would be here easily by now but it isn't. I still feel pretty sure it is coming, but who knows? Maybe Trump fires Powell and the fed cuts rates and whamo, the US economy is on fire again and the rest of us are warmed by the glow. Or maybe it does come but its just that these things are by their nature really hard to predict - if it was easy, then shorting the market and making a packet would not be risky would it?

You weren't to know house prices would shoot up, due to interest rates being cut back to zero because of Covid. Covid was a black swan event, a random mutation (or was it, because I have heard serious scientists claim it was engineered). But certainly not something any of us could have predicted.

I quit a contract just before Covid arrived in part because banks were all going inside IR35. Turns out that got pushed out for a year, and I could have WFH for an entire year on a really good rate!

I think markets come and go, when its doom and gloom it seems impossible it will ever get better, just as when things are really good it seems inconceivable that things might turn south.

Personally I think we are set up for a crash, followed by a bail out, followed by the next business cycle. AI will be a skill in demand, as will a few other things, and contractors will be needed.

[SussexSeagull]

Spent many years on HPC and still don't really understand where young couples get the funds for their 'executive slave-boxes' and two lease cars. People I speak to don't understand this either, but the new estates just keep expanding.

I imagine the bank of mum and dad or otherwise being left money is probably a factor in a lot of cases.

[Protagoras]

I imagine the bank of mum and dad or otherwise being left money is probably a factor in a lot of cases.

I think that's true to some extent, but strongly suspect high debt appetites given that people have become used to cheap debt.

[uk contractor]

10 SC someone mentioned on here a few posts ago at Canary Wharf....... that's where HMRC have been for a number of years now LOL close to the action so they can count all their ill gotten gains from ordinary hard working people (and a few IT contractors I guess fall under that description !!)

[Dorkeaux]

Posting about HPC is triggering my PTSD.. The posters there have formed an echo chamber.

Sure, a house price crash might happen in the UK someday. But in the meantime, they are so resistant to accepting new data (because as we all know, changing your view is a sign of weakness) that they spend most of their mental energy praying for a crash and posting so they can be "right".

In the meantime, house prices have increased so much that a pleasant, easily mortgaged house is now unobtainium for low and middle earners.
The rental market is more expensive than mortgages (often) and is unstable with a lot of poor quality housing.

Twenty-odd years is a long time to be wrong...

[oliverson]

Posting about HPC is triggering my PTSD.. The posters there have formed an echo chamber.

Sure, a house price crash might happen in the UK someday. But in the meantime, they are so resistant to accepting new data (because as we all know, changing your view is a sign of weakness) that they spend most of their mental energy praying for a crash and posting so they can be "right".

In the meantime, house prices have increased so much that a pleasant, easily mortgaged house is now unobtainium for low and middle earners.
The rental market is more expensive than mortgages (often) and is unstable with a lot of poor quality housing.

Twenty-odd years is a long time to be wrong...

Back in 2007/8 I was contracting down in Brighton and one of the contractors there was certain there would be an almighty crash, so he continued renting and didn't buy. At the same time, there was a web site called 'propertysnake' where everybody was speculating the 'imminent' crash with 'industry leaders' predicting 30% + loss in value. Aside from a short temporary correction it became business as usual. I wonder if that contractor is still renting.

Closer to today, just before the pandemic I worked with a guy who was so convinced of a crash that he sold his flat in Isle of Dogs and moved in with friends. Subsequently the market exploded !!

[Dorkeaux]

Back in 2007/8 I was contracting down in Brighton and one of the contractors there was certain there would be an almighty crash, so he continued renting and didn't buy. At the same time, there was a web site called 'propertysnake' where everybody was speculating the 'imminent' crash with 'industry leaders' predicting 30% + loss in value. Aside from a short temporary correction it became business as usual. I wonder if that contractor is still renting.

Closer to today, just before the pandemic I worked with a guy who was so convinced of a crash that he sold his flat in Isle of Dogs and moved in with friends. Subsequently the market exploded !!

There but for the grace of God go I.. Fortunately my delusion didn't last long under the blazing nesting instincts of my wife.

Internet forums can start to get echo-y.
The people in contracts (probably?) don't post as often as people who aren't, so you might think the market is worse than it is.
This in turn might influence your actions, lack of actions, confidence, bearing..

Again, I don't know what the magic sauce is, but I work with buildings full of contractors.
All have some gaps in their history, and most have taken a bit of a haircut in rates.

[Bluenose]

August 2025 - state of the market, 60k, perm, leeds, 5 days onsite.

On historical averages we have clicked over to approximatley June 2008 rather than May 2008, so thats a plus. Only 6 months to go before a bit of an uptick.

Rachel Reeves - hold my pint.

[Manic]

I've posted a link in the Opportunities thread for a SAP 4/Hana Senior PM 6 months+ London/Hybrid if it appeals to anyone. It will be inside IR35.

[sadkingbilly]

there're still reqs for Z/OS/VM/USS sysprogs, but i think i'm alone here.