Unemployment

[Protagoras]

As expected, general unemployment is up again and now reported as 5.2%.
For 18-24 year old people, it's reported as 14%.

Also reported is public sector wage growth at 7.2% and private sector wage growth at 3.4%.

None of this bodes well at all, but I'm uncertain how an interest rate reduction would help. Unemployment appears not to be driven by high wages per se, rather it's driven by policy costs. In the public sector these are neutral anyway. Inflation is largely cost-push and policy driven.

The public sector is funded by taxes and borrowing - it can't be sustainable to have public sector wage rises outstripping private sector wages.

To me, AI looks like an excuse. I don't believe that entry level jobs in most industries are being replaced by AI.

The most depressing thing - I can't see that the current government, or any prospective government, has the ability to sort this out.

Background from https://www.theguardian.com/business...interest-rates

[DoctorStrangelove]

Placeholder for the next YOP or YTS scheme. .

[DaiTheContractor]

I don't believe that entry level jobs in most industries are being replaced by AI.

Unfortunately this is the case, although it works hand-in-hand with frantic offshoring and the corporate tradition of reducing team sizes but not team workload (itself aided by AI, which in some cases can allow you to 10x the work you do).

[sadkingbilly]

you're all DOOMED!
DOOMED i tell ye's. DOOMED!

[DoctorStrangelove]

you're all DOOMED!
DOOMED i tell ye's. DOOMED!

Don't Panic! Don't Panic! They don't like it up 'em Mr Mainwaring. .

[Protagoras]

Unfortunately this is the case, although it works hand-in-hand with frantic offshoring and the corporate tradition of reducing team sizes but not team workload (itself aided by AI, which in some cases can allow you to 10x the work you do).

The last study I saw was this one, but there may be more up to date research. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/new-study-reveals-early-impact-of-ai-on-job-market-in-uk

There was a reported study in the US (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ai-arti...-jobs-workers/) which identified exposed sectors and is quite interesting.

I appreciate that firms' adoption of AI reduces demand for work in areas such as accounting and software development, but I think there are other factors - such as off-shoring - in play.

One interesting aspect is that graduates who don't get work within a year of graduating, end up competing against the following year's cohort, so that the shelf life becomes problematic.

[tazdevil]

Unfortunately this is the case, although it works hand-in-hand with frantic offshoring and the corporate tradition of reducing team sizes but not team workload (itself aided by AI, which in some cases can allow you to 10x the work you do).

If AI is replacing jobs then its likely that the offshore market will be affected most as what's the point of cheap workers when cheap AI will do the job? AI isn't going to replace the system designers and higher level people as they create and all AI does is regurgitate that which has already been created

[jamesbrown]

If AI is replacing jobs then its likely that the offshore market will be affected most as what's the point of cheap workers when cheap AI will do the job? AI isn't going to replace the system designers and higher level people as they create and all AI does is regurgitate that which has already been created

Not exactly. Novel information doesn't come from a vacuum. Humans cannot produce novel information without a frame of reference. Novel information is produced by recombination and mutation. Mutation can be produced by experimentation, even if only random combination. Certainly, AI can produce new insight by recombination and by experimentation. If your insight into AI comes from the free versions of the standard LLMs (those being a subset of AI models), you may be surprised at how quickly things have progressed. Six months is a long time in AI with the amount of investment and progress. At this point, AI is contributing to the next generation of AI and it may evolve itself before too long. The free versions of the well-known LLMs produce a lot of slop and hallucination, sure, but the free versions are some way behind and, regardless, things are moving insanely quickly.

It's probably quite hard to see the industrial revolution when you're inside it, and there are a lot of wild opinions from vested interests, but if you don't think AI is going to replace (not merely increase the productivity of, but replace) a ton of sophisticated white collar jobs relatively soon, then you are probably hoping for the best against reason.

[DoctorStrangelove]

Come with me if you want to live

I want more life, ****er

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe

. All documentaries.

[Protagoras]

PS - According to the news this evening, of the unemployed 24 year olds, 45% have never had a job. Not going to be easy finding one's first job at 24.