worth a read

[dsc]

The models are informed by the real time scenarios in Spain, France and Italy. The idea is to predict what is likely to happen in a long period. Not what will happen in 3 weeks time. Now, stop being so hysterical. Have a cup of tea and a biscuit. Then go and wash your hands.

I'm not being hysterical, i just can't understand why go against what everyone else is saying ie. close everything down asap. Italy is or was roughly 3 weeks ahead and they had a really relaxed approach at the start, look where they are now. Besides there's loads of models each with it's own limitations and errors, I understand the need to look further into the future, but I think it's more important to act really quick and take radical steps asap.

[WTFH]

The documentary Contagion is still on iPlayer. Worth a watch as it's about mathematical modelling of infectious respiratory diseases e.g. flu.

They estimated just under 900,000 deaths if nothing was done. They were using a model where each person comes into contact with 1.8 others.

Watch out, you'll get into all sorts of trouble with the befuddled for talking about a program on the BBC. It's obviously wrong, biased and done by "scientists" who are not as smart as Farage, Cummings, etc.

[AtW]

Watch out, you'll get into all sorts of trouble with the befuddled for talking about a program on the BBC. It's obviously wrong, biased and done by "scientists" who are not as smart as Farage, Cummings, etc.

This fancy BBC math is clearly elitist

[NotAllThere]

I'm not being hysterical, i just can't understand why go against what everyone else is saying ie. close everything down asap. Italy is or was roughly 3 weeks ahead and they had a really relaxed approach at the start, look where they are now. Besides there's loads of models each with it's own limitations and errors, I understand the need to look further into the future, but I think it's more important to act really quick and take radical steps asap.

I don't disagree with the need to shut down. But you are being a bit hysterical about it all.

[Andy2]

Have house prices gone down yet?

No but house owners are going down fast

[DimPrawn]

It kills mostly the old and the sick, you think the govt wants to close down something that solves the pension and health crisis in a matter of months?

[KinooOrKinog]

It kills mostly the old and the sick, you think the govt wants to close down something that solves the pension and health crisis in a matter of months?

Exactly what I said to my sister last night. It's the perfect way to cull the population. I would even go so far as to say the whole thing has been no accident.

[PurpleGorilla]

Have I read this paper correctly in that whatever we do now we are looking at a minimum of 250,000 deaths?


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[cojak]

Exactly what I said to my sister last night. It's the perfect way to cull the population. I would even go so far as to say the whole thing has been no accident.

If you did go that far I would say that you’re an idiot.

[cojak]

Have I read this paper correctly in that whatever we do now we are looking at a minimum of 250,000 deaths?


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

For feck’s sake, look at the figures and do the math.

UK population- approx. 70 million.

Johnson et. al talking about Herd immunity of 60% - 42 million infected.

Of those 15% will be serious requiring medical intervention - 6.2 million.

Number of UK ICU beds per 100,000 - 6.6 (Germany has 29 and a lower death rate, quelle surprise...).

As a historical point, the UK death rate from Spanish flu was 0.5%. Using the potential infection rate above, that comes to...

210,000 (or more depending on that infection rate).

Thanks to An Engineer for setting this out for me - maths is what you need in these times.