Is this really our plan?

[DimPrawn]

A stats man on I think the BBC last night said the total excess deaths in the last couple of months were about equal with the last bad flu season we had a few winters ago.

That is not true. We have never seen excess deaths like this in such a short period of time. And this is with lockdown. In 6 months time with people mixing again, excess deaths will be like the last 50 years of flu seasons combined.

[rootsnall]

That is not true. We have never seen excess deaths like this in such a short period of time. And this is with lockdown. In 6 months time with people mixing again, excess deaths will be like the last 50 years of flu seasons combined.

Ineffective flu jab blamed as extra winter deaths hit 40-year high

I think he was referring to this 50,000 figure here.

[dx4100]

Any idea what that is for the flu?

Seasonal flu ranges from something like 0.9 to 2 depending on the setting... our aim with Covid is to keep it at below 1 across all settings averaged out... its also not a daily R rate we are looking at but a 3 day rolling average. The Germans where talking publicly about this the other day saying they can actually tolerate a daily R of around 1.3 if its lower in the rolling average.

[DoctorStrangelove]

Over 50’s should be herded into stadiums to get infected - 30% or so will snuff if, will be a much quicker but same plan Boris has


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Hello Dom, you ugly mother****er

Good to see you're consistently consistent with your psychopathic bent.

[WTFH]

Seasonal flu ranges from something like 0.9 to 2 depending on the setting... our aim with Covid is to keep it at below 1 across all settings averaged out... its also not a daily R rate we are looking at but a 3 day rolling average. The Germans where talking publicly about this the other day saying they can actually tolerate a daily R of around 1.3 if its lower in the rolling average.

OK. I'd prefer a 7 day rolling average to 3, but it's a start.

The other thing is that seasonal flu is just that - it's seasonal. UK flu season is considered December - March (according to the NHS).
We're 4 months in to CV-19, so don't know how long the season is for it, but the only way we've managed to get the infection rate down is through the last 8 weeks of lockdown/self isolation.

[dx4100]

OK. I'd prefer a 7 day rolling average to 3, but it's a start.

The other thing is that seasonal flu is just that - it's seasonal. UK flu season is considered December - March (according to the NHS).
We're 4 months in to CV-19, so don't know how long the season is for it, but the only way we've managed to get the infection rate down is through the last 8 weeks of lockdown/self isolation.

We might move away from the German approach - pretty sure we will be doing the same at the moment but I don't know for sure - its a normal measure though. Our government have not confirmed what they are using but obviously won't be daily. Would be a good question for someone to actually ask Whitty. 7 day sounds sensible.

Well Covid is unlikely to be "seasonal" from what I am reading. Its also unlikely to be around "forever" in its current form anyway. A lot of these style of viruses mutate and either get more deadly so they burn out quicker or become less infectious. Its very unlikely to stay the same. Talking years here though not months.

[shaunbhoy]

I saw BBC news provide an estimate yesterday

I believe we have sourced the root of your confusion and bewilderment.

HTH

[shaunbhoy]

One day we'll reach the sunny uplands of Swindon.

Now THERE'S a statement you don't often hear.

[DimPrawn]

Now THERE'S a statement you don't often hear.

Parts of Swindon among the most deprived in country | Swindon Advertiser

Why is there a man outside my house?

[FIERCE TANK BATTLE]

Yeah. good idea - since all under 25s live on their or only with other under 25s.

And who knows long term implications of this virus anyway? Easy to say - get infected, but what if t creates long term damage?

Many people do, the idea isn't to get them into work (although it's a plus), it's to get them infected and immune, while not introducing too many cases so the NHS is able to cope.

If it creates long term damage you're ****ed anyway, it's not going away until we have herd immunity.

That is literally the government's plan, to let people get infected up to 60%, but rather than slowly let the number creep up, you can give it a boost by making those most likely to be fine the ones that are infected, which will save the older and more likely to die / more expensive to treat people.