Reply to: State of the Market

[rocktronAMP]

We haven't seen the worst of it yet.
There is supposedly a long lag between interest rate hikes and the effect they have on the economy.
It wont be until 2025 that the economy feels the full effect of 5% interest rates.
If they don't cut rates this year, we are in for more pain.

Mortgage rates have increased again https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g8p440309o
""House prices fell in April as potential buyers continued to face pressure on affordability, according to the Nationwide."
after having fallen around Xmas 2023.
Inflation rate might also rise again by 2025.
We've have to see.

[sreed]

For any roles that can be filled by people with IT experience newly arrived from xxxxx or someone sitting in Asia, it’s a race to the bottom. There’s no two ways about it.

[edison]

Just seen a Service Desk Analyst role at £11.80ph PAYE advertised by Hays. That equates to £88.50 for a typical 7.5 hour working day

Must have security clearance too!

At this rate, contractors will be working twenty nine hours a day down the mill, and paying the mill owner for permission to come to work.

[Fraidycat]

By the same token, £600 in 2001 is £1,085 in today's money.

And it was plain Java/JSP work with custom JDBC at the back end. Really mundane stuff.

[edison]

Yeah my rate fell from around £600 a day in 2001 to £300 a day in 2002.

£300 a day felt like a pittance in comparison. But the Bank of England website says £300 a day in 2002 is the same as £535 in todays money.

By the same token, £600 in 2001 is £1,085 in today's money.

[Fraidycat]

IIRC some of the contractors who were around during those two periods have posted that rates halved in the worst cases.

Yeah my rate fell from around £600 a day in 2001 to £300 a day in 2002.

£300 a day felt like a pittance in comparison. But the Bank of England website says £300 a day in 2002 is the same as £535 in todays money.

[sreed]

I watered down my search alert on linked in and it's been pinging away with a whole host of random roles the last few days. Gonna have to tighten it back up as none of them relate to me but does seem quite a few popping up in the last few days. Anyone else see this?

Granted still not a measure as it could be only one advert for a certain skill set in a few days but total numbers wise it seems to be better.

Comparing it to last year, that matches what I'm seeing on my broad Reed alert for PM roles in FS, albeit mostly hybrid-London.

[northernladuk]

I watered down my search alert on linked in and it's been pinging away with a whole host of random roles the last few days. Gonna have to tighten it back up as none of them relate to me but does seem quite a few popping up in the last few days. Anyone else see this?

Granted still not a measure as it could be only one advert for a certain skill set in a few days but total numbers wise it seems to be better.

[BlueSharp]

Not everything Harvard Business School publish is good but traditionally they do a lot of research to back up their theories.

In this case, I think the article is fair, namely that politics shouldn't be seen as a negative thing. "At their core they are just the range of informal, unofficial and sometimes behind the scenes efforts that happen in all organizations as people position themselves, their interests, their teams, and their priorities to get things done."

The example given of seeking to influence stakeholders before a governance meeting to approve a project is very common in my experience, I use it all the time.

Unless you're literally going to sit in a corner and do exactly what you are told, 'politics' i.e. relationship building and influencing, has to be part of your role to some extent, surely? Even if you are there less than a year (like most of my gigs are.)

I think people confuse Machiavellian behaviour with day-to-day office politics.

[edison]

when you say worse - contractors working for free to get experience / foot in the door? Kind of like the internship model for graduates?

I don't think people will be working for free for typical contractor work where years of experience is required.

However, with supply and demand being what it is and what it may become, rates are only going to continue to fall in real terms outside of niche/hot skills.

IIRC some of the contractors who were around during those two periods have posted that rates halved in the worst cases.

[Fraidycat]

Who has time to do politics?

The project managers i guess and all the other the layabouts who don't have any real work to do

[hungry_hog]

I wasn't contracting around the time of the dot com bust around 2000-02 or the financial crisis around 07-09 but I think the UK market can definitely get significantly worse. Some key economic indicators are still relatively healthy e.g. employment and house prices.

When these likely start to fall in the wake of rising interest rates, I think consumer confidence will take a hit again and take business investment down with it.

I just don't see any significant catalysts on the horizon for companies to want to increase current investment in IT projects.

when you say worse - contractors working for free to get experience / foot in the door? Kind of like the internship model for graduates?

[GJABS]

All this talk about "politics" is confusing to me. I've never seen any politics at the many companies I've contracted at, as I think most people find it enough of an effort to do the actual work, to be involved in anything more. Who has time to do politics?

[edison]

Surely it cannot get any worse for IT? We have to be at rock bottom now. I cannot see how it can possibly get any worse from here.

I wasn't contracting around the time of the dot com bust around 2000-02 or the financial crisis around 07-09 but I think the UK market can definitely get significantly worse. Some key economic indicators are still relatively healthy e.g. employment and house prices.

When these likely start to fall in the wake of rising interest rates, I think consumer confidence will take a hit again and take business investment down with it.

I just don't see any significant catalysts on the horizon for companies to want to increase current investment in IT projects.

[edison]

If you're only sticking around for a client a 6-12 months rather than until the end of the project, I suggest understanding office politics and what the organisation needs is something for you to work on.

This might help educate you more on the role of office politics, unless of course you know better than one of the most prestige business school publications.

https://hbr.org/2021/07/you-cant-sit...ffice-politics

Do you see the irony in making a statement such as politics being underhand and superficial is you playing politics to advance your viewpoint over others opinions?

Not everything Harvard Business School publish is good but traditionally they do a lot of research to back up their theories.

In this case, I think the article is fair, namely that politics shouldn't be seen as a negative thing. "At their core they are just the range of informal, unofficial and sometimes behind the scenes efforts that happen in all organizations as people position themselves, their interests, their teams, and their priorities to get things done."

The example given of seeking to influence stakeholders before a governance meeting to approve a project is very common in my experience, I use it all the time.

Unless you're literally going to sit in a corner and do exactly what you are told, 'politics' i.e. relationship building and influencing, has to be part of your role to some extent, surely? Even if you are there less than a year (like most of my gigs are.)