Reply to: State of the Market

[ladymuck]

I've seen a couple of gigs in the past few days are worth going for but whether the agents call me back is another matter entirely. I'm deciding to see that as a positive move.

[PCTNN]

Think it's much better for mental health too.

Sure, being closed in your home office with no in-person social interactions for 35-40 hours a week I'm sure works wonders for your mental health.

100% WFH I've noticed seems to be much preferred by some particular types of workers, read developers. Which have always been kinda socially awkward and overall weird AF so I get that. BAs, PMs and similar are less socially awkward so all they want is face to face interactions.

[churchillsnip]

The issue with this, is that it's very often an idea and it stays in this phase. No one can force anyone to have face to face interactions and depending on the job, you might not even have that many, so you'll end up in the office having a 15min chat with someone about something and then simply working as you would from home.

The whole WFH malarkey needs to be dealt with on an individual basis, some people thrive with WFH, others do bugger all and their productivity drops to the floor.

I honestly don't think this is generally about productivity - completely agree with you on individual basis. If productivity suffers, it shows a weakness in management/hiring.

It depends largely on the senior execs and what motivates them. There's a lot of psychological value to certain personality types working in the office. A lot of social/hierarchical validation that is difficult to get from teams calls.

[churchillsnip]

But the BOE projection is 3.5% to 3.25% rates in 2025 and 2026.

Will that be enough?

I think it will be. To state the obvious, inflation is what matters at the end of the day. Markets react poorly to implied requirement on borrowing/QE. Labour are making the right noises about fiscal responsibility, so I doubt they'll spook the markets.

The CPI is, err, 'well managed' at the best of times. As independent as the ONS supposedly is, I expect they'll add a little pressure to the finger on the scales when it comes to CPI prints.

I'm optimistic for the second half of the year.

[dsc]

It's no justification at all. Don't get me wrong whilst I love WFH I can see business benefit by being in the office so as long we're not all stuck on zoom\teams calls all day. In fact where I currently work (HSBC) the department head suggested a return to the office would be coming, at which point the permies raised exactly the point about being on video calls all day i.e. they requested that this didn't happen and requested that in office attendance was focussed around face 2 face sessions, meetings etc

The issue with this, is that it's very often an idea and it stays in this phase. No one can force anyone to have face to face interactions and depending on the job, you might not even have that many, so you'll end up in the office having a 15min chat with someone about something and then simply working as you would from home.

The whole WFH malarkey needs to be dealt with on an individual basis, some people thrive with WFH, others do bugger all and their productivity drops to the floor.

[avonleigh]

Been working from home since August 2020. Don't get why anybody would want to return to the office. I get much more done working from home as you don't have distractions and you tend to work longer as you don't have the commuting time. Think it's much better for mental health too. I don't get about coffee shops. How many coffee shops have closed down? None where I live and we have loads.

[herman_g]

I'm living in Greece doing a WFH contract for a Dutch bank. Best time of my life with highest productivity and a team of people I consider great friends. The team was given a choice of coming to the office twice a month or meeting for beers as frequently. They opted for twice a month in the office (they have beers on one of those days from 4:00) but I'm exempt. I've gone 3 times, however, and been one of three people from my team. They end up leaving sometime between noon and 3:00 and I'm left in an empty room. The one guy (a real character) lives across the street and refuses to come to the office. It was really nice of him, however, to come for about an hour just to meet me.

[Fraidycat]

We need lower interest rates

It's all about rates cuts, if they can cut rates enough without causing another bout of inflation we will be off to the races again.

But the BOE projection is 3.5% to 3.25% rates in 2025 and 2026.

Will that be enough?


The state of the market is currently dire in terms of job postings, at December/xmas levels, and that was even before the election was announced.

[gables]

Putting money into the pockets of coffee shop owners and commercial property landlords isn’t the greatest justification for working from an office I’ve ever read.

We need lower interest rates and some business confidence. Almost every sector is ripe for investment with the advancement of LLMs - every company is worried about getting left behind. At a fundamental level, and with potential for a new government to (at the very least) allow for new and optimistic narratives to hook onto, we could be in a great position in a few months time.

It's no justification at all. Don't get me wrong whilst I love WFH I can see business benefit by being in the office so as long we're not all stuck on zoom\teams calls all day. In fact where I currently work (HSBC) the department head suggested a return to the office would be coming, at which point the permies raised exactly the point about being on video calls all day i.e. they requested that this didn't happen and requested that in office attendance was focussed around face 2 face sessions, meetings etc

[gables]

If we all returned to the office, the company would have no choice but to hire space, thus, increasing the footfall to that particular area. Coffee shops, bars, eatery's.

Landlords would be happy and we would not have so many empty offices.

I believe that WFH has backfired. The money that was saved during Covid was used for projects last year which is why we had a mini increase. Now all that rent money has been spent, we have no money for new projects and no money for an office.

and decrease footfall to local area, coffee shops, bars eatery's etc.. ah but who cares about where people actually live so as long as Starbucks in the city is fine. I've noticed a definite benefit in my local area from, presumably, more people working from home.

[churchillsnip]

Putting money into the pockets of coffee shop owners and commercial property landlords isn’t the greatest justification for working from an office I’ve ever read.

We need lower interest rates and some business confidence. Almost every sector is ripe for investment with the advancement of LLMs - every company is worried about getting left behind. At a fundamental level, and with potential for a new government to (at the very least) allow for new and optimistic narratives to hook onto, we could be in a great position in a few months time.

[SchumiStars]

If we all returned to the office, the company would have no choice but to hire space, thus, increasing the footfall to that particular area. Coffee shops, bars, eatery's.

Landlords would be happy and we would not have so many empty offices.

I believe that WFH has backfired. The money that was saved during Covid was used for projects last year which is why we had a mini increase. Now all that rent money has been spent, we have no money for new projects and no money for an office.

[oliverson]

To play devil's advocate, who are the kids going to learn from and interact with if the old timers with the experience to share are WFH because they've "put in their desk duty"?

The mid-levels?

[ladymuck]

Then there's the never ending DPD vans pulling up, everybody in your neighbourhood undertaking building work (extensions, new gardens, etc), the missus hoovering up, the dogs barking at cat's they can see through the patio doors/living room window. Thank god we don't have kids thrown into the mix. Let's not kid ourselves that we're sat there in total silence and bliss, being > 100% productive.

However, this totally remote gig suits me given my age and the fact my career as a contractor is coming to a close. I've put in my desk duty over the 40 years I've been in work but I've no intention of living in somebody's spare room or hotels mid-week back down in London like I did for 10+ years. But I think it's critical for younger people to get back to the office, at least part of the time. Isolation isn't good and learning from and interacting with others is important. There's also the wider economy that could do with it.

To play devil's advocate, who are the kids going to learn from and interact with if the old timers with the experience to share are WFH because they've "put in their desk duty"?

[dsc]

Then there's the never ending DPD vans pulling up, everybody in your neighbourhood undertaking building work (extensions, new gardens, etc), the missus hoovering up, the dogs barking at cat's they can see through the patio doors/living room window. Thank god we don't have kids thrown into the mix. Let's not kid ourselves that we're sat there in total silence and bliss, being > 100% productive.

Get yourself a pair of cans (headphones for those not familiar with the term) for £100 or some noise cancelling earphones (although those are typically a joke with the noise cancelling but better than nothing I guess) and work away. I'd go mental without anything to block all the noise from outside, but that's true for the office as well.

Also, set you status to busy on Teams and ignore anyone trying to contact you if you are really busy and want to do work.