DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[malvolio]

Apparently (according to news this morning) the Pfizer vac does provide some limited protection against Omni.

Even so, the impact of Omni is not so bad, with people managing to get through with what feels like normal cold/flu symptoms. This is the normal evolution of a virus: as it becomes more transmissible, it often loses its potency.

That's basic Darwinism. Any parasitic organism that doesn't reach a balance between transmission and lethality will not survive.

[d000hg]

The question they should be answering is "How many people are getting sick from Omicron and how many of those are in hospital". So far, the answer seems to be "hardly any"...

We won't know for a while because you typically don't end up in hospital for some time. And we only have a few hundred confirmed cases (clearly wildly inaccurate) to check anyway.

And no, the questions we need answers to are:
1)How much more or less dangerous is it compared to Delta for those who get it
2)How much more or less transmissible is it
3)To what extent do vaccines prevent infection and particularly, serious illness

We're still seeing multiple hundred people die every day. We still have thousands in hospital and ~1000 admitted per day. About 2% of those with positive tests still end up in hospital... and this is all with a highly vaccinated population using very effective vaccines. As we enter the worst part of the winter, a significant drop in vaccine efficacy will directly lead to a non-trivial hike in hospitalisations and serious illness. This is basic self-evident statistics.

The UK is barely keeping a lid on things without restrictions, against Delta - it is just about managing unlike many EU neighbours but the situation is clearly precarious.

[NigelJK]

Those cells they didn't know existed 200 years ago....

But still 'jabbed' anyway ...

[d000hg]

That's basic Darwinism. Any parasitic organism that doesn't reach a balance between transmission and lethality will not survive.

No, it's rollocks. The "diseases mutate to become less dangerous" line is just not true. When mortality is <10% there are always loads of people to infect. Neither does ChimpMaster have access to medical data to make the claims he does. Nobody does yet.

You're starting to sound like some of the anti-vaxxers in the fringes of my church.

[SueEllen]

But still 'jabbed' anyway ...

You reminded me that NF posted this as part as his Monday links - https://undark.org/2021/11/12/from-c...s-of-vaccines/

[AtW]

That's basic Darwinism. Any parasitic organism that doesn't reach a balance between transmission and lethality will not survive.

Yeah, it won't survive if mortality is 90%.

But 10% mortality for a virus with very high R (like Omicron) won't make a dent in transmission, plus people don't drop dead straight away from it - takes weeks whilst main infection is spread early on.

[mattster]

That's basic Darwinism. Any parasitic organism that doesn't reach a balance between transmission and lethality will not survive.

Why do people keep repeating this? Did smallpox reach a balance between transmission and lethality? No, it didn't, despite a mortality rate in excess of 30% - only vaccines stopped smallpox. I've already quoted the immunoligist who called your position "one of the most baffling bits of misinformation on the internet" so I won't do it again, but really - you should stop.

[NotAllThere]

Is this the same Professor who ignores nearly 200 years of immunology 2 years of covid research that says that if you have had Covid you are immune from catching the same strain again?

FTFY

The 200 years of immunology includes viruses such as measles, which has been demonstrated fairly conclusively that once you've had it, then you're immune for life. https://www.science.org/content/arti...-people-longer

I suggest that Neil Ferguson may have got some things wrong, but he knows far more about immunology than you do - or other idiots who routinely deride him. So don't be a prat.

[NotAllThere]

Why do people keep repeating this?

Because it has an element of truth about it and is easy to understand. HTH.

[mattster]

Because it has an element of truth about it and is easy to understand. HTH.

But the first part isn't true, is it? Making ease or otherwise of understanding irrelevant.

But experts say this expectation has no scientific basis. “Put simply, this has been one of the most baffling misinformation myths peddled during the pandemic,” said Prof Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham. “There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence.”