Reply to: State of the Market

[SueEllen]

GJABS you seemed to have missed all the posts in the past about people doing OU degrees for "fun" before they put the fees up.

Funnily enough I've done a few random courses that have impressed clients.

Also having interviewed people in the past someone studying or doing something random e.g. random degree, painting, fishing, ballroom dancing, boxing, pigeon fancying gives you something to talk about.

[GJABS]

You obviously have to concentrate when doing your job to deliver but what about evenings and weekends? And of course, breaks between contracts are a perfect excuse to brush up on skills. Not all new skills need to take months or years to learn either.

I guess you're right. Certainly the gaps I've had between contracts I haven't utilized very well, having focused, if on anything, on things outside of my IT career.

I was talking about this with my therapist a couple of days ago. He suggested that my fear behind not wanting to get much more training might stem from a long term lack of confidence. A belief that I have a lack of a good working memory, that by choosing to learn new things will cause me to forget some of the existing things I know. Which might adversely affect my ability to do my current work. Also the "shaming" that some in the community here had against the idea of learning in the past (recall the criticism of the "paper MCSE" - the person who does all of the Microsoft certifications but is not able to do the job because he doesn't have the corresponding work experience).

My thinking, and I am not sure about this, is that perhaps I should change my attitude a little, away from a focus on the client and the work they need to have done, and instead towards the idea of learning new tech skills for their own sake. This is what I did back when I was 17, and it got me into Cambridge uni. There is something "pure" about study, in that it is always logical and success is not determined by someone's (the client's) opinion but rather upon the successful accumulation of specific facts.
There again, if you read any books on how to be successful they say the opposite, that those who know a lot of facts tend to fall behind those who know a lot of people/are able to solve real business problems. If I can somehow recapture that drive and sense of self esteem that I had back then, perhaps this might be worth it even if it risks alienating the client a bit.

[mogga71]

ah yes, I forgot the Feds role in the Tulip mania!

You're right that the Fed has a big influence in avaliable capital, and that is rocket fuel for a bubble.

But they do occur without undue influence from the Fed. We are teetering on one of many once in a lifetime innovations that could cause massive economic growth (tbf we been teetering for a while).

We are in a recession, anyone saying otherwise has a vested interest or on pure copium. Still seeing MSM and property experts saying the property market will recover by end of the year.

For interest rates I think it's a coin flip, between maintain and increase. No one is lowering anytime soon.

Lots of talk of a new Credit Event (most likely manifesting itself as a small Bank failure) over in the USA. When the Fed has to choose between dealing with a crisis or keeping interest rates high to combat inflation they will always choose the former. A bad credit event could quite easily ...in the space of a few days ... result in a liquidity crisis and the Fed lowering rates and switching on the money printers again. Of course the Fed will spin it saying they believe they now have inflation under control so the time is right etc.

[JustKeepSwimming]

They say it is the US Federal Reserve that is to blame for these last few mega bubbles. Flooding the markets with cheap money. So not really normal capitalism at work. The Bank of England is then forced to go along as well.

Recessions in both the US and UK are now widely expected in the next 6 to 12 month timeframe, as the lag effect of 5% interest rates finally hits. Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan, this week was talking about the possibility of 7% rates.

ah yes, I forgot the Feds role in the Tulip mania!

You're right that the Fed has a big influence in avaliable capital, and that is rocket fuel for a bubble.

But they do occur without undue influence from the Fed. We are teetering on one of many once in a lifetime innovations that could cause massive economic growth (tbf we been teetering for a while).

We are in a recession, anyone saying otherwise has a vested interest or on pure copium. Still seeing MSM and property experts saying the property market will recover by end of the year.

For interest rates I think it's a coin flip, between maintain and increase. No one is lowering anytime soon.

[edison]

Agree with both of these comments. Thanks.

Gaining IT skills while doing a job is risky though, because unless you are specifically being told to study something (as some permies are), if you are spending energy learning new skills then you are by definition spending less energy doing the job in hand for your current client. Clients are not stupid and they will pick up on this, and it might result in you getting fired, because they are only interested in their company's business; your career development is of no value to them if you're a contractor.

You obviously have to concentrate when doing your job to deliver but what about evenings and weekends? And of course, breaks between contracts are a perfect excuse to brush up on skills. Not all new skills need to take months or years to learn either.

[Fraidycat]

Bubbles are a fact of capitalism.

They say it is the US Federal Reserve that is to blame for these last few mega bubbles. Flooding the markets with cheap money. So not really normal capitalism at work. The Bank of England is then forced to go along as well.

Recessions in both the US and UK are now widely expected in the next 6 to 12 month timeframe, as the lag effect of 5% interest rates finally hits. Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan, this week was talking about the possibility of 7% rates.

[JustKeepSwimming]

Inflation adjusted, year 2000 was peak rates. I was on over £6000 a week in todays money doing bog standard java work.
And I was cheap, the CSC consultants on site were billing 3x what i was billing. And there were dozens of them. The client blew threw £12 million of dot com bubble venture capital in six months.

Demand for contractors will eventually return to normal. But rates will never exceed those of 2021 on an inflation adjusted basis ever again. Let alone the rates of 2000.

Bubbles are a fact of capitalism. You might not find yourself in the right skillset for the next bubble doesn't mean there won't be contractors earning 'obscene' rates in it.

I know someone who seeming has the Midas touch, he has ridden 3 mini bubbles so far and maintained £1000~ outside in FS over the last 5 years. Big Data > GDPR > Customer Duty. For all intents and purposes, he is a middling PM but manages the magical +10%, ie, appear to know 10% more on the subject than the person who is hiring you.

[JustKeepSwimming]

Gaining IT skills while doing a job is risky though, because unless you are specifically being told to study something (as some permies are), if you are spending energy learning new skills then you are by definition spending less energy doing the job in hand for your current client. Clients are not stupid and they will pick up on this, and it might result in you getting fired, because they are only interested in their company's business; your career development is of no value to them if you're a contractor.

This is wrong, and might explain a fair bit.

[GJABS]

Well done for getting into oxbridge and graduating. I once wondered whether I could go there for a masters degree, but didn't look into it seriously in the end. I probably considered it for superficial/status/enjoyment reasons rather that what I should have wanted (hard work / improve myself, etc).

I guess in careers there is always an element of chance in the doors that open to you, and when they open to you. Not every one is going to make it to the C-suite. But not everyone wants to make it to the top either. Over the years I've come to realise that ambition/persistence (something I don't have a lot of) is an important aspect that has a significant bearing on how careers can progress.

Whatever the case, I hope you are happy enough and appreciate your own achievements. If you want more, you could try dialing up your ambition and letting it express itself in your interactions with others, and see what happens.

You go to a university to learn how to learn. A lot of people don't go to university and learn IT skills at home or while doing a job.
If you want a higher day rate you need to reskill in other areas or change specialism.

Agree with both of these comments. Thanks.

Gaining IT skills while doing a job is risky though, because unless you are specifically being told to study something (as some permies are), if you are spending energy learning new skills then you are by definition spending less energy doing the job in hand for your current client. Clients are not stupid and they will pick up on this, and it might result in you getting fired, because they are only interested in their company's business; your career development is of no value to them if you're a contractor.

[northernladuk]

Inflation adjusted, year 2000 was peak rates. I was on over £6000 a week in todays money doing bog standard java work.
And I was cheap, the CSC consultants on site were billing 3x what i was billing. And there were dozens of them. The client blew threw £12 million of dot com bubble venture capital in six months.

Demand for contractors will eventually return to normal. But rates will never exceed those of 2021 on an inflation adjusted basis ever again. Let alone the rates of 2000.

Cool story bro

[Fraidycat]

umI started work in 2000. My starting salary was 32k per annum and market was in full swing. I remember there being a contractor there on £100ph plus overtime. I have never seen that rate again.

Inflation adjusted, year 2000 was peak rates. I was on over £6000 a week in todays money doing bog standard java work.
And I was cheap, the CSC consultants on site were billing 3x what i was billing. And there were dozens of them. The client blew threw £12 million of dot com bubble venture capital in six months.

Demand for contractors will eventually return to normal. But rates will never exceed those of 2021 on an inflation adjusted basis ever again. Let alone the rates of 2000.

[SchumiStars]

umI started work in 2000. My starting salary was 32k per annum and market was in full swing. I remember there being a contractor there on £100ph plus overtime. I have never seen that rate again.

[edison]

There seems to be a heck of a lot available if you have Insurance Markets experience.

I've noticed that too in the last two weeks, especially for BAs and PMs.

I had a spell in insurance last year at the start of a big transformation programme. Seemed really good to begin with whilst the company ramped up IT hiring significantly. Less than a year later a lot of the programme was put on hold or delayed. My experience was that it's quite a cautious conservative industry and getting business change done is a hard slog.

[TheDude]

But the work I put in at school and college in order to get a place at Oxbridge, and the hard work required during the degree course itself was an "investment", one that I hoped would pay out -more- than the work I put in to do it. That's the reason we make investments - to get out more than we put in, otherwise what's the point. It is the case that Oxbridge graduates do better in their careers on average than non-Oxbridge graduates, and that was why I did it.

So I think I am entitled to feel a little disappointed that this hasn't worked out for me in the way it has for most other Oxbridge grads or even non-oxbridge grads, but you're right that I must not have achieved very much since.

I wasn't referring to you personally and apologise for any offence however I have worked with many Oxbridge grads who still seem to think they are entitled to something more ten or so years into a career in which they have not really distinguished themselves.

[JustKeepSwimming]

Noticed Public sector (with SC) and insurance popping off. By which I mean more than normal, but it might be normal levels whilst everything else is in the gutter.

Big banks seem to be pretty much dead, even roles being advertised are constantly being put on hold, then relisted, hold again.