Reply to: State of the Market

[avonleigh]

Covid year, 2020, aside. The vast majority of contractors had it good between 2011 and 2022.

There may have been a very small minority that struggled between 2011 and 2022, but that was probably down to them (out of date skillset) but not due to the state of the market.

It has only been since mid 2022 that large numbers of contractors have been struggling to find anything at all.

Totally agree on this. The market has only been in decline since 2022.

And big congrats to Oliverson.

[sadkingbilly]

there have been boom times and lean times since 1972 in contracting.
it didn't start in 199x or whenever webdevs were conceived.
contracting's about surviving the vagaries.

[Fraidycat]

Covid year, 2020, aside. The vast majority of contractors had it good between 2011 and 2022.

There may have been a very small minority that struggled between 2011 and 2022, but that was probably down to them (out of date skillset) but not due to the state of the market.

It has only been since mid 2022 that large numbers of contractors have been struggling to find anything at all.

[sadkingbilly]

which market IS this the state of?
stock market? jobs market? ollie's got a gig market? fraidy's fearful forecasts?
asking for a friend.

[Fraidycat]

Fraidy is still in denial about the decline, claiming a thread that is almost 10 years old really only started just over 3 years ago.

In other market news, I see the FTSE hit an all-time high on 12/11/25, so it’s not all bad.

The UK in general and the IT sector had falling unemployment all the way from 2011 to 2020.

2016 to 2020 were very good years as hiring increased and unemployment fell across the board.

2021 was a boom year as Tech hiring ramped up and unemployment fell after Covid.

That 2021 tech boom was followed by a bust in 2022 that is still on going.

Unemployment in both the UK and IT sector been increasing for the last 40 months.


This chart is part of the official UK ONS unemployment chart since 2011.

[WTFH]

Keeping true to the evidence that falling markets never fall in a stright line.

No change in the trajectory at this point for 2025.

Fraidy is still in denial about the decline, claiming a thread that is almost 10 years old really only started just over 3 years ago.

In other market news, I see the FTSE hit an all-time high on 12/11/25, so it’s not all bad.

[Bluenose]

And the promising spike up in the jobserve headline number is now back to what it was earlier this year.

40 months, this IT jobs market recession has now turned in to a depression.

With the perm market almost as bad as the contract market from what I can tell.

Keeping true to the evidence that falling markets never fall in a stright line.

No change in the trajectory at this point for 2025.

[NotAllThere]

[Dorkeaux]

In anticipation of Oliverson's permaban, I'll forgo the "Reply with quote" option.

Congratulations. Have a banana:

[oliverson]

So, hot off a banning for calling Reeves ‘Rachel from accounts’, deemed as ‘sexism’. Let’s leave it right there shall we?

in my banned time I have some good news in the form of two offers, one of which I accepted and start Monday possibly. Possibly 2-3 years of work on this project I’m told. Outside IR35 and totally remote. Not the biggest rate I’ve had but the value of the project over time is significant.

Sad to decline the other offer but whilst a higher rate and a more fulfilling project, the duration was short. Again outside IR35 and totally remote except an odd visit to the office once a month or so. On receiving my rejection the client was gutted so I’m told. Feel kind of bad on that but perhaps we can work something out later on. There may be an outside chance of servicing both contracts.

just goes to show that dogged determination pays off in the end and the phrase ‘ when you’re going through hell, keep going’ rings very true.

keep believing people!

[Fraidycat]

After a really good late September and the whole of October, November has reverted back to the average.

I am not having problems securing work but many others are really struggling.

And the promising spike up in the jobserve headline number is now back to what it was earlier this year.

40 months, this IT jobs market recession has now turned in to a depression.

With the perm market almost as bad as the contract market from what I can tell.

[Bluenose]

After a really good late September and the whole of October, November has reverted back to the average.

I am not having problems securing work but many others are really struggling.

[herman_g]

Yep. In some sense the really big players look Micrsoft or Google know there will be a crash, but also know they will survive. So competing hard in AI could be a way for them to kill off the competition in the longer term.

Sold all AI stocks I own. Also sold all my bitcoin just as the current downtrend was getting started. Gold miners is where its at for me currently. $$

I'm just a day trader. Still buying and selling stocks that have incorporated AI into their name as the general investment community has no clue about tech. My favourite was an American company that made tennis balls one day and woke up the next day as an AI firm. Stock went straight up and straight down. I manage a 40% gain.

That said, even the best AI firms have no future without huge advancements in power generation.

[willendure]

AI will have the exact same crash as the dot.com boom. Hard to figure out which one will be bigger.

During the 1999 dot.com boom, any penny stock company that sent out runours of internet involvement went from nothing to gold and then later nothing.

Now, they just stick AI on the back of their name and the stock soars.

A single NVIDIA partner data center (under construction) was shown to need as much electricity to power it as it takes to power NYC, That power does not exist in the USA. Yet, they just keep building those data centers.

The AI revolution is going nowhere. Yet, for now, those AI companies are being pumped with cash with few investors considering the upcoming crash.

Yep. In some sense the really big players look Micrsoft or Google know there will be a crash, but also know they will survive. So competing hard in AI could be a way for them to kill off the competition in the longer term.

Sold all AI stocks I own. Also sold all my bitcoin just as the current downtrend was getting started. Gold miners is where its at for me currently. $$

[herman_g]

When someone like him that warns he's really worried about irrational AI investment levels then it's really time to start to worry.

It feels like 1999 again...

AI will have the exact same crash as the dot.com boom. Hard to figure out which one will be bigger.

During the 1999 dot.com boom, any penny stock company that sent out runours of internet involvement went from nothing to gold and then later nothing.

Now, they just stick AI on the back of their name and the stock soars.

A single NVIDIA partner data center (under construction) was shown to need as much electricity to power it as it takes to power NYC, That power does not exist in the USA. Yet, they just keep building those data centers.

The AI revolution is going nowhere. Yet, for now, those AI companies are being pumped with cash with few investors considering the upcoming crash.