The official "World War ]i[" thread

[suityou01]

Yes, I am aware. It's a statement. They've also repeatedly stressed the importance of dialogue, democratic process and international law. And mentioned that they aren't planning a response (although I expect that is BS and behind the scenes they are planning like crazy)

FWIW my house is on one of the main helicopter flight paths over south London and the Chinook activity is much greater than normal, we normally get the odd one among the civilian flights but I've had 3 or 4 go over today.

I believe I said that earlier, that this is a foregone conclusion and any diplomatic efforts are merely playing for time.

Any sanctions are not going to have any effect on Russia, because :

a) They own the gas tap.
b) Any leaders imposing sanctions will most likely be gone in 2 years, replaced by new handwringing fresh faced leaders keen to mend fences.

Ohhh he's played a blinder here.

[doodab]

So you agree with me then that a proper strategic response is necessary in parallel with diplomacy and we are losing time?

Or are you disagreeing with me and saying let's give diplomacy a chance as any other posturing would automatically escalate things?

I agree with you that a proper strategic response is necessary, I disagree with you as to what constitutes a proper strategic response.

Any military maneuvers at this stage are premature. They aren't going to be on a sufficient scale to act as a deterrent so will be seen as posturing. If there is a full scale invasion coming, they will distract from preparing for it. A sensible strategic response needs to buy time.

[suityou01]

I agree with you that a proper strategic response is necessary, I disagree with you as to what constitutes a proper strategic response.

Any military maneuvers at this stage are premature. They aren't going to be on a sufficient scale to act as a deterrent so will be seen as posturing. If there is a full scale invasion coming, they will distract from preparing for it. A sensible strategic response needs to buy time.

Precisley the kind of profligacy that gave Herr Hitler more than a foothold. History repeating itself as AtW said.

Tinderbox situation waiting to go up. Lefty liberal nonsense Doodab.

[darmstadt]

Precisely. Although as far as this thread goes, you and Doodab are worrying about an icecube, while I have my eye firmly fixed on the iceberg.

Well the Territorials are looking for people (as the regular army seems to consist of one bloke and a bayonet now), so off you go...

[suityou01]

Well the Territorials are looking for people (as the regular army seems to consist of one bloke and a bayonet now), so off you go...

Oh don't you ******* start

[doodab]

Ohhh he's played a blinder here.

Not really. You've climbed down considerably from "it's going nuclear", and no one ever suggested that NATO doesn't have a plan.

The thing is that to provide a significant advantage in a large scale war that plan needs to include sinking the Black Sea Fleet at anchor at the same time as air strikes put paid to air bases in Crimea and similar targets in mainland Russia. Ostensibly preparing for that sort of strike would be rather provocative given that nothing the Russians have done threatens any NATO member state.

If it did actually look like they were preparing to go beyond a simple land grab I'd expect suitable posturing. As it is I don't think any western willy waving would be taken seriously as no one really believes we're going to start shooting at the Russians even if they make a break for Kiev.

[suityou01]

Not really. You've climbed down considerably from "it's going nuclear", and no one ever suggested that NATO doesn't have a plan.

The thing is that to provide a significant advantage in a large scale war that plan needs to include sinking the Black Sea Fleet at anchor at the same time as air strikes put paid to air bases in Crimea and similar targets in mainland Russia. Ostensibly preparing for that sort of strike would be rather provocative given that nothing the Russians have done threatens any NATO member state.

If it did actually look like they were preparing to go beyond a simple land grab I'd expect suitable posturing. As it is I don't think any western willy waving would be taken seriously as no one really believes we're going to start shooting at the Russians even if they make a break for Kiev.

[1] No, I haven't. Again putting words in my mouth.
[2] Yet. Again give it time. Given the embarrassingly weak and slow response so far Putin must be considering filling his boots.
[3] I think it's a different feeling on the ground in the Ukraine, and you are idly taking in the western media bulltulip at face value.

[Ticktock]

Well, good news is the drop in Russian shares and the central bank having to sell off currency in order to prop up the currency and bump up interest rates. If that keeps up then expect for Putin to become less popular in Russia - unless he manages to spin it into a "the rest of the world are against us, unite!" situation and people buy it.

Unfortunately Putin is an utterly indoctrinated Soviet, longing for a return to the days of the USSR, except this time hoping the balance of power will be more in his favour than the US.

[doodab]

Precisley the kind of profligacy that gave Herr Hitler more than a foothold. History repeating itself as AtW said.

Tinderbox situation waiting to go up. Lefty liberal nonsense Doodab.

Precisely the kind of strategic thinking that gave us a fighting chance.

Putting troops on the Polish border now won't dissuade Putin from making a land grab in the Ukraine and sailing a few ships up the med won't put him off either, the only military response that is going to get him out of the Ukraine is a full scale deployment to a country that isn't even part of NATO, which would make us just as bad as him. You also need to factor in that this is an area with preexisting, perfectly legal, Russian military bases in. You can't simply roll in there and destroy them on the pretext that he "might be planning to invade Poland" without starting world war three.

You are actually crazier than he is.

[doodab]

[1] No, I haven't. Again putting words in my mouth.

OK, so you still think there is going to be a nuclear war in the not to distant future?

[2] Yet. Again give it time. Given the embarrassingly weak and slow response so far Putin must be considering filling his boots.

He knows damn well that the response won't be "weak and slow" if he tries to keep going past Ukraine. Do you really think the small chance he might try anyway provides a pretext for fighting a full scale war in the Ukraine? That's flimsier than the sexed up dossier.

And as you say, give it time. If he does have eyes on parts of the EU the best thing we can do is prepare properly, not try and scare him off with some half hearted shuffling of our cards.

[3] I think it's a different feeling on the ground in the Ukraine, and you are idly taking in the western media bulltulip at face value.

I don't think anyone in the Ukraine is expecting hundreds of thousands of NATO troops to turn up and fight their war for them.