State of the Market

[squarepeg]

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u...d-from-the-uk/

Immigration was higher than expected in 2023. The majority made up by Indians.

Ricki has done us over. Called over his home boys and now the UK has unemployed, highly skilled workforce.

Shirley this was the point of HS2. To get more people working in London, effectively. With COVID and WFH what's the point in HS2 and who will use it?

There is only one way out of this and that is to make London a 24hr city. We could increase the GDP of London by having shops and food outlets open all hours. Just my suggestion btw

It wasn't him. IR35 legislation went into full force in 2019. All gov, banking, and other sectors made contractors an offer they could not refuse: go inside or **** off. Smaller clients used outside IR35 contractors for a bit, but gave up. I think we are seeing the last of the outside IR35 roles this year, because Labour detest small (well, micro) businesses. They want large permie workforce, because that's where they get their votes and money from trade unions.

[SussexSeagull]

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u...d-from-the-uk/

Immigration was higher than expected in 2023. The majority made up by Indians.

Ricki has done us over. Called over his home boys and now the UK has unemployed, highly skilled workforce.

Shirley this was the point of HS2. To get more people working in London, effectively. With COVID and WFH what's the point in HS2 and who will use it?

There is only one way out of this and that is to make London a 24hr city. We could increase the GDP of London by having shops and food outlets open all hours. Just my suggestion btw

I was no Rishi fan but giving out Visas to stop companies having to pay decent wages/day rates was going on for years before he took charge.

[SussexSeagull]

It wasn't him. IR35 legislation went into full force in 2019. All gov, banking, and other sectors made contractors an offer they could not refuse: go inside or **** off. Smaller clients used outside IR35 contractors for a bit, but gave up. I think we are seeing the last of the outside IR35 roles this year, because Labour detest small (well, micro) businesses. They want large permie workforce, because that's where they get their votes and money from trade unions.

None of this can be laid at the door of the Labour government yet.

At the moment I genuinely think we have bigger worries than IR35. There is a lack of contracts full stop and by all accounts the permanent market isn’t much better.

[dsc]

None of this can be laid at the door of the Labour government yet.

At the moment I genuinely think we have bigger worries than IR35. There is a lack of contracts full stop and by all accounts the permanent market isn’t much better.

It's also not just the UK, look at the US and how many people can't find work over there, especially PMs it seems, it's a bloody blood bath.

High interest rates mean everything is on hold, everyone is cutting costs, yet everyone also wants higher profits, market isn't going to go up on it's own and how do you "grow" if you can't invest? cut costs everywhere, trim it down to the bare bones and see how long it takes for rates to drop and whether you can wait out the tulip conditions.

[Fraidycat]

There is a lack of contracts full stop and by all accounts the permanent market isn’t much better.

I follow a particular niche skill, both contract and perm. Perm roles for this skill normally sit on the job boards for months, the last two ads i saw posted vanished in days.. My guess almost certainly filled and not pulled.

When companies can fill perm positions with relative ease there is less need to find expensive contractors to fill skills gaps.

[Protagoras]

It's also not just the UK, look at the US and how many people can't find work over there, especially PMs it seems, it's a bloody blood bath.

High interest rates mean everything is on hold, everyone is cutting costs, yet everyone also wants higher profits, market isn't going to go up on it's own and how do you "grow" if you can't invest? cut costs everywhere, trim it down to the bare bones and see how long it takes for rates to drop and whether you can wait out the tulip conditions.

Blimey, that's scary. I keep thinking about re-retiring but that might be a one-way street even though I only work directly with a couple of clients rather than in the 'open' market.

It's crazy that businesses would think that current interest rates are 'high' when really they're pretty much average - businesses and consumers simply got used to cheap money but it was inevitable that rates would go up.

[Cookielove]

There are now so many candidates we are well and truly sunk....another IT role on LI 480 applicants ...the visa system has well and truly scuppered the UK workforce what a sad state of affairs

[dsc]

Blimey, that's scary. I keep thinking about re-retiring but that might be a one-way street even though I only work directly with a couple of clients rather than in the 'open' market.

It's crazy that businesses would think that current interest rates are 'high' when really they're pretty much average - businesses and consumers simply got used to cheap money but it was inevitable that rates would go up.

If you know clients directly, then I think you'd be fine, it's the "open" market that seems screwed completely.

As for interest rates, I agree, but we had it so good for so long and so many companies have tulip ton of debt, that now that is starting to bite them on the ass. I think sooner or later they will have to realise that they can only play this "no investment, no extra costs" game for so long, you can only fake profits for a limited time and then reality kicks in. It will however allow them to trim their teams to the very bone in the mean time.

[SchumiStars]

Todays hot role.

Manchester, 400pd inside requiring SC.

I worked for the same client in 2021 for £500 outside without SC

[willendure]

It's crazy that businesses would think that current interest rates are 'high' when really they're pretty much average - businesses and consumers simply got used to cheap money but it was inevitable that rates would go up.

It is a bit crazy but...

When money was too cheap with interest rates near zero, a lot of money was borrowed. Much of that debt still exists. If interest rates had not gone to zero, the debt load would be much lower. So a 5% rate now is quite a different proposition to a typical 5% rate in the early 2000s.

There is an expectation that rates will go down again back to the super low levels. I think this might happen as an emergency measure when it really becomes clear that 5% was too much. But that lets the inflation genie back out of the bottle. I still think 5% was overkill, the inflation must have been caused by covid bounceback and supply shock, not money supply. But you can see, we have this tight rope balancing act now - can't have low rates because inflation, can't have high rates because economy dead on its feet. Long term it would be better to let the misallocated capital die and start again rather than turn on the stimulus taps again, but can you imagine the carnage?

No wonder Gold is doing so well.

Unfortunately Labour seem to think that taxation is the way to create money. “Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence." - nice Ayn Rand quote for you.

I watched an interview with Kwasi Kwarteng recently, someone we love to hate and dismiss as part of the Liz Truss debacle. Actually comes accross really well. He recognized the above scenario and said his plan was to reduce taxes to stimulate the economy and start to rebuild it. This is how wealth is created. He claims his main mistake was moving too fast without adequetly preparing everyone in advance - his autum budget was even brought forward to Sept because he was so keen to get on with it.