Reply to: State of the Market

[SchumiStars]

You got me curious to check out the Jan numbers going back a couple of years to get a fuller picture:

2025 - 13,900
2024 - 41,572
2023 - 31,902
2022 - 51,589
2021 - 8,242
2020 - 14,593
2019 - 16,607
2018 - 12,248
2017 - 17,576
2016 - 15,225
2015 - 20,254

Not always on the same day in Jan, but I tried to find a snapshot from mid Jan each time, so the new years market is up and running.

In that longer view, 13,900 does not actually look too bad, I was not worried at all about finding a new contract in 2015 to 2020. Seems like its actually the last 3 years readings that are on the high side, I guess 2022/23 was the covid re-opening bounce, and 2021 the lockdown moment.

Thanks for this. However 2024 was terrible. 2023 was the last time I had a contract! Not sure what to make of it tbh.

Unfortunately JS does not report the contracts or openings which were filled positively, that would be an awesome statistic.

[Fraidycat]

In that longer view, 13,900 does not actually look too bad, I was not worried at all about finding a new contract in 2015 to 2020.

I think low numbers of vacancies are ok when there are no or very few contractors on the bench.

Back in 2018 an agent was telling me she was lucky to get 3 good CVs per role.

We need the benches cleared somehow, things will remain tough while so many people are chasing so few roles.

[willendure]

I know jobserve is just one reference point, but currently the headline number is 13,900, using wayback machine the number this time last year was 41,500.

It was also over 40,000 at the end of August last year of all months, but after the Budget that bounce vanished (actually began to vanish in September when starmer gave notice that the budget was going to be 'painful').

Has not recovered since.

You got me curious to check out the Jan numbers going back a couple of years to get a fuller picture:

2025 - 13,900
2024 - 41,572
2023 - 31,902
2022 - 51,589
2021 - 8,242
2020 - 14,593
2019 - 16,607
2018 - 12,248
2017 - 17,576
2016 - 15,225
2015 - 20,254

Not always on the same day in Jan, but I tried to find a snapshot from mid Jan each time, so the new years market is up and running.

In that longer view, 13,900 does not actually look too bad, I was not worried at all about finding a new contract in 2015 to 2020. Seems like its actually the last 3 years readings that are on the high side, I guess 2022/23 was the covid re-opening bounce, and 2021 the lockdown moment.

[Fraidycat]

I know jobserve is just one reference point, but currently the headline number is 13,900, using wayback machine the number this time last year was 41,500.

It was also over 40,000 at the end of August last year of all months, but after the Budget that bounce vanished (actually began to vanish in September when starmer gave notice that the budget was going to be 'painful').

Has not recovered since.

[SussexSeagull]

The economics of outsourcing can work at smaller scale now. I did a project a couple of years ago to outsource the service desk and application support plus a whole host of other IT capabilities to an Indian outsourcer and the client only had 600 users.

I am sure they can but below a certain level there is a case for contractors or some of the agents/consultancies that seem to exist.

All of this said, I am not convinced there is a huge amount of work going on full stop at the moment.

[edison]

This is it. The Government can control Visas but they can't realistically stop outsourcing.

I had some success working with SME who probably couldn't make the economies of scale of outsourcing work for them, although I have been out since May last year. That said the interviews I have had have been in that space.

The economics of outsourcing can work at smaller scale now. I did a project a couple of years ago to outsource the service desk and application support plus a whole host of other IT capabilities to an Indian outsourcer and the client only had 600 users.

[willendure]

I am not trying to start an argument but trying to answer my own question as to why the market is so ******* tulip.

Its the economy, stupid.

The magic money tree has run dry. There are other factors around tier 2 visas, outsourcing, and so on, but we are talking about these UK issues like what is happening here is special. The world economy outside of the USA is doing really quite badly at the moment. Govts have collapsed in Germany, France, Canada, Japan, South Korea.

[SussexSeagull]

I do think outsourcing being more prevalent due to cheaper solutions available than expensive contractors.

They can agree SLAs, perhaps cheaper than paying agencies for workers were they are gambling on the quality of resource.

You say expensive but it depends on the project. If you need one person for three months then contractors are still competitive. If you need a (now virtual) floor full of developers foe two years then a consultancy is the way to go.

Which to me is the blg change over the last few years. Companies weren't afraid to resource large projects with contractors. They are now.

[SchumiStars]

I do think outsourcing being more prevalent due to cheaper solutions available than expensive contractors.

They can agree SLAs, perhaps cheaper than paying agencies for workers were they are gambling on the quality of resource.

[SussexSeagull]

Jobs have been outsourced for years, people being remote has had zero impact on the state of the market in my opinion. Since circa 2020 companies were also giving more work to consultancies because they couldn't be arsed with the complexities of IR35. So that led to more outsourcing.

Offshoring and the consultancies do have an overlap.

[avonleigh]

Jobs have been outsourced for years, people being remote has had zero impact on the state of the market in my opinion. Since circa 2020 companies were also giving more work to consultancies because they couldn't be arsed with the complexities of IR35. So that led to more outsourcing.

[SussexSeagull]

No they wouldn't, they would accelerate their efforts to outsource the work to the indians etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wapping_dispute

This is it. The Government can control Visas but they can't realistically stop outsourcing.

I had some success working with SME who probably couldn't make the economies of scale of outsourcing work for them, although I have been out since May last year. That said the interviews I have had have been in that space.

[GJABS]

If the UK workforce.demanded office based jobs then at least the companies would be forced into recruitment from the UK in the main. Which would then create demand and wage rises.

No they wouldn't, they would accelerate their efforts to outsource the work to the indians etc.

We are like the print workers who went on strike in 1986 to try to force Rupert Murdoch to keep us employed on the Mirror newspaper when he replaced us with modern printing methods that were much cheaper than we were with the move to Wapping.

And we don't even have the unions on our side (not that I would recommend that).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wapping_dispute

[SussexSeagull]

TBF, I do agree with you on some aspects. But then what do we do with all the office space in London, some of it, very expensive?

Yes, some can be turned into residential flat but the costs involved are usually massive, paid for by the owners and landlords.

Shirley, there is a financial hit that someone is bearing, including all of the associated taxes, utilities, travel costs that companies pay.

The government is loosing loads of cash with everyone working from home. All the coffee shops, the trains, the pubs are taking less cash, therefore less taxation.

Office based employment is a massive economic driver for the designated town, city and country.

Friday!

With kind regards, SchumiStars.

This is all true but companies are only interested in saving money to increase profits. They don't really care about the local coffee shops (unless they are landlords or letting agents).

My last two contracts were in Newham, which is remote by London standards, and St Neots, which is remote by anyone's standards.

[Bluenose]

outsourcing aside, I think the rot really started in the City+Docklands when companies realised:

a) all their IT kit (i.e. their business) needs to be located outside of potential high risk buildings to avoid terrorist and other threats leading to....

b) people like the NYSE located their exchange in Bracknell rather than, Manhattan (I know its not entirely accurate but its accurate enough) leading to...

c) the IT systems that generated the revenue no longer being located with the IT teams leading to...

d) Said technology then moving into 'the cloud' leading to...

e) IT people being able to work anywhere covered under regulatory and risk reach on cloud assets that could be anywhere (within limits) leading to....

f) A percieved 'un-coupling' by Business people between the IT assets generating the business revenue and the IT people assets responsible for those assets leading to....

g) A further 'un-coupling' of the IT assets and the business people generating the revenue. i.e. banks running their front-offices from locations where it is cheaper but there are also less distractions and less crime e.g HSBC, Deustche Bank, Goldman moving people to Birmingham, Poland etc.

This decoupling can be tracked directly to the demise of the IT London jobs market and the lifestyle you describe. Tax cuts and deregulation won't reverse that, they may reverse the overall decline of City+Docklands as a place to do business but the lifestyle we used to enjoy from 1994-2012 (approx.) has gone forever.

I mentioned it before but we are talking 10-12 years after the fact, its been a slow grind down in London to where the London IT market is now, its taken years but its finally making people permanently unemployable unless they move locations.