State of the Market

[Fraidycat]

Sadly I think that until the budget is out of the way at the end of November, there's not going to be much movement.

Just got to keep applying for everything suitable and even considering perm at this stage. Sadly from what you've said, perm positions are also well down too though.

The UK firm I am working at laid off 5% of perm staff last month. First layoffs they have done in over a decade.

Also historically they tended to give annual pay rises in line with inflation, this year the pay rises will be about 2% below inflation, which saves them the 2% employer NI increases (the employer NI rise was about 2% if you include the threshold change), showing that employees are really the ones who end up paying employers NI, except maybe those who on minimum wage and so their employers cant use that trick.

Historically the US Fed raised rates in March 2022. Almost immediately the big US tech firms began mass layoffs including in their UK offices. The contractor market went belly up a few months later around July 2022 and hasn't recovered since. A couple of posters on this thread have recently said they have been benched since the middle of 2022. Three full years now

The UK BOE began raising rates 4 months ahead of the US Fed (in December 2021) but that wasn't enough on its own to take the UK contracting market down.

I used Jan to September, 9 month periods for the layoffs data in my previous post above.

Since this current slowdown began around Jul 2022, I could of used Jul to Jun full year periods:

Jul 2022 to Jun 2023: 334K layoffs
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024: 151K layoffs
Jul 2024 to Jul 2025 : 118K layoffs

Full year 2021: 16K layoffs

https://layoffs.fyi/

[WTFH]

Jul 2022 to Jun 2023: 334K layoffs
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024: 151K layoffs
Jul 2024 to Jul 2025 : 118K layoffs

Full year 2021: 16K layoffs

I know you like to desperately find figures that fit your thinking, but maybe add a bit of context.
In 2020 & 2021 we had a global pandemic. Many businesses were treading water, or relying on IT to set up and support remote working. I realise some people like to cancel history and say that there was no pandemic and no one died, but it was real, it did happen.

Perhaps it would be good if you compared the data since this thread started.

[krytonsheep]

Even though I've been contracting for 17 years, I just can't see it improving.

To me it feels like it's regressing back to 20+ years ago, which I don't think is a bad thing. Contracting from my perspective was experienced individuals filling skill gaps on projects to get x,y,z done. Then everyone and his dog realised they could take home more money doing the same job, so you ended up with situations where half the people in a company were contractors.

Right now there's still too many contractors and not enough demand, so contracts are offered on a friends recommended basis or experience/skill basis. Seeing a lot of permie-tractors on Linkedin who put in zero effort to actually doing work whilst contracting, struggling to find work. When I say zero effort, I mean falling asleep in meetings, arriving at lunch time etc.

[oliverson]

To me it feels like it's regressing back to 20+ years ago, which I don't think is a bad thing. Contracting from my perspective was experienced individuals filling skill gaps on projects to get x,y,z done. Then everyone and his dog realised they could take home more money doing the same job, so you ended up with situations where half the people in a company were contractors.

Right now there's still too many contractors and not enough demand, so contracts are offered on a friends recommended basis or experience/skill basis. Seeing a lot of permie-tractors on Linkedin who put in zero effort to actually doing work whilst contracting, struggling to find work. When I say zero effort, I mean falling asleep in meetings, arriving at lunch time etc.

Sadly the rates on offer these days are from 20+ years ago. Less in some circumstances.

[krytonsheep]

Sadly the rates on offer these days are from 20+ years ago. Less in some circumstances.

Yep, I was earning more back then than today, which I believe comes down to the over saturation of contractors in the market.

[oliverson]

Yep, I was earning more back then than today, which I believe comes down to the over saturation of contractors in the market.

The £ 450 I was on in 2005 would now equate to £ 800.52 according to the Bank of England inflation calculator! This at a time when there was no such real dividend tax, no IR35 reforms, the Flat Rate VAT scheme was good for a few grand a year, personal tax allowances were more generous, new 4 bed detached houses in my part of the world (Yorkshire) could be had for £ 150k. I won't talk about the state of the economy/country/immigration, etc.

[willendure]

Since this current slowdown began around Jul 2022, I could of used Jul to Jun full year periods:

Jul 2022 to Jun 2023: 334K layoffs
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024: 151K layoffs
Jul 2024 to Jul 2025 : 118K layoffs

Full year 2021: 16K layoffs

https://layoffs.fyi/

Have you got a comparison not to 2021, but maybe to 2016-2019? That could be interesting.

I feel like I am seeing more and more AI related contracts advetised, but I haven't quantified it (yet).

[krytonsheep]

The £ 450 I was on in 2005 would now equate to £ 800.52 according to the Bank of England inflation calculator!.

One of the reasons contractors got paid more was because it was often ad hoc work, so you may only be working 6 months a year. That doesn't seem to apply any more sadly.

[sadkingbilly]

One of the reasons contractors got paid more was because it was often ad hoc work, so you may only be working 6 months a year. That doesn't seem to apply any more sadly.

Wtf would employers care whether contractors had any work? - they get them in when needed, and DGAFF when not.
you lot have strange opinions* about contracting.


*and a definite whiff of erroneous 'entitlement'

[simes]

Sadly I think that until the budget is out of the way at the end of November, there's not going to be much movement.

I think these are just excuses, or at least the next 'stages' of a calendar year when 'something' is out of the way.

Christmas, Easter, End of tax year, summer, budget, election... None of these events have offered immediate improvement in the world after their passing.