Reply to: DOOM: The Economy

[vetran]

And as suggested by your expert Vetran when the true figures came out the UK didn't have negative growth, its flat. Germany is in a bit of a pickle though.

Shockingly the IMF & Remoaners were wrong - again.

[vetran]

No, you simply 'work the facts' to support the view you already hold like nearly everyone. People with strongly held views rarely change them quickly.

Forecast !=facts.

Germany has had lower actual growth on the factual figures.


So they aren't changing yet, others seem desperate to represent the UK as ailing.

There is no doubt the UK is going through challenging times but the forecasts seem a little negative based on existing facts.

[d000hg]

no when the facts change I change my mind

No, you simply 'work the facts' to support the view you already hold like nearly everyone. People with strongly held views rarely change them quickly.

[vetran]

You have to have your own mind to be able to change it.

But back to your standard M.O. - always point at someone else.

Well your mind seems aligned to the IMF who as the FT says has a poor track record based on published statistics. So can you sensibly say that?

I have mentioned that both the forecasts and actuality show Germany in a worse state on the latest figures. Certain people seems to think that all issues are down to Brexit so how does that explain Germany's state?

[WTFH]

no when the facts change I change my mind, its all these remoaners …

You have to have your own mind to be able to change it.

But back to your standard M.O. - always point at someone else.

[vetran]

It's the usual approach of believing any random tulipe as long as it's in line with your own beliefs and denying even the most solid and data driven proof cause it's "wrong".

no when the facts change I change my mind, its all these remoaners having a circle jerk around IMF's dodgy guesses that amuses me.

[vetran]

Wait till the guy who wrote this reads your reply - he cherishes forecasts as the truth, particularly when they suit…

Its scary sarcasm is the lowest form of wit and WTFH is having trouble with it.

[dsc]

It's the usual approach of believing any random tulipe as long as it's in line with your own beliefs and denying even the most solid and data driven proof cause it's "wrong".

[WTFH]

Prediction = Forecast=Guess

one would expect it to be an educated guess but even the FT doubts their abilities

Wait till the guy who wrote this reads your reply - he cherishes forecasts as the truth, particularly when they suit…

Yep its bad the forecast has our growth only .6% higher than Germany's -0.3%

[vetran]

UK economy only one in G7 expected to shrink this year, even Russia is set to grow.






Russian economy only shrank 2.2 in 2022. Seems like the economic sanctions on Russia, hit Europe harder than Russia itself.

Prediction = Forecast=Guess

one would expect it to be an educated guess but even the FT doubts their abilities

https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-...f-23cb17fd1498

The FT looked at the number of countries that the IMF expected to be in recession for every year since 1991 and compared it with the number of economies that turned out to have actually contracted. Over the last 27 years, the IMF has predicted every October that an average of five economies will contract the following year. In practice, an average of 26 have contracted. This suggests that the six countries that the IMF predict will be in recession for 2018 could rise to as many as 31.

[Paddy]

The only difference between the UK and the other G7s is Brexit.

[Fraidycat]

UK economy only one in G7 expected to shrink this year, even Russia is set to grow.






Russian economy only shrank 2.2 in 2022. Seems like the economic sanctions on Russia, hit Europe harder than Russia itself.

[BlasterBates]

read around the forecasts?

Just try reading your own posts. The 3.9% growth was the IMF forecast made in 2021 and was wrong. You contradicted yourself with the figures you posted for actual GDP showing the UK flatlining

Q1 0.6
Q2 0.1
Q3 -0.3
Q4 wasn't in your post but the preliminary figure is -0.3

GDP growth in the UK for 2022 was 0.6 + .0.1 -0.3 -0.3 = 0.1

[vetran]

You need to read around.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/uk-at-bottom-of-g-7-growth-league-for-next-two-years-oecd-says

read around the forecasts?

[vetran]

Your “real” figures only work if you ignore the train crash that meant we recovered in late 21 and into 22 compared with how much we fell in the pandemic

so is the issue that we are now only growing slightly less than the Eurozone having grown significantly more and faster after a global pandemic crash?

Is that like "my pants are drying after I pissed myself, but as they are nearly dry they aren't drying as quickly as France?"