Reply to: Unemployment

[Protagoras]

And now "Unemployment set to hit 5.3% this year amid ‘worrying’ rise in young jobless"

(https://www.theguardian.com/society/...le-out-of-work)

And as for the inflation forecasts, who knows what will happen now that US-Israel has started a war that impacts energy prices ... At least that might help keep interest rates at a sensible level.

Meanwhile, the 'Spring Statement' reveals that “This government has restored economic stability”. That'll be why prices in the supermarket go up every week, my Council Tax is rising at nearly 3 times the rate of inflation and my nominal income remains unchanged.

[DoctorStrangelove]

......and corned beef, don't forget corned beef!

In one of the current books:

I went along to a wholesaler in the City of London and bought a dozen 50lb cases of corned beef and half a dozen bags of green coffee beans

The villagers thought he was crazy until a year or so later. .

[Protagoras]

Corned beef and baked beans? Don't forget the toilet paper, when armagedon hits TP will be nowhere to be found.

How long will the battle of armagedon take?

Generally, it's presumed to be over in an instant, so that there may be little time to deploy the TP before the power supply to the fan fails.

[jamesbrown]

The good old FT. Chuckle.

[willendure]

Corned beef and baked beans? Don't forget the toilet paper, when armagedon hits TP will be nowhere to be found.

[sadkingbilly]

NOW?? - corned beef!!

[Paddy]

Buy your baked beans now!

Just bough a container load, now what do I do?

[sadkingbilly]

......and corned beef, don't forget corned beef!

[DoctorStrangelove]

Buy your baked beans now!

[Protagoras]

"A feedback loop with no brake’: how an AI doomsday report shook US markets"

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...attled-markets

[sadkingbilly]

if you say so.........

[financial analyst]

Successive Government(s) policy is the direct cause of the unemployment problem.

AI is a contributory factor and timing has been unfortunate, but its a convenient distraction for government to lean on.

Successive governments inflated the value of the benefits system such that there was little incentive for many unemployed people to seek work.

Rather than reduce benefits (and lose easy votes), they raised the minimum wage by more than inflation for a few years to restore that incentive.

Obviously the minimum wage threshold drives up the cost of employing people with skills valued more highly.

Now if one wants to hire an entry-level worker, one faces a range of significant costs to consider:

• recruitment done right costs time and money sifting through CVs applications, interviewing, etc whether in-house or externally
• salary
• other costs of employment inc Employers NIC, Employers Pension etc
• providing a safe, compliant work environment can be GBP5-10k per person in London and major cities
• they need IT kit and infrastructure. Many on here will understand that the total cost can be GBP1-3k per user per year.
• they need managing. A manager by definition will cost more. Efficient organisations might have 10-15 reports per manager. Across public sector that will typically be 2 reports per manager, so each new hire might require 10-20% of the (total, loaded) cost of a manager to deliver their work well.
• employment won't work for everyone and the costs of unwinding in an HR-compliant manner can be significant, even for relatively junior roles. I know termination can be immediate up to 2 yrs, but in practice there will be meetings between manager and HR to confirm that mental health concerns have been followed, performance management has been correct, grievances and counter-grievances are managed without liability etc etc

Now assuming one isn't running a charity, one needs to make a profit on all that.

The total costs will be such a massive multiple of the cost of offshore and/or AI-enabled alternatives that the decision to undertake a new hire in UK is difficult.

TLDR; government has made cost of employing people here too expensive, handing a business case to offshore and AI alternatives.

[milanbenes]

It's just a way of reducing the number of applicants.

When I was a hiring manager, I'd throw the top half of the pile of the CVs in the bin on the grounds I don't want to hire unlucky people.

When I had a contract near Vauxhall, I'd regularly get the train to Liverpool St Station with a chap working "in the city", who'd gone there from doing his O levels.

lol

Milan

[alamest]

I think the interesting bit in the OP isn’t just the headline 5.2% figure, but the point about youth unemployment being around 14%. That’s a very different story depending on where you sit in the market. As contractors, we tend to feel demand shifts quickly, but entry-level and junior roles often get squeezed first when companies tighten budgets.

I’ve also noticed that while AI gets blamed for everything, a lot of what I’m seeing is still good old-fashioned cost control, offshoring, rate pressure, and projects being paused rather than outright replaced by automation. The public sector wage point is valid too; funding has to come from somewhere.

From what people are seeing on the ground, is this translating into fewer contract renewals, or just longer gaps between gigs?

[NotAllThere]

These opportunities still exist but are much rarer. Most companies seem to require a degree.

It's just a way of reducing the number of applicants.

When I was a hiring manager, I'd throw the top half of the pile of the CVs in the bin on the grounds I don't want to hire unlucky people.

When I had a contract near Vauxhall, I'd regularly get the train to Liverpool St Station with a chap working "in the city", who'd gone there from doing his O levels.