The End Game

[DealorNoDeal]

Initially, option 1. Ultimately, though, it could be 4. He ain't stopping at Ukraine.

That's why, just like with Hitler, appeasement won't work. He'd just interpret that as a sign of weakness, and be emboldened to keep going further.

[jamesbrown]

That's why, just like with Hitler, appeasement won't work. He'd just interpret that as a sign of weakness, and be emboldened to keep going further.

I agree. I'm fairly pessimistic about where this is going. There is already increasing talk of a semi/full No Fly Zone over UA, which is a declaration of war on Russia, effectively, because it would need to be enforced. It's not inconceivable that Putin will use the supply of defensive weaponry as sufficient excuse. It sounds ridiculous, but the post-apocalypse situation in Russia (massive landmass, hard to totally obliterate) vs. elsewhere will be part of his calculation, even if not his preferred outcome. He also likes to use all tools (otherwise, why have them?) and nuclear is just another tool. He probably believes that the hypersonic weaponry offers him an edge too (it doesn't, not really).

[_V_]

I can only see this ending in WWIII and the end of all life on Earth.

Same are WWII, how could WWII have been avoided once Hitler had invaded Poland?

[Fraidycat]

As leader of Russia all this time, it would be incredible if he didn't. He hardly needs to skim it from anywhere though. Secret accounts, gold bars under the bed...

There is massive difference between invading Ukraine and invading a Nato Member state.

But given how Biden is so senile/weak/woke, Putin wont be as scared of Nato as he used to be.

[OwlHoot]

FWIW, I voted two(ish)

I don't think Putin ever had any intention of permanently occupying the whole of Ukraine, because for a start he doesn't have the manpower. Remember Adolph had two or three milion men in the Wehrmacht, and Stalin much the same I think, if not even more, and one needs those kinds of numbers to effectively occupy much hostile territory.

Putin wants only maybe a larger portion of East and especially south east Ukraine, so (among other reasons) he ends up with almost all Ukraine's wheat growing areas and he can make China more dependent on "Russian" wheat exports and stop them acting up over *their* border dispute with Russia!

All this current carry on in the rest of Ukraine is just to pin down Ukrainian forces while he consolidates his hold on Eastern Ukraine, and maybe to grab and eliminate the current Ukrainian leadership if he can, although how well his "cunning plan" is panning out we'll have to see.

[jamesbrown]

I can only see this ending in WWIII and the end of all life on Earth.

I expect it would escalate pretty quickly too. I can't see much chance of a traditional ground/naval/air war with NATO as a warm up. Afterall, Russia has shown itself to be pretty incompetent in that regard and, while they have a large army, they don't have a large professional army and there is vast corruption in Russian procurement so they've ended up with a lot of crappy/outdated kit for a traditional campaign, plus inexperience (as evidenced in UA where the predictions about instant success were massively overblown). And even if there were a traditional war first (plus asymmetric stuff, like cyber), they would ultimately lose and it would end up in the same place. Yikes.

[_V_]

As soon as this escalates, Putin will launch the hypersonic nuclear weapons, no country in the world has any defence against that, first strike wins everything. MAD ended with the Russians and Chinese beating the USA and Europe to this tech.

We are already dead, we just don't know it yet.

[jamesbrown]

As soon as this escalates, Putin will launch the hypersonic nuclear weapons, no country in the world has any defence against that, first strike wins everything. MAD ended with the Russians and Chinese beating the USA and Europe to this tech.

We are already dead, we just don't know it yet.

There's a lot of hype/BS about hypersonic, no pun intended. In reality, they travel slower than ICBMs and they are just as easy to track, if not easier (not that either can be targeted by anti-missile defences successfully, and there is a lot of BS about those too), but they can be maneuvered in flight, unlike ICBMs. Anyway, they offer no huge advantage in reality and Putin will know that. In other words, once launched, it is M.A.D., hypersonic or otherwise.

[SueEllen]

But given how Biden is so senile/weak/woke, Putin wont be as scared of Nato as he used to be.

He may be but the people behind him aren't necessarily. Remember the expression of Bush Junior?

[ladymuck]

I don't get why a no-fly zone means a declaration of war.