I would worry less about whether scientists have an agenda and more about whether they are producing something useful (and I say that as a scientist myself). It seems to me that they are not very good at forecasting covid epidemiology (e.g., look at the history of the Imperial model, among many others). Creating vaccines, otoh.
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DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostIt seems to me that they are not very good at forecasting covid epidemiology (e.g., look at the history of the Imperial model, among many others). Creating vaccines, otoh.
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Originally posted by mattster View Post
Yes, it's more complicated than just antibodies but the fact is that people are catching it twice, and catching it after being double jabbed - but in general doing better than they would be if they didn't have some immunity.
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Originally posted by AtW View PostChange in behavior changes models - 146k dead so far from Covid and Imperial said 500k (without any changes in behavior at the time when no vaccines were available), if anything Imperial was on a low end.
https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/st...08978070466572
The reality is that forecasting covid is very hard indeed, as with many other things that involve a complex aggregation of physical/human factors and non-linear feedbacks like, say, the stock markets. We should mostly ignore these covid forecasts because they have very little skill and tend to be biased high, which is even worse.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostThat is a very weak argument.
We know that 146k actuall died despite lockdowns, and at best 20% of population were "naturally" infected, so it follows that 500-600k dead count was actually almost spot on, again if virus was allowed to rip through, which thankfully did not happen.
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Originally posted by AtW View Post
It's a very good argument specifically for that Imperial study - it said that there will be 500-600k dead in the UK _IF_ virus is allowed to rip through to get that magical "herd immunity".
We know that 146k actuall died despite lockdowns, and at best 20% of population were "naturally" infected, so it follows that 500-600k dead count was actually almost spot on, again if virus was allowed to rip through, which thankfully did not happen.
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostYours is an untestable proposition because it didn't happen.
Same here - imperial model was clearly correct in terms of forecast deaths (if virus was allowed to go unchecked).
Last edited by AtW; 12 December 2021, 19:15.Comment
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Originally posted by AtW View Post
Global thermonuclear war also did not happen, yet models that suggest hundreds of millions will die pretty quickly are testably correct, just not worth testing it.
Same here - imperial model was clearly correct in terms of forecast deaths (if virus was allowed to go unchecked).
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Have we got an R for Omicron yet? When they say Omicron is far more transmissible than Delta, which was already far more transmissible than Covid Classic, which was itself already very transmissible, it makes me think surely there must be an upper limit. I got the impression that even with Delta, you were almost certain to catch it if you were in close contact, similar to chicken pox.
edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_...tious_diseases
I think they must have downgraded Delta's R value, because I'm sure it was right near the top of the list before. Looks like anything up to 3X worse is possible! DOOM!Last edited by d000hg; 13 December 2021, 10:24.Originally posted by MaryPoppinsI'd still not breastfeed a naziOriginally posted by vetranUrine is quite nourishingComment
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Don't forget to sanitise your Christmas cards before you open them this year.bloggoth
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