DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[PCTNN]

Yes, it's grim.

My partner's boss went to a birthday party at someone's house over the weekend. They were in 40 people. As of today all 40 people have tested positive.

On the other hand, my partner and I went to a wedding on Saturday with 100+ people and so far both of us are testing negative and we haven't been pinged yet.

Either immunity system is the freaking bomb or lateral flow tests are garbage

[d000hg]

On the other hand, my partner and I went to a wedding on Saturday with 100+ people and so far both of us are testing negative and we haven't been pinged yet.

Either immunity system is the freaking bomb or lateral flow tests are garbage

At least one person there has to have it... and it depends if you mean a wedding service with everyone wearing masks, or a big lash with everyone swapping fluids until 3am. You might just have gotten lucky, let's hope so.

[Whorty]

At least one person there has to have it... and it depends if you mean a wedding service with everyone wearing masks, or a big lash with everyone swapping fluids until 3am. You might just have gotten lucky, let's hope so.

Can't believe I'm still testing negative ... mate and me ended up at a packed Shoreditch bar Friday night full of young hipsters ..... 2 -ve LFTs so far, will do another tomorrow and Saturday morning.

Or maybe this covid thing is all just a hoax

[mattster]

On the other hand, my partner and I went to a wedding on Saturday with 100+ people and so far both of us are testing negative and we haven't been pinged yet.

Either immunity system is the freaking bomb or lateral flow tests are garbage

Median incubation is something like 5.5 days, so you wouldn't really expect a positive result until tomorrow or Friday. I and the rest of my family are still testing negative with fully infected son in the house (symptomatic/pos test since Saturday). Crunch time is the next 3 days I reckon.

[AtW]

"Omicron now dominant Covid variant in London, analysis suggests

Some 51.8% of a sample of new coronavirus cases in London with specimen dates for December 11 and 12 were found to have S gene target failure (SGTF) - a way of detecting the likely presence of Omicron."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...083aad70475f86

Omicron must be incubating quicker to get such speeds

[mattster]

Omicron must be incubating quicker to get such speeds

That does seem possible, wonder if there's any data on that?

[AtW]

That does seem possible, wonder if there's any data on that?

Have not seen any yet, but much quicker incubation seems necessary for such fast spread.

[mattster]

Have not seen any yet, but much quicker incubation seems necessary for such fast spread.

Does that necessarily follow? If you assume a doubling time of 2 days, then you could achieve that by infecting 2 people within 2 days, or 10 people within a week. I suppose if you had a solid R number you could back out the time until infectious?

[PCTNN]

Crunch time is the next 3 days I reckon.

That's my biggest fear. If I test positive from now that's it, our Christmas plans are fecked

[Lost It]

Hospitalisation rates in the UK are currently 6.4 per 100,000. That's 0.0064%, rather less than the above "even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, " and the bulk of those are for unvaccinated patients. So why trust the rest of the article?

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

As for the evolutionary pressure thesis, it's neither the Darwin/Wallace speciation mechanism nor Lamarck's deterministic one but the rather more recent studies on how evolution works and the speed at which Darwin's "beneficial mutations" operate in a real world population. Facebook is oddly quiet on that subject sadly, so I had to go and read some published (and peer reviewed) papers. It's what happens when you have a life-long interest in the subject. But agsint ignoraance, the Gods themselves strive in vain.

Again this information is sadly lacking in, erm, information.
Without knowing what section of the population, i.e. does it effect people of certain age groups, ethnicity, what other ailments make it worse, if you are a heavy woodbine smoker with damaged lungs are you more likely to catch it or less likely to die if you do, if you have diabetes or are suffering some other ailment, reduced immunity, already had it in one form or another, have "long" covid, there's lots of information missing. Information that might just make a section of the population not worry so much?

Until this is included in the information released then the results, up to and including Darwinism effects don't really help. They just add worry.

There's lies, there's damned lies then there's statistics.