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Previously on "State of the Market"

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  • sadkingbilly
    replied
    Originally posted by Cookielove View Post
    It’s simple economics we have had mass immigration over the last 25 years ….that is a fact …why do you think we ended up with Brexit!

    it has and does affect all sectors …doesn’t matter if they are pink, orange or green or which country they’ve come from the sheer numbers have driven down wages …so many more applicants for jobs hence lower wages.

    The double whammy is that they have on the whole come from much poorer countries so that exasperates the issue too.

    Plus the visa situation being exploited has added to the volume…its numbers pure and simple …

    No one could have foresaw this shift in such a relatively short space of time…jobs have hundreds of applicants now that just wasn’t the case 10/20 years ago …PMO job £150 /inside?! any takers?

    AI is a lesser issue I believe ….
    Exacerbates.

    what's a PMO? another useless so-called 'XXX Manager' ??

    Leave a comment:


  • jamesbrown
    replied
    Originally posted by Cookielove View Post
    No one could have foresaw this shift in such a relatively short space of time…jobs have hundreds of applicants now that just wasn’t the case 10/20 years ago …PMO job £150 /inside?! any takers?
    Not true. It was easily foreseeable and foreseen by many around here. Some of the very earliest posts in this thread allude to it, almost 10 years ago now . Regardless, you can see it now, right? Your skillset has been commoditized under your nose. No amount of protectionist or anti-immigrant legislation is going to rescue you. What have you done about it? What are you doing about it? What are you going to do about it?

    Leave a comment:


  • eek
    replied
    Rates are low because few people are recruiting - prime example on Saturday Jobserve has 20,500 jobs - even at the lowest point of Covid it had 10,000

    Leave a comment:


  • Cookielove
    replied
    It’s simple economics we have had mass immigration over the last 25 years ….that is a fact …why do you think we ended up with Brexit!

    it has and does affect all sectors …doesn’t matter if they are pink, orange or green or which country they’ve come from the sheer numbers have driven down wages …so many more applicants for jobs hence lower wages.

    The double whammy is that they have on the whole come from much poorer countries so that exasperates the issue too.

    Plus the visa situation being exploited has added to the volume…its numbers pure and simple …

    No one could have foresaw this shift in such a relatively short space of time…jobs have hundreds of applicants now that just wasn’t the case 10/20 years ago …PMO job £150 /inside?! any takers?

    AI is a lesser issue I believe ….

    Leave a comment:


  • eek
    replied
    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post

    I said back in the day, 25 years ago, that open source was going to eventually devalue/commoditise our work.

    And the final nail in the coffin, AI has been trained on all that open source code as well.

    Facebook are doing the same thing with AI at the moment, facebook is spending billions on AI for their own websites/apps, but then making those models open source just to devalue/commoditise the work Google and Microsoft and OpenAI are doing.
    Sorry but Nope. AI is like everything else - hyped beyond it's capabilities.

    AI will allow me to write code - I can tell it exactly what I want it to do and it will generate usable code, ask your typical business user though and their instructions will not be specific enough so while the code may work it won't work that well.

    As I've pointed out on here before, the advantage we have is that we can take a vague request from the business and convert it into a usable system - now if you need explicit instructions than AI is going to take you work but if you can take vague instructions and create the system the user wants AI won't be coming for your job just yet.

    Leave a comment:


  • jamesbrown
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post

    You seem to be implying that the remedy to generic skillsets becoming commoditized (and rates to fall as a result) is to acquire specialised skillsets.
    But isn't "specialised" just another word for "rare"?
    The problem we have is that a small proportion of the circa 1 billion Indian population (and other nations) have decided to pursue IT as a career, and work for western companies either local or remote. While most of these have acquired generic skillsets themselves (competing with us), isn't there a chance that some of them might also learn the same specialist skills that you have, and compete with you as a result?

    For regular contractors in the UK, who don't have particular entrepreneurial skills or are not blessed with the gift of original thinking, it seems to me to be far from clear what we should have done over the past 10 years to mitigate this problem.
    I'm not implying that is the only remedy or, indeed, that there is one at all. A complete change of profession is extraordinarily difficult to pull off. Others will have looked at plan Bs such as property or other investments. Those blessed with the gift of original thought have probably used it. Many others will have been left behind. For them, there may be no remedy, practically speaking. But there is no point whatsoever in trying to blame this on immigration. It's akin to blaming the moon for high tides. You cannot fight these forces and they've been blindingly obvious for some time. Whether you or others could've done more is very hard to say.

    I'm absolutely vulnerable to the same forces in the long-run (as I noted earlier), although my specialism does require a quantitative Ph.D., so it will probably be a while before it happens. It takes time to build a competitive university sector and the USA and UK remain completely dominant for now. But I'm under no illusion that, as these huge economies expand and improve their universities, competition will dramatically increase. At the same time, I'm not afraid of it, I welcome it.

    I'm not offering you or others a solution, more an alternative perspective. It's easy to blame immigrants, but the reality is they've done nothing more than you would do in their position and they've probably seen the opportunity to better themselves more quickly than many people around here spotted the impending risks to their own livelihoods and bettered themselves. Nonetheless, the risk was hiding in plain sight.

    Leave a comment:


  • edison
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post

    To answer my own question, I think part of the problem is that IT has become too easy.
    Back in the day, computer programming was intellectually difficult and complex, and this difficulty provided a barrier to entry because many candidates were not capable of getting up to speed with the technology.

    Nowadays it is a lot easier due to frameworks and GUIs, resulting in millions being able to gain the skills.

    Of course it is true that it is not so easy to do programming -well-, but commercially this is often not mandatory if it can be done ok in a so-so manner - so doing it well won't pay the big bucks any more.

    Maybe the solution is to look towards the next technology that has not yet been made "easy", where you have to be quite clever in order to do it at all in the first place. AI is an obvious one, but I'm sure there are others.

    (..s*d's law will mean I will turn out to not to be clever enough lol..)
    I saw a recent quote from a leader on Surrey University's AI PhD course saying that if they had the capacity, they could churn out hundreds of PhD students a year and they would all get great, high paying jobs. Clearly not everyone has the talent to do a PhD but the AI talent race has been going on for about 10 years and really hotted up in the last couple.

    But how long will this last?

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post
    Nowadays it is a lot easier due to frameworks and GUIs, resulting in millions being able to gain the skills.
    I said back in the day, 25 years ago, that open source was going to eventually devalue/commoditise our work.

    And the final nail in the coffin, AI has been trained on all that open source code as well.

    Facebook are doing the same thing with AI at the moment, facebook is spending billions on AI for their own websites/apps, but then making those models open source just to devalue/commoditise the work Google and Microsoft and OpenAI are doing.
    Last edited by Fraidycat; Yesterday, 22:13.

    Leave a comment:


  • Unix
    replied
    Bob has been around since I started contacting and it's never impacted me, other than having to fix their bad workmanship. Intelligent managers know this and always have a few experienced contractors in a team to balance out the poor skills from the bobs.

    Leave a comment:


  • GJABS
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post

    For regular contractors in the UK, who don't have particular entrepreneurial skills or are not blessed with the gift of original thinking, it seems to me to be far from clear what we should have done over the past 10 years to mitigate this problem.
    To answer my own question, I think part of the problem is that IT has become too easy.
    Back in the day, computer programming was intellectually difficult and complex, and this difficulty provided a barrier to entry because many candidates were not capable of getting up to speed with the technology.

    Nowadays it is a lot easier due to frameworks and GUIs, resulting in millions being able to gain the skills.

    Of course it is true that it is not so easy to do programming -well-, but commercially this is often not mandatory if it can be done ok in a so-so manner - so doing it well won't pay the big bucks any more.

    Maybe the solution is to look towards the next technology that has not yet been made "easy", where you have to be quite clever in order to do it at all in the first place. AI is an obvious one, but I'm sure there are others.

    (..s*d's law will mean I will turn out to not to be clever enough lol..)

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by dsc View Post
    In a global market you need to make yourself "special" somehow

    There is nothing special that bob cant also do.


    Just look at these two handsome chaps. They got 2 of the top 3 top tech jobs in the world:


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  • dsc
    replied
    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post

    Yet you don't mention what your specialism is? I doubt it is anything really specialised at all, that anyone else with general experience and a decent IQ couldn't pick up within a few months..
    I'd say it doesn't need to be anything special, you just need to know where there's a lack of knowledgeable people and specialise in that. When that stops being a niche, move on to something else. In a global market you need to make yourself "special" somehow, especially now when there's 2 generations cross country fighting for a limited amount of positions.

    Also, it's funny that a year or so ago, remote was all the jazz, but now suddenly that is bad as it opens up candidate pools substantially.

    Leave a comment:


  • CoolCat
    replied
    Originally posted by eek View Post

    Hardly surprising because they are now here so there is nothing you can do about it.

    I will ignore the blatant racism
    We could easily stop issuing visas to Indian nationals with generic skills, we could easily stop renewing visas for those already here not already granted indefinite leave to remain, we could easily start taxing them at least as much as locals, we could easily do a lot of things.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
    I have become rather specialised myself
    Yet you don't mention what your specialism is? I doubt it is anything really specialised at all, that anyone else with general experience and a decent IQ couldn't pick up within a few months..

    Leave a comment:


  • GJABS
    replied
    Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

    Correct, you cannot compete with a generic/commoditized skillset and expect to maintain a contract rate or permie salary that resembles something you might have enjoyed until recently, especially if you started during the dotcom boom. I'm sorry for your loss (only partly joking). No one owes you a living. Competing might still mean a significant reduction in expected income, especially as more highly skilled roles begin to become commoditized. I have become rather specialised myself (albeit in a transferrable skillset, not in some arbitrary software framework or coding language), and I am not remotely complacent about the risks to my future income, so I plan accordingly, as best I can.

    But, let's be absolutely honest, if you had a generic skillset and didn't realise 10 or more years ago that it was heading in this direction, then you've been extraordinarily naïve. You aren't the only one, there are many like you, evidently in this thread.
    ...
    You seem to be implying that the remedy to generic skillsets becoming commoditized (and rates to fall as a result) is to acquire specialised skillsets.
    But isn't "specialised" just another word for "rare"?
    The problem we have is that a small proportion of the circa 1 billion Indian population (and other nations) have decided to pursue IT as a career, and work for western companies either local or remote. While most of these have acquired generic skillsets themselves (competing with us), isn't there a chance that some of them might also learn the same specialist skills that you have, and compete with you as a result?

    For regular contractors in the UK, who don't have particular entrepreneurial skills or are not blessed with the gift of original thinking, it seems to me to be far from clear what we should have done over the past 10 years to mitigate this problem.

    Leave a comment:

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