State of the Market

[dsc]

Got a PM on LI today about a contract which starts Q1 2025 they said they wanted to make sure things are in place. By lining up a contractor 6 months in advance? wtaf?

[Fraidycat]

FFS this is one tulip market. Think I will kill myself might be easier than getting a contract.

Hang in there, things will improve at some point over the next six to 12 months, maybe even sooner:

The FTSE 250 is finally breaking out to the upside (above 20,600) signalling the worst is over. The UK Contractor jobs market and the UK stock market are historically very correlated.

[GJABS]

... The UK Contractor jobs market and the UK stock market are historically very correlated.

What, as in both have been historically tulip

[pjt]

Got a PM on LI today about a contract which starts Q1 2025 they said they wanted to make sure things are in place. By lining up a contractor 6 months in advance? wtaf?

At least you have something lined up. At this rate I'll still be on the bench :-0

[Fraidycat]

What, as in both have been historically tulip

The FTSE 100 has been tulip since year 2000.

The FTSE 250 had been doing really well, killing the FTSE 100, both were around 6000 points in year 2000, but the FTSE 250 reached almost 25,000 while the FTSE 100 only reached 7000 by mid 2021.

That ended in late 2021 when the BOE raised rates. Then the FTSE 250 turned tulipe too , along with the contractor market, while the FTSE 100 has rallied to new highs.

But historically all contractor market slumps have been correlated with the FTSE 250 slumps, and this one is no different, i posted this chart of the FTSE 250 nine months ago, so its a little bit out of date on the right hand side, the 250 has rallied a bit since.

[edison]

The FTSE 100 has been tulip since year 2000.

The FTSE 250 had been doing really well, killing the FTSE 100, both were around 6000 points in year 2000, but the FTSE 250 reached almost 25,000 while the FTSE 100 only reached 7000 by mid 2021.

That ended in late 2021 when the BOE raised rates. Then the FTSE 250 turned tulipe too , along with the contractor market, while the FTSE 100 has rallied to new highs.

But historically all contractor market slumps have been correlated with the FTSE 250 slumps, and this one is no different, i posted this chart of the FTSE 250 nine months ago, so its a little bit out of date on the right hand side, the 250 has rallied a bit since.

I know you are a keen advocate for the FTSE250 / contractor market correlation but have you seen the constituents and weighting of the index these days?

Financials (mostly investment trusts) 24 %
FMCG 13%
Consumer discretionary 12%
Industrials 12%
Energy 12%
Heath 12%

And way down in last place, technology at a pathetic 1%.

The FTSE100 is just as bad if not worse.

Where is all the economic growth going to come from?

I can see the contractor market finally improving in 2025 after the election and fingers crossed, interest rates come down a percentage point or two.

But I really worry about prospects for anything other than anaemic growth for years to come.

[unixman]

Frustrating, if you don't have it, is the number of roles requiring DV clearance. That is, requiring you to already have DV clearance. Creates a chicken-and-egg situation, and a two tier market IMO. Notwithstanding, if vetted, I would probably pass SC/DV.

This preponderance of DV roles is probably just a perception, affecting only the bottom-of-the-barrel scrapings which compose the present job market. But it's still slightly annoying to see, today, my perfect contract, 10 miles away, requiring, of course, pre-existing DV.

Jim

[dsc]

Frustrating, if you don't have it, is the number of roles requiring DV clearance. That is, requiring you to already have DV clearance. Creates a chicken-and-egg situation, and a two tier market IMO. Notwithstanding, if vetted, I would probably pass SC/DV.

This preponderance of DV roles is probably just a perception, affecting only the bottom-of-the-barrel scrapings which compose the present job market. But it's still slightly annoying to see, today, my perfect contract, 10 miles away, requiring, of course, pre-existing DV.

Jim

There's no guarantee you'd get any of those even if you have DV, the market is so weird now, that perfect matches mean jack tulip. Also the amount of people applying means you'd probably get severely undercut by those more desperate than you.

[PerfectStorm]

Frustrating, if you don't have it, is the number of roles requiring DV clearance. That is, requiring you to already have DV clearance. Creates a chicken-and-egg situation, and a two tier market IMO. Notwithstanding, if vetted, I would probably pass SC/DV.

This preponderance of DV roles is probably just a perception, affecting only the bottom-of-the-barrel scrapings which compose the present job market. But it's still slightly annoying to see, today, my perfect contract, 10 miles away, requiring, of course, pre-existing DV.

Jim

They really make work for themselves by making such roles Inside IR35 at tuppence ha'penny per day, with a 9 month wait for a start date... then wonder why they can't hire anyone

[sreed]

Yes, most of the jobs he was going for were PMO related (Head Of/Lead/Manager etc) or Project Manager roles. He has lots of experience in both areas. I can only assume a fair proportion were not real roles.

As a generalist PM, I’m quite surprised to hear about your friend’s experience with looking for PM roles, at least based on when I was last in the market (last summer), and the superficial view of what I’m seeing since then on the job portals.

One that he could find more than 1-2 contract roles to apply for on a daily basis and two that he couldn’t find a suitable role for many months. Perhaps he’s been quite discerning or is locationally restricted?

The pay on offer isn’t anything to shout about but there are a decent number of inside tech-ish/generalist PM roles out there paying £500+ imho. All the inside PM roles I’ve landed in the past few years have been through applying on LI, PSR, Reed and following up with a short note on LI. I only get the odd contact from recruiters on LI, it’s almost always for a perm role.