Reply to: State of the Market

[SussexSeagull]

I can definitively say that I am unsure. I still suspect that the main problems are business not wanting to invest in new projects and outsourcing. Holding off for AI to make everything outdated in the near future feels a bit premature at the moment.

I work in testing and it has taken until now for a lot of organisations to embrace automated testing tools. Instinctively it feels a bit early to say the same people are piling into dev ops or fully embracing AI. Business tends to be small c conservative about such things.

Although I might be wrong.

[Fraidycat]

I do hope you are right. But I don't really see the rationale where thats coming from except "it goes in cycles".

When the recovery will happen is now uncertain, i was expecting April next year but the budget has thrown a spanner into the expected recovery.


Todays news:

UK business confidence at lowest level since pandemic after tax-raising budget, the Institute of Directors says hit to private sector will undermine growth and public finances.

The Institute of Directors’ economic confidence index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy, fell to -65 in November from -52 in October, the fourth monthly fall in a row.

That is the lowest reading since the record low of -69 in April 2020, and the second worst since the index began in July 2016.


https://www.theguardian.com/business...raising-budget

[CodeCobbler]

The flood gates will re open at some point.

The £500 a day contract will return in huge numbers like before because £500 a day is cheaper than ever, its worth just what £350 was worth in 2012.

Not a lot of money these days, and not worth jumping to contracting for if anyone has a good perm package. But for contractors looking to retire within in the next 10 years its still not bad.

I do hope you are right. But I don't really see the rationale where thats coming from except "it goes in cycles".

[CodeCobbler]

It's been 2yrs. I have never, ever seen it like this bad before for so long. I am begining to believe, that the market has permentantly changed now.

It's quite a possibility. There is nothing to suggest that IT will permentantly grow and demand will always be fluctuate.

In the 90s, my dad used to run video shops which were run out with even blockbuster coming and going. Then it was computer shops. So I am aware nothing lasts forever and perhaps contracting including software development has run it's course.

Perhaps it might be better to find an alternative income stream, I was hoping to retire in a couple of years anyway.

I also feel this way. I think the comparison between blockbuster and IT is an apt one. Who are we to claim we know that tech trends "go in cycles", nay, we don't have any idea. Its a market thats existed for so few years we have no way of knowing. I think its over. Maybe just maybe with the US elections there is some new found confidence in tech, but also so is cost cutting. Who can say really?

Thats good you only have to see out a couple more years. But I am at least another 10 years off retirement so I can't think about that just yet.

[Fraidycat]

It's been 2yrs. I have never, ever seen it like this bad before for so long. I am begining to believe, that the market has permentantly changed now.
It's quite a possibility. There is nothing to suggest that IT will permentantly grow and demand will always be fluctuate.

The flood gates will re open at some point.

The £500 a day contract will return in huge numbers like before because £500 a day is cheaper than ever, its worth just what £350 was worth in 2012.

Not a lot of money these days, and not worth jumping to contracting for if anyone has a good perm package. But for contractors looking to retire within in the next 10 years its still not bad.

[Sub]

To be fair it seems like downturn is somehow more impacting programmers this time, especially ones without exposure to adjoining areas, like devops or systems integration.

Recently been advising client on the new integrator hire and while it seemed that some coding experience will be helpful, that was not enough and even had to stress to not to hire programmer who writes code day in day out.

On the other hand friend of mine started transitioning into devops few years back, from 3rd/4th line support. Recently (aug-sep), he was made redundant and whilst still on notice found new job in a week, haven't spent a day without one. He is not a contractor - but well in his 60s.

So I guess while overall downturn in IT hiring is undeniable, for some it much worse than for others.

[SchumiStars]

It's been 2yrs. I have never, ever seen it like this bad before for so long. I am begining to believe, that the market has permentantly changed now.

It's quite a possibility. There is nothing to suggest that IT will permentantly grow and demand will always be fluctuate.

In the 90s, my dad used to run video shops which were run out with even blockbuster coming and going. Then it was computer shops. So I am aware nothing lasts forever and perhaps contracting including software development has run it's course.

Perhaps it might be better to find an alternative income stream, I was hoping to retire in a couple of years anyway.

[edison]

I use it more for short term relative numbers, month on month change is an indicator of if things are improving or going backwards. Sadly its the latter at the moment.

Another indicator i use: One of my old agents has all their roles listed on their website site. When things are good they have 20+ roles listed, they are currently down to six roles. Which is similar to what they had at the Covid lows in 2020.

I use the same indicator with an agency that has placed me three times. They normally have around 200 contract and perm jobs on their site. It's around a third lower in total now. Proportionately they have more perm/FTC roles now, contract roles are half the normal number.

[edison]

Would need to be a year on year comparison with Autumn last year.

Not saying that the market is in any way good but I am not sure Jobserve is the force it used to be. I can't remember the last contract I got through it and am fairly sure the ones I have got were never advertised on there.

I agree, the site seems to have been quite pants for a few years now.

I surprised myself by finding my current role through an agency I'd never heard of, after making contact with an agent advertising a different role there a few weeks previously.

[Fraidycat]

Would need to be a year on year comparison with Autumn last year.

Not saying that the market is in any way good but I am not sure Jobserve is the force it used to be. I can't remember the last contract I got through it and am fairly sure the ones I have got were never advertised on there.

I use it more for short term relative numbers, month on month change is an indicator of if things are improving or going backwards. Sadly its the latter at the moment.

Another indicator i use: One of my old agents has all their roles listed on their website site. When things are good they have 20+ roles listed, they are currently down to six roles. Which is similar to what they had at the Covid lows in 2020.

[SussexSeagull]

Talking of Jobserve, job listings completely collapsed on Jobserve around two weeks after the budget. From a high of 43,000 down to 16,000 in the headline number on the front page this week.

It is a little bit early to blame that entire drop on Xmas?

The UK government isn't helping with confidence, one hope is Trump ignites confidence in the US, and the Big Tech firms in the US and the US Investment banks then start hiring again in the UK, so kick starting things here as well..

Would need to be a year on year comparison with Autumn last year.

Not saying that the market is in any way good but I am not sure Jobserve is the force it used to be. I can't remember the last contract I got through it and am fairly sure the ones I have got were never advertised on there.

[Fraidycat]

Talking of Jobserve, job listings completely collapsed on Jobserve around two weeks after the budget. From a high of 43,000 down to 16,000 in the headline number on the front page this week.

It is a little bit early to blame that entire drop on Xmas?

The UK government isn't helping with confidence, one hope is Trump ignites confidence in the US, and the Big Tech firms in the US and the US Investment banks then start hiring again in the UK, so kick starting things here as well..

[SchumiStars]

I started using Jobserve in 1999 to find my first role. It was the .dot.com boom and I had absolutely no problems getting interviews and offers. It was fantastic.

I remember having 5 interviews one day and as a young grad, in a oversized suit, walking from one offer to another offer. Loved it!

[SussexSeagull]

The whole thing is an absolute mess, but slightly better than Jobserve which seems to simply have no jobs.

It doesn't really serve much, either.

[SussexSeagull]

I know people, me being one of them, enjoying the contractor lifestyle of new challenges and avoiding office politics but ultimately it is a way of paying the mortgage and rates going through the floor is just going to push the better people into permanent roles to either weather the storm or see them out until retirement where they can enjoy paid time off and other benefits.

The HMRC will get what they wanted. It's just they should have been careful what they wished for.