R>1

[AtW]

“Prof Tom Wenseleers, at the University of Leuven in Belgium, who worked closely with UK scientists on the spread of the Kent variant, also said the Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the current most widespread one.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inister-admits

New lockdown guaranteed - but first Boris will pile bodies in the tens of thousands, again.

[d000hg]

Our dominant is already far more transmissible than Covid Classic and this hasn't impacted the recovery. Transmissibility in itself is not such a big deal, especially when it's already so very infectious to begin with.

I think we can probably safely assume a big increase among the young as things open up from next week, the 18-30 range who are not offered vaccines and are the least cautious anyway. Maybe we just let that burn itself out?

[AtW]

Transmissibility in itself is not such a big deal, especially when it's already so very infectious to begin with.

Transmissibility in itself is a BIG ******* DEAL as it directly affects R number.

If that variant from India is indeed 60% more transmissible than Kent variant _and_ Vauxhall Zeneca not as effective then we are ****ed, again.

[d000hg]

Transmissibility in itself is a BIG ******* DEAL as it directly affects R number.

If that variant from India is indeed 60% more transmissible than Kent variant _and_ Vauxhall Zeneca not as effective then we are ****ed, again.

Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference. You can pretty much assume everyone you have close contact with is going to catch it.

Now lack of vaccine efficacy IS a big deal. But that doesn't seem to be proven.

[AtW]

Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference.

Beyond point of "we are now totally ****ed" it sure won't make a big difference, but it enough to shift beyond that point? That's what makes the difference: 60% on top of Kent's variant might just do it.

[minestrone]

It's only spreading in low vitamin D areas with below average take up of the vaccine where they don't bother their arse staying apart.

Keep to pubs and you will be quite safe.

[AtW]

“According to the latest scientific modelling by government advisers, a variant that is as transmissible as the Kent variant, and which has some vaccine resistance, “could easily lead to another peak of double or treble the size of that seen in January 2021 if no interventions were taken”. “

https://www.ft.com/content/a6730381-...9-ef158e48e058

But don’t you worry - CUK’s own Dumb and Dumber say it’s ok

[jayn200]

Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference. You can pretty much assume everyone you have close contact with is going to catch it.

Now lack of vaccine efficacy IS a big deal. But that doesn't seem to be proven.

How transmissible do you think it is?... Only like half of people (depends which study you look at) who live with someone with an active symptomatic infection... get infected.

So I wouldn't just assume everyone is going to get infected.. those are the people with the closest contact possible and still only 50% are getting infected.

They have no idea if something is actually 60% more transmissible anyway, it's based off a ton of assumptions and it's a garbage number. It might not even be more transmissible at all, just might be dominant strain at the same time infections increase due to other reasons. It's impossible to measure accurately since none of this analysis is being done in a controlled environment and rules and behaviors are constantly changing.

[AtW]

Wow, 3 early winning candidates for CUK COTY 2021

[cojak]

It's rising here, just in certain groups, who have all taken today and tomorrow off, to not have massive family parties.




I expect a local lockdown in 10 days.

No different to 25th and 26th December 2020 then...

(Apart from the fact that I've got my jabs, so I'm alright Jack.)