Reply to: State of the Market

[sreed]

When is the first Government Budget announcement going to happen?

I guess thats going to be the new excuse/reason as to why the job market is still in the doldrums.

Then after that the reason is going to be US elections..

My guess is Jan or April 2025 before we get a clear runway for take off.

The contractor market in 2025: the sonic boom at the 55 second market is Trump's re-election in January, then the market goes vertical:

People can always find topical reasons - stock market, currency fluctuations, elections, governments, immigration, interest rates, etc. - for ebbs and flows in the job market that suit their world view. I'm guilty of it myself, biased towards seeing everything adverse through the lens of mass non-EU immigration.

There is no one market for contractors and neither does any of the above have any clear link to or impact on the 'contractor market' (however one might choose to define that). Imho, I wouldn't characterise the job market as being 'in the doldrums' at present.

The notion that most companies are looking at the UK election, French election, Trump, the S&P, the FTSE, Andrew Bailey's tea leaves, who wins the Euros, etc. to decide what to do is just not the case. There will be some industries that will be impacted more than others depending on the nature of govt expenditure but in most mature western democracies, irrespective of all the noise, the movements in policies that impact the economy are marginal and usually creates winners as well as losers.

[eek]

When is the first Government Budget announcement going to happen?

I guess thats going to be the new excuse/reason as to why the job market is still in the doldrums.

Then after that the reason is going to be US elections..

My guess is Jan or April 2025 before we get a clear runway for take off.

Earliest a budget can be done (with checks) is September 11th.

Reality is it's going to be in October...

[Fraidycat]

When is the first Government Budget announcement going to happen?

I guess thats going to be the new excuse/reason as to why the job market is still in the doldrums.

Then after that the reason is going to be US elections..

My guess is Jan or April 2025 before we get a clear runway for take off.

The contractor market in 2025: the sonic boom at the 55 second market is Trump's re-election in January, then the market goes vertical:

[willendure]

Don't worry, Labour will be along to clear out everybody's CASH.

I'd laugh, but I feel more like crying.

[GJABS]

This site is fooked. You started a reply to NLUK and then binned it, so that reply will continue to appear when starting new posts, perhaps until you clear your cache, unsure.

That happens when you have clicked the "Multiquote" button under the post that you had replied to (it is persistent). Go back and click it again to remove it.

[oliverson]

This site is fooked. You started a reply to NLUK and then binned it, so that reply will continue to appear when starting new posts, perhaps until you clear your cache, unsure.

Don't worry, Labour will be along to clear out everybody's CASH.

[jamesbrown]

I've no idea how your post was quoted in my reply, now edited to focus my ire on the correct post

EDIT: It keeps including your post, but not showing it until after I post. Removed again!

This site is fooked. You started a reply to NLUK and then binned it, so that reply will continue to appear when starting new posts, perhaps until you clear your cache, unsure.

[ensignia]

Not sure why you've included my statement there. I'm more or less agreeing with what you said from the outset. Why would that be a joke or am I missing something?

I've no idea how your post was quoted in my reply, now edited to focus my ire on the correct post

EDIT: It keeps including your post, but not showing it until after I post. Removed again!

[northernladuk]

I can't tell who's joking and who's being serious any more. Hopefully this is the former.

Not sure why you've included my statement there. I'm more or less agreeing with what you said from the outset. Why would that be a joke or am I missing something?

[ensignia]

Exactly. Inevitable we'll have a "oh tulip, look what we've inherited" from Labour followed by "our pledge not to increase taxes was made without knowing the dire state of the finances", etc. Emergency budget, etc. Every tax in the book goes up, every allowance goes down or remains frozen. People's finances stretched even more, business confidence plummets lower. Hate to be the doom monger here, and thank god I just signed a 12 month extension with my US client, but I can't see a positive outcome to this until maybe 5 years down the line when Labour have ****ed up and hopefully Reform UK take over.

I can't tell who's joking and who's being serious any more. Hopefully this is the former.

[willendure]

I agree with the sentiment that the UK election will make no real difference.

When the economy does well, politicians take the credit. When it does badly, we blame them. In reality they just fiddle around the edges and rarely do anything that has much effect on it. So much is decided by external factors, how the US is doing, how China is doing, what is the price of Oil and so on.

Interest rates and taxes need to go up to prevent our currency from turning into a complete basket case. At the same time those rises will crush the economy. The simple truth is that we are starting to find ourselves between a rock and a hard place.

Careful long term planning and investment might turn things around. Can you see that happening amongst our political classes, amongst all the shouting about small boats and trans rights, Putin and Israel etc?

[rocktronAMP]

Exactly. The population is getting older, an increasing % of govt expenditure is going towards taking care of them through the decrepit NHS, ramshackle eldercare system and unsustainable triple/quadruple locked state pensions. At the same time the working population (especially middle and higher income earners) are being subjected to unprecedented levels of taxation to square this circle.

Unless and until the general voting population makes grown-up choices, the overall tax burden and size of the state is only going one way, the same direction they’ve been moving in under the “low tax” and “small state” Tories over the past 14 years - UP!

And they will steadfastly not apply the grease in order to restart the economy, to encourage investment, retrieve the "talent" from the benches that industry needs.
They (whoever) will not remove or abandon IR35 and definitely will not reverse the Off Payroll Worker rules.
Welcome to Drudge Britain, no longer Great, and turning into a sad fortress.
Sigh.

Hey ho. In Germany, they have a worse national train service than our Uk national ones: Die Deutsche Bahn.

[Yuri F]

There's more than enough money, the problem is with spend efficiency, significant chunk of it is absorbed by corruption or wasted, highly exploiting long-term or perpetual contracts inherited from political lobbying with unbearable exit fees, etc. More money you throw into furnace only makes those shadow beneficiaries richer, it's rather hostage situation. Productivity in public sector is laughable despite many naive maximalists putting all their best effort to provide service to society. There's hardly any tangible punishment for corruption (or often labeled as negligence) apart of declarative slapping on the wrists if caught, lack of real accountability and competence in populist-driven politics is the source of all the issues.
Moreover in general those who directly earned money by adding actual value know how to spend money best (private sector), not those who received it through redistribution (taxation), spending someone' else money have always been an easy job, often leading to malinvestment, inefficiencies and waste.

[sreed]

The certainty is that whoever is going to be in power, taxes ARE going up.

Exactly. The population is getting older, an increasing % of govt expenditure is going towards taking care of them through the decrepit NHS, ramshackle eldercare system and unsustainable triple/quadruple locked state pensions. At the same time the working population (especially middle and higher income earners) are being subjected to unprecedented levels of taxation to square this circle.

Unless and until the general voting population makes grown-up choices, the overall tax burden and size of the state is only going one way, the same direction they’ve been moving in under the “low tax” and “small state” Tories over the past 14 years - UP!

[edison]

It would be nice to have a separate thread for the wannabe Warren Buffets and save this one for tales of the state of the market in contracts.

We might as well have multiple threads in that case, there is no single market for IT skills. There is a broad range of skillsets, sectors, types of organisation and geography that make the usefulness of comparisons fairly limited.

Most of the posts on here are fairly narrow in scope and the individual's particular history and circumstances.