State of the Market

[The_Equalizer]

They say the lag effect of interest rates hitting the economy takes 6 to 9 months..

First interest rate hike by BOE was December 2021, Contractor market noticeably starts slowing down around 7 months later.

The FTSE 250 also began to correct in January 2022 and was down over 25% by mid year. That also marked a major change in sentiment.

Every time the FTSE 250 has fallen by 25%+, the contractor jobs market has been badly affected: 2002, 2008, 2020, and 2022.

I see the FTSE 250 has bounced back somewhat; probably to its 5 year mid-range point. What is your general thoughts of a correlation between a recovery of the FTSE 250 and an up turn in the market?

[Fraidycat]

I see the FTSE 250 has bounced back somewhat; probably to its 5 year mid-range point. What is your general thoughts of a correlation between a recovery of the FTSE 250 and an up turn in the market?

Yes, the FTSE 250 fell -31% but is currently down around -21%. It rallied to the -15% level earlier this year.
So we want to see the FTSE250 break out above 20,700. That would indicate bullish action and possibly the worst is behind us. But there is also also the prospect of recession in the UK and/or the US sometime in the next six months, that could send the stock markets down to new lows.

[gruntling]

I don't believe It's anything to do with IR35. Before the bear contract market, I was seeing plenty of outside roles based on Statements of Work.

I think it's just general economic conditions (interest rate hikes) hitting the IT contract market first.

I'd go further and say I'd expect to see serious general unemployment in most sectors of the economy when the inflation (caused by Covid QE) terminates (supposed to be latter half of the year) due to the Phillips curve. I don't think interest rates will ever drop much, and the economy will have to adjust to higher rates (more like pre-2008) permanently.

None of this is good news, I'm sorry to say. I'm sure the contract market will recover at some point (with reduced rates?), but I doubt it's this year.

[GigiBronz]

I am still getting calls for Bank of America (in Bromley yohoo) and had received an interview request after about 200 applications on job serve(no feedback).
The market is completely dead.

I had an agent go honest (probably a moment of weakness) and he said that I shouldn't even bother applying to BoA and Morgan Stanley. The hiring managers don't even request to look at the cv's after starting the search.

I believe also that we should look with more compassion at the people that are struggling, most of the working people are a few months away from living on the street. It is how the economy works in 2023. Even if you are on 9k but you live in Central London because ... duuuh work requires for you to be in the office there.
Rent takes 40% of it, food, going out occasionally, childcare is a robbery. You might be fortunate for your partner to work also but that is not a given.

My advice for people that are struggling currently, IT WILL NOT GET ANY BETTER. DO WHAT YOU CAN NOW. I would sell all my possessions, sell house if with mortgage, or put it on airbnb for the summer. Sell the car. Get a modest cheap apartment or move to Europe / somewhere else very cheap in the world and enjoy the tulipshow.

There were some wise words somewhere that: If the regular person would understand how the financial system works, they would be out with forks in the street.
I see only regular people here as well...

I think we need GigiBronz to adjudicate.

Awww! Someone remembers I exist. Well, I had a ban then I've been in the away in south of Spain getting tanned and pissed. It's not easy to live without a purpose and my savings are getting low BUT:

I am not going to slave away on a 90k role for a dinky companies full of delightful cubicles and 'fun' techies that we all know just for the privilege to pay bills. And maybe save 12k a year. that doesn't buy even a SH VW Golf.

And to entertain my wagie friends here, please listen to a song:

[TheDude]

I am still getting calls for Bank of America (in Bromley yohoo) and had received an interview request after about 200 applications on job serve(no feedback).
The market is completely dead.

I had an agent go honest (probably a moment of weakness) and he said that I shouldn't even bother applying to BoA and Morgan Stanley. The hiring managers don't even request to look at the cv's after starting the search.

Bank of America are always looking for staff in Bromley.

Managers know few people want to work there but you may get lucky and work for a team that doesn't require an office presence.

[GigiBronz]

Bank of America are always looking for staff in Bromley.

Managers know few people want to work there but you may get lucky and work for a team that doesn't require an office presence.

I think there was a joke on this thread a few posts back that: We know the market is bad when BoA no longer advertises roles.

Well, I explained that exact part to the agent: I would not mind having a conversation but only off the top of my head, to be able to get there it is 1h commute and a good part of it is with a bus through Lewisham. (live in Isle of Dogs so no way around it.) I think that the chances of getting robbed or stabbed on that route are very high.

"Nobody wants to work anymore" - sure let me travel 2h+ every day mostly in a stinky buss that is full of thugs so I can join a Zoom meeting. Rate was ok but not great, not enough anyway to justify getting accommodation close to client.

[TheDude]

I think there was a joke on this thread a few posts back that: We know the market is bad when BoA no longer advertises roles.

Well, I explained that exact part to the agent: I would not mind having a conversation but only off the top of my head, to be able to get there it is 1h commute and a good part of it is with a bus through Lewisham. (live in Isle of Dogs so no way around it.) I think that the chances of getting robbed or stabbed on that route are very high.

"Nobody wants to work anymore" - sure let me travel 2h+ every day mostly in a stinky buss that is full of thugs so I can join a Zoom meeting. Rate was ok but not great, not enough anyway to justify getting accommodation close to client.

I have just rejected a fully remote role with BAML because they/the agency were unable to get a bit closer to my current rate.

I hope I won't live to regret this.

[edison]

At a macro economic level, there are some mixed messages it seems. Last month's quarterly Deloitte CFO survey of large firms showed sentiment rebounded as their concerns about energy prices and Brexit problems eased. Not since the Covid vaccine rollout has there been such a swing in confidence.

However, CFOs are still feeling risk averse with many saying their priorities were cutting costs and building up cash reserves. One exception is investment in AI - an overwhelming CFOs expect to see significant growth in spending on AI over the next five years.

I think the rest of this year will continue to be tough especially for consumer orientated sectors, but assuming no other major events like bank collapses, worsening of Ukraine war or energy prices rising sharply again, we might start to see light at the end of the tunnel come early 2024.

Batten down the hatches in the meantime.

[PCTNN]

Market for UX Design roles is dead and the few openings I see are for roles requiring you to be 2 days a week in the office. I'm afraid remote work really is dead even for us designers.

[dsc]

Market for UX Design roles is dead and the few openings I see are for roles requiring you to be 2 days a week in the office. I'm afraid remote work really is dead even for us designers.

It's the idea behind the two days in the office? really needed or just made up tulipe to "have an eye" on people?