DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[d000hg]

Latest from south africa: Omicron killing just 10% the numbers Delta did at same level of infections.

Click for video interview:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/healt...t-cnni-vpx.cnn

But infection numbers are exploding. We already went over this, less lethal but very fast transmission can lead to a sudden spike in cases which risks overload of NHS services. If you get it badly and cannot access a hospital you are in a scary situation.

[SueEllen]

But infection numbers are exploding. We already went over this, less lethal but very fast transmission can lead to a sudden spike in cases which risks overload of NHS services. If you get it badly and cannot access a hospital you are in a scary situation.

The numbers are not exploding as people can't get PCR tests....

[d000hg]

The numbers are not exploding as people can't get PCR tests....

55k cases yesterday... 2nd highest in the world. Omicron is known to be becoming dominant.
Positive tests does not equate with cases, even when tests are not limited it's estimated only about half the cases are caught.

[mattster]

But infection numbers are exploding. We already went over this, less lethal but very fast transmission can lead to a sudden spike in cases which risks overload of NHS services. If you get it badly and cannot access a hospital you are in a scary situation.

Milder, but not completely benign, is almost worse in some ways as it gives more oxygen to the mitigation deniers, thus probably ensuring less compliance, higher number of cases etc - and small differences in increased transmission make huge differences to case numbers down the road.

Covid has always inhabited that uncomfortable space which allows enough people to write off the risk, while still being dangerous enough to cause real problems. I often wonder how the pandemic would have panned out if there had been, say, 10% mortality (perhaps including kids) instead of < 1%. Would total deaths be higher or lower? My guess is lower, and it would all be in the rear view mirror.

[d000hg]

Milder, but not completely benign, is almost worse in some ways as it gives more oxygen to the mitigation deniers, thus probably ensuring less compliance, higher number of cases etc - and small differences in increased transmission make huge differences to case numbers down the road.

Covid has always inhabited that uncomfortable space which allows enough people to write off the risk, while still being dangerous enough to cause real problems. I often wonder how the pandemic would have panned out if there had been, say, 10% mortality (perhaps including kids) instead of < 1%. Would total deaths be higher or lower? My guess is lower, and it would all be in the rear view mirror.

It's a good point. So many of the 'deniers' get it and report "it really was just a bad cold" as if that proves they were right the whole time. I thought Boris and Trump both being seriously ill with it would shift opinion but it doesn't really seem to have.
Even now, I only know one person 1st-hand who has been seriously ill so to a large extent it's still something "happening to other people" and I think that's the same to many. If we had corpses piling up in the roads like in India people would probably take things more seriously

[mattster]

It's a good point. So many of the 'deniers' get it and report "it really was just a bad cold" as if that proves they were right the whole time. I thought Boris and Trump both being seriously ill with it would shift opinion but it doesn't really seem to have.
Even now, I only know one person 1st-hand who has been seriously ill so to a large extent it's still something "happening to other people" and I think that's the same to many. If we had corpses piling up in the roads like in India people would probably take things more seriously

I know quite a few who had nasty bouts of it, to the extent that they described it as by far the worst illness they had ever experienced, but not to the extent of hospitalisation (so "mild"). We did have a (mid 40's, fit, unvaxxed) dad of a girl in my younger son's class die of it within 2 days of infection about a month ago but I didn't really know him. In terms of infections though it is as bad as ever here - I heard only this morning that my brother (triple jabbed, had it in first wave) and nephew (different side of family) have it now as well. And the postman.

[ladymuck]

I see the Red list has been scrapped as the horse has long since bolted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ron-takes-hold

[d000hg]

Indeed, it's not really talked about that "mild" can be anything but. And even neglecting long Covid, the headline figures are only about deaths but many, many more people end up with life-changing injuries/illness afterwards.

I think your postman has been delivering more than letters.

[d000hg]

I see the Red list has been scrapped as the horse has long since bolted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ron-takes-hold

yeah. This is one of the main arguments against nightclub passports too, which I hadn't realised until today. Interestingly in Scotland they are agreeing with rebel Tories on the basis that a 2-jab-passport is false security.

[PCTNN]

In terms of infections though it is as bad as ever here - I heard only this morning that my brother (triple jabbed, had it in first wave) and nephew (different side of family) have it now as well. And the postman.

Yes, it's grim.

My partner's boss went to a birthday party at someone's house over the weekend. They were in 40 people. As of today all 40 people have tested positive.