The official "World War ]i[" thread

[suityou01]

Obligatory Wail link Treaty would mean 'British war with Russia' if Putin's troops intervene in Ukraine | Mail Online

Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.

In response Mr Brenton said in a BBC radio interview: 'If indeed this is a Russian invasion of Crimea and if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum is legally binding then it's very difficult to avoid the conclusion that we're going to go to war with Russia'.

Meanwhile in Moscow http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...litary-ukraine

Current US foreign policy in a nutshell: Barack Obama tells Vladimir Putin "there will be costs" if Russia invades Ukraine. What does Putin do? He invades Ukraine. Only this time it's official

So the only question on the table now is, is this Budapest Memorandum legally binding, surely?

[doodab]

Maybe it is hyperbole. Ukraine gave up nuclear arms on the promise that the US and UK would step in should their borders have been breached. Their borders have now been breached. The Ukraine have asked us and the US to step in. Obama has said that any invasion would be costly. The Russians have parked a ship in Cuba.

Yes so we'll have some meetings and make some noises. There doesn't appear to have been an invasion, there is a Russian presence on Ukranian soil that was already there and the government in Crimea has asked the Russians for help, so it's quite possible that they are simply trying to avoid the sort of mass unrest that has occurred elsewhere in the country.

It is possible the Russians are looking for a pretext to roll over the border and annex Crimea but that would involve crossing about 200 miles of sovereign territory, during which time they'd likely meet armed resistance, so it would be a bloody ambitious and expensive move that could well end in a full scale war.

The most likely scenario IMO is that they are concerned with protecting their naval base and potentially protecting Russians in Crimea in the event of unrest.

Am I joining the dots up incorrectly in thinking we and the US could quite easily get sucked in and fast?

Yes, I think so. There is no desire on our side to be sucked in to a war and we'll do all we can to avoid it.

[suityou01]

I hope you are right, but remain concerned.

[AtW]

It is possible the Russians are looking for a pretext to roll over the border and annex Crimea

They were looking for the last 20 years.

And it finally happened -



Are they going to stop at Crimea? Depends on Western reaction, sadly there is no Churchill about, only Obama and "call me Dave". Same as in the 30s of last century.

[suityou01]

The request for military intervention was for the whole of UKraine, not just Crimea. That was rather an eye opener.

[doodab]

The request for military intervention was for the whole of UKraine, not just Crimea. That was rather an eye opener.

You have to cross a lot of ukraine to get to crimea.

[doodab]

They were looking for the last 20 years.

And it finally happened -



Are they going to stop at Crimea? Depends on Western reaction, sadly there is no Churchill about, only Obama and "call me Dave". Same as in the 30s of last century.

Those have to be tanks that were already there. No way they could have got to sebastapol already.

[AtW]

You have to cross a lot of ukraine to get to crimea.

No, you don't - entry points are via air and naval base which Russia insisted to keep there, in fact it used it even before official declarion of war which effectively happened today - in violation of signed agreements - very badly implemented, even Nazies called in ambassador few mins before war started.

Map -



The only good thing is that this will be the end of Putin, sadly it will most likely come at a price of a lot of lives, but West allowed him to become what he is now, same as with Nazies in the 30s - history repeats itself.

[AtW]

Those have to be tanks that were already there. No way they could have got to sebastapol already.

Self propelled artillery on a naval base? Doubt it, but in any case all military movements within that area are subject to written approval in Kiev, so Russia just blatantly violated more than one international agreement one of which was effectively guaranteed by UK and USA.

[doodab]

Self propelled artillery on a naval base? Doubt it, but in any case all military movements within that area are subject to written approval in Kiev, so Russia just blatantly violated more than one international agreement one of which was effectively guaranteed by UK and USA.

Maybe. They are certainly inflaming tensions, and either way the place seems to be tearing itself in two. One wonders at what point Kiev will react given the level of pro russian support in the local population, the new government could well end up in the same position as the last one.