R>1

[AtW]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rime-minister/

Sane article, for a change, for ToryScumGraph

[d000hg]

It looks like they drew it with their child's coloured crayons.

[mattster]

Given the estimated R rate of 6 in the Netherlands after their reopening experiment, you might need a bigger graph.

[d000hg]

Given the estimated R rate of 6 in the Netherlands after their reopening experiment, you might need a bigger graph.

How many Dutch had antibodies?

[SueEllen]

It looks like they drew it with their child's coloured crayons.

Yellow, green and orange are missing....

[AtW]

Given the estimated R rate of 6 in the Netherlands after their reopening experiment, you might need a bigger graph.

A couple more mutations (due to spread from "reopening") and we'll be in the measeles territory

[SueEllen]

A couple more mutations (due to spread from "reopening") and we'll be in the measeles territory

You forgot about us creating and spreading a vaccine resistant variant.

Maybe one that kills of young people.......

[AtW]

You forgot about us creating and spreading a vaccine resistant variant. Maybe one that kills of young people.......

A 10% mortality variant won't slow down virus that spreads a lot, especialy if it takes few weeks to die. Even 30-40% MERS/SARSv1 won't slow it down that much.

[d000hg]

You forgot about us creating and spreading a vaccine resistant variant.

Maybe one that kills of young people.......

We take that risk every year with Flu, surely? A vaccine resistant variant just means we tweak the vaccines, not that it's a superbug like MRSA. I'm not sure how likely it is a mutation will drastically increase how dangerous the disease is - is that typical? Chicken pox for instance and mumps are both very very transmissible, and Flu, but after all these years we aren't dealing with super-chicken-pox, or super-measles for that matter. Anyone?

[d000hg]

We in England are in a fairly unique position, to be removing all restrictions in the middle of a surge. Cases are growing similar to Christmas but now we're relaxing rather than tightening the rules:





From a purely academic standpoint, what happens next will be fascinating.
50 deaths today. EVERYTHING is riding on the next few weeks. I'm pretty glad I live in rural County Durham, don't think I could hack crowded London in all this!