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Reply to: DOOM: The Economy

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Previously on "DOOM: The Economy"

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  • vetran
    replied
    And as suggested by your expert Vetran when the true figures came out the UK didn't have negative growth, its flat. Germany is in a bit of a pickle though.

    Shockingly the IMF & Remoaners were wrong - again.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post


    No, you simply 'work the facts' to support the view you already hold like nearly everyone. People with strongly held views rarely change them quickly.
    Forecast !=facts.

    Germany has had lower actual growth on the factual figures.


    So they aren't changing yet, others seem desperate to represent the UK as ailing.

    There is no doubt the UK is going through challenging times but the forecasts seem a little negative based on existing facts.

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by vetran View Post

    no when the facts change I change my mind


    No, you simply 'work the facts' to support the view you already hold like nearly everyone. People with strongly held views rarely change them quickly.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by WTFH View Post

    You have to have your own mind to be able to change it.

    But back to your standard M.O. - always point at someone else.
    Well your mind seems aligned to the IMF who as the FT says has a poor track record based on published statistics. So can you sensibly say that?

    I have mentioned that both the forecasts and actuality show Germany in a worse state on the latest figures. Certain people seems to think that all issues are down to Brexit so how does that explain Germany's state?

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by vetran View Post

    no when the facts change I change my mind, its all these remoaners …
    You have to have your own mind to be able to change it.

    But back to your standard M.O. - always point at someone else.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by dsc View Post
    It's the usual approach of believing any random tulipe as long as it's in line with your own beliefs and denying even the most solid and data driven proof cause it's "wrong".
    no when the facts change I change my mind, its all these remoaners having a circle jerk around IMF's dodgy guesses that amuses me.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by WhooshTFH View Post

    Wait till the guy who wrote this reads your reply - he cherishes forecasts as the truth, particularly when they suit…

    Its scary sarcasm is the lowest form of wit and WTFH is having trouble with it.



    Leave a comment:


  • dsc
    replied
    It's the usual approach of believing any random tulipe as long as it's in line with your own beliefs and denying even the most solid and data driven proof cause it's "wrong".

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by vetran View Post

    Prediction = Forecast=Guess

    one would expect it to be an educated guess but even the FT doubts their abilities
    Wait till the guy who wrote this reads your reply - he cherishes forecasts as the truth, particularly when they suit…


    Originally posted by vetran View Post
    Yep its bad the forecast has our growth only .6% higher than Germany's -0.3%

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  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post
    UK economy only one in G7 expected to shrink this year, even Russia is set to grow.


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    Russian economy only shrank 2.2 in 2022. Seems like the economic sanctions on Russia, hit Europe harder than Russia itself.


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    Prediction = Forecast=Guess

    one would expect it to be an educated guess but even the FT doubts their abilities

    https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-...f-23cb17fd1498


    The FT looked at the number of countries that the IMF expected to be in recession for every year since 1991 and compared it with the number of economies that turned out to have actually contracted. Over the last 27 years, the IMF has predicted every October that an average of five economies will contract the following year. In practice, an average of 26 have contracted. This suggests that the six countries that the IMF predict will be in recession for 2018 could rise to as many as 31.

    Leave a comment:


  • Paddy
    replied
    The only difference between the UK and the other G7s is Brexit.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    UK economy only one in G7 expected to shrink this year, even Russia is set to grow.


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    Russian economy only shrank 2.2 in 2022. Seems like the economic sanctions on Russia, hit Europe harder than Russia itself.


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    Leave a comment:


  • BlasterBates
    replied
    Originally posted by vetran View Post

    read around the forecasts?

    Just try reading your own posts. The 3.9% growth was the IMF forecast made in 2021 and was wrong. You contradicted yourself with the figures you posted for actual GDP showing the UK flatlining

    Q1 0.6
    Q2 0.1
    Q3 -0.3
    Q4 wasn't in your post but the preliminary figure is -0.3

    GDP growth in the UK for 2022 was 0.6 + .0.1 -0.3 -0.3 = 0.1


    Last edited by BlasterBates; 28 January 2023, 15:27.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    read around the forecasts?


    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by WTFH View Post

    Your “real” figures only work if you ignore the train crash that meant we recovered in late 21 and into 22 compared with how much we fell in the pandemic
    so is the issue that we are now only growing slightly less than the Eurozone having grown significantly more and faster after a global pandemic crash?

    Is that like "my pants are drying after I pissed myself, but as they are nearly dry they aren't drying as quickly as France?"

    Leave a comment:

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