R>1

[d000hg]

Is that last part true?
If we generalise masks as 100% effective at preventing transmission (clearly not true) and say 50% of infected people wear masks, doesn't that half the number of infections and mean R is similarly halved? Or not?

And yes we rely on others. But collectively we are responsible. I am personally quite happy if they mandate mask-wearing in certain places, in fact it seems strongly advisable. And it needs to be made extremely clear if shops, etc, can continue to require them or not before we get ugly "you can't make me" scenes when someone is politely asked to mask up. Seen on twitter people saying "if I'm asked to wear a mask in a shop on Monday, I will leave and never return". Bunch of tools.

[mattster]

There was a guy on the radio this morning that said if 30% of people stopped wearing masks, they would effectively be useless. I didn't listen long or closely enough to actually understand why he thinks this should be the case. Maybe I'll go an read about it now..

[mattster]

OK, well I couldn't find whoever was talking this morning on R4, and the only decent looking model I could find seems to support your hypothesis that it should be a linear drop off - which indeed the graphs below show. They reckon on something like a 50-75% "effectiveness". Obviously the more that wear masks the better, tho, and I don't understand why some people who just want this whole thing to end (like all of us) just can't bear to inconvenience themselves for a while longer - since it will be over quicker that way.

From: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/d...rspa.2020.0376

[AtW]

95% effectiveness is N95 masks (not reused for a long time, say once a day), one would have thought by now there will be plenty of those for everybody, with fancy fashionable labels and stuff, and not wearing one anywhere inside would have been punishable by work in local hospital Covid ward.

[ladymuck]

95% effectiveness is N95 masks (not reused for a long time, say once a day), one would have thought by now there will be plenty of those for everybody, with fancy fashionable labels and stuff, and not wearing one anywhere inside would have been punishable by work in local hospital Covid ward.

The fashionable ones are unlikely to be N95 (or FFP2) compliant. The absolute best mask, as recently evidenced in a study, is FFP3 which is 98% effective IIRC

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/...s-dramatically

[AtW]

The absolute best mask, as recently evidenced in a study, is FFP3 which is 98% effective IIRC

Yeah, I wear these since start of this tulip - makes me look like I love playing Fallout 4 too much...

[d000hg]

OK, well I couldn't find whoever was talking this morning on R4, and the only decent looking model I could find seems to support your hypothesis that it should be a linear drop off - which indeed the graphs below show. They reckon on something like a 50-75% "effectiveness".

I guess "effectively useless" is based on a target R. I am not quite sure I follow all the graphs but in the bottom-rght one at least you can kind of see a 70% mask-wearing value is where the R value crosses the 1 line?

[mattster]

I guess "effectively useless" is based on a target R. I am not quite sure I follow all the graphs but in the bottom-rght one at least you can kind of see a 70% mask-wearing value is where the R value crosses the 1 line?

Yes, I suppose the effect on the R rate is linear, but the effect of the R rate is exponential. So if that 30% non compliance makes the difference between an R rate of 2 compared to less than 1, then that ultimately has a huge effect. Actually, having read around a bit on masks and I am surprised at just how effective they seem to be. Madness to stop now, given it is such a simple intervention and we are all so used to wearing them anyway.

[AtW]

Actually, having read around a bit on masks and I am surprised at just how effective they seem to be. Madness to stop now, given it is such a simple intervention and we are all so used to wearing them anyway.

They are doing it to conduct what is in effect a "forced vaccination" via infection of those who would not otherwise vaccinate, at a price of death for those who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons.

Daily infections now close to daily number of first doze of vaccine given.

[d000hg]

https://srv1.worldometers.info/coronavirus

As of yesterday's data it looks like we'll never get out of the top 20 deaths/population now. Meanwhile USA and the rest of Western Europe appears to have suppressed it though I am not sure to what extent they have lifted restrictions in Spain, France, etc - they might follow our surge in coming months.