USA’s top Climate Change Expert Lied

[EternalOptimist]

Can you share the linky to the research?

indeedy

it was not research, it was testimony to the senate in 1988

[BlasterBates]

The original statement was >100% out. CO2 rose from 356ppm in 1993 to 394ppm in January this year just over 10%, he stated 25%. Data is here

Trends in Carbon Dioxide

Admirably, he's clarified that he meant 25% of the total increase has occurred in the last 20 years, which is more plausible. Short term trends (anything < 30 yrs really) can mislead, for example for the first 15 of the last 20 years, temperatures rose at twice the average predicted rate:-

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs



Straw Man. Imagine there was no greenhouse gas warming influence, woiuld the graph be a horizontal line? Of course not, there are fluctuations due to ocean circulation changes, the solar cycle and many other natural factors. Over the short term, natural variability can mask the more gradual increase. And yes, the models do predict such plateaux:-

http://www.scilogs.de/klimalounge/fi...Iscenario1.png



Calling BS on that. The most pessimistic projections predict 5-6C by the end of the century. Waste of time asking for your source, I guess.

Well you're wasting your time with that post, I meant 25% of man's total contribution, which I explained just before you spent half-an-hour putting that superfluous post together.

You were arguing the wrong point.

[pjclarke]

Americans tend to favour Farenheit, and back in 1988 this was probably the norm. More recently celsius is the de facto standard in climate science.

So +20F possible in Northern latitudes by 2025-2050? I make that +11.1C. If you generate the global anomaly map for November

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gi...s=1200&pol=reg

you see that most of Siberia was 4-8C above the 1951-1980 baseline. So we're about two-thirds of the way to Hansen's predicted outcome with 12-37 years to go.

To answer your question, my opinion of Hansen as a scientist just went up. A prediction made in 1988 using a model you could run on a 386 seems to be coming to pass ...

[pjclarke]

You were arguing the wrong point.

Which part of

Admirably, he's clarified that he meant 25% of the total increase has occurred in the last 20 years,

is giving you the problem?

[EternalOptimist]

Americans tend to favour Farenheit, and back in 1988 this was probably the norm. More recently celsius is the de facto standard in climate science.

So +20F possible in Northern latitudes by 2025-2050? I make that +11.1C. If you generate the global anomaly map for November

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gi...s=1200&pol=reg

you see that most of Siberia was 4-8C above the 1951-1980 baseline. So we're about two-thirds of the way to Hansen's predicted outcome with 12-37 years to go.

To answer your question, my opinion of Hansen as a scientist just went up. A prediction made in 1988 using a model you could run on a 386 seems to be coming to pass ...

well I live in the Northern latitudes. so i will be 20f warmer in eleven years, all year round than I was when DieHard was released in 1988?
if that happened, snow would be a thing of the past

[Old Greg]

I dont think he is far wrong.
CO2 emissions increased quite fast, 25% seems like a reasonable ballpark figure, i would have to check (I know he said co2 and not co2 emissions)

the point is, co2 and co2 emissions are rising rapidly. According to the catastrophists, the planet should be warming fast. it isnt.



Dont forget, your Nasa hero, James Hansen predicted a 20 degree rise in temps by 2025.

thats twenty degrees in the next 11 years. Do you honestly believe that will happen? honestly

Do you mean this?

If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.

[EternalOptimist]

Do you mean this?

thats the bit , yes. 20f at the higher latitudes.
thats us, that is

[Old Greg]

thats the bit , yes. 20f at the higher latitudes.
thats us, that is

So he said by 2025 like you said he said?

[EternalOptimist]

So he said by 2025 like you said he said?

that was his window between 2025 and 2050

like I said, lets give the old boobie 36 years, out of kindness

[Old Greg]

that was his window between 2025 and 2050

like I said, lets give the old boobie 36 years, out of kindness

So not what you said at all. I'm starting to understand how you feel about Al Gore, and I can't be arsed wasting more time with bulltulip right now. Another day and we can do it all again. All the best as always.