Reply to: Unemployment

[milanbenes]

It's just a way of reducing the number of applicants.

When I was a hiring manager, I'd throw the top half of the pile of the CVs in the bin on the grounds I don't want to hire unlucky people.

When I had a contract near Vauxhall, I'd regularly get the train to Liverpool St Station with a chap working "in the city", who'd gone there from doing his O levels.

lol

Milan

[alamest]

I think the interesting bit in the OP isn’t just the headline 5.2% figure, but the point about youth unemployment being around 14%. That’s a very different story depending on where you sit in the market. As contractors, we tend to feel demand shifts quickly, but entry-level and junior roles often get squeezed first when companies tighten budgets.

I’ve also noticed that while AI gets blamed for everything, a lot of what I’m seeing is still good old-fashioned cost control, offshoring, rate pressure, and projects being paused rather than outright replaced by automation. The public sector wage point is valid too; funding has to come from somewhere.

From what people are seeing on the ground, is this translating into fewer contract renewals, or just longer gaps between gigs?

[NotAllThere]

These opportunities still exist but are much rarer. Most companies seem to require a degree.

It's just a way of reducing the number of applicants.

When I was a hiring manager, I'd throw the top half of the pile of the CVs in the bin on the grounds I don't want to hire unlucky people.

When I had a contract near Vauxhall, I'd regularly get the train to Liverpool St Station with a chap working "in the city", who'd gone there from doing his O levels.

[TheDude]

PS - According to the news this evening, of the unemployed 24 year olds, 45% have never had a job. Not going to be easy finding one's first job at 24.

I left school in 1989, college in 1991 and university in 1998.

When I left school/college it was perfectly possible to find a job in the city. When I left University it was possible for 24 year olds who had dossed around a bit to find jobs in the city - usually word of mouth from those who had started after school/college.

These opportunities still exist but are much rarer. Most companies seem to require a degree.

[TheDude]

Placeholder for the next YOP or YTS scheme. .

That is what University is for plus it shifts the cost onto the student/parent

[agentzero]

lol you lot are soooo funny

make mine a pint of what he's drinking please Barman

Milan.

The current western European governments are planning for 15-25% unemployment due to AI upheaval. Others might be suggesting AI doing most or every job, I'm not.

You think it's a fantasy to see 20% unemployment? Many jobs can be automated and will be. The doomsters suggesting offices won't exist anymore are exaggerating but the people suggesting everything will be fine and people will just move to other jobs clearly not understanding how private business works. The economy has been bad since the pandemic and I worry that I see so many professionals unemployed or downgrading to very low wages just to get some money coming in. It seems worse than 2008-12 to me.

[Protagoras]

lol you lot are soooo funny

make mine a pint of what he's drinking please Barman

Milan.

It's being so cheerful that keeps us going!

[milanbenes]

Quite. And where we have modern economies based on the notion of economically 'full' employment, systems will need to adapt to having high levels of people doing nothing. There's hardly enough funding as it is for benefits and the state pension Ponzi scheme, so this will have significant impact.

Even jobs such as plumbers may become robot assisted. It would be great to have a small robot that could get under floors and into tight corners to check / fit plumbing.

Government will need to get savvy pretty quickly to work out how to tax AI and robotics. Maybe a firm using AI / robotics should pay tax on the same basis as the displaced worker?

When the war comes, it will be fought with robots controlled by AI. We've got no chance.

Someone mention doomed?

lol you lot are soooo funny

make mine a pint of what he's drinking please Barman

Milan.

[Protagoras]

That's not what's being planned in by European governments. Significant underemployment is expected and will affect a range of professionals at all levels, including c-suite. It's all well suggesting people will find other roles, but is someone in the top 10% or 5% of earners going to be ok with working as a plumber or in a supermarket?

The planning I am seeing suggests there's going to be a significant increase in unemployment and the upheaval is going to badly affect the economy because people will stop spending. There are concerns across companies. US companies, as you have already seen, are already firing 10, 15, 20% of roles. If your role can be automated, it will.

Nonchalance isn't a plan.

Quite. And where we have modern economies based on the notion of economically 'full' employment, systems will need to adapt to having high levels of people doing nothing. There's hardly enough funding as it is for benefits and the state pension Ponzi scheme, so this will have significant impact.

Even jobs such as plumbers may become robot assisted. It would be great to have a small robot that could get under floors and into tight corners to check / fit plumbing.

Government will need to get savvy pretty quickly to work out how to tax AI and robotics. Maybe a firm using AI / robotics should pay tax on the same basis as the displaced worker?

When the war comes, it will be fought with robots controlled by AI. We've got no chance.

Someone mention doomed?

[Snooky]

Ssoooo, it's rock salt, then bird shot, then buck shot, then slugs

Won't the slugs be incapacitated by the salt?

[milanbenes]

That's not what's being planned in by European governments. Significant underemployment is expected and will affect a range of professionals at all levels, including c-suite. It's all well suggesting people will find other roles, but is someone in the top 10% or 5% of earners going to be ok with working as a plumber or in a supermarket?

The planning I am seeing suggests there's going to be a significant increase in unemployment and the upheaval is going to badly affect the economy because people will stop spending. There are concerns across companies. US companies, as you have already seen, are already firing 10, 15, 20% of roles. If your role can be automated, it will.

Nonchalance isn't a plan.

lol glass half emoty

Milan.

[DoctorStrangelove]

Ssoooo, it's rock salt, then bird shot, then buck shot, then slugs. .

Anyone got a sabot handy whilst I pop around to t'mill? Askin' for a friend, like. .

[sadkingbilly]

like i said:

DOOMED!

[agentzero]

apparently the same conversations happened with the introduction of the printing press and the weaving machine

what's different this time

the world will not end

people will find different roles

Milan.

That's not what's being planned in by European governments. Significant underemployment is expected and will affect a range of professionals at all levels, including c-suite. It's all well suggesting people will find other roles, but is someone in the top 10% or 5% of earners going to be ok with working as a plumber or in a supermarket?

The planning I am seeing suggests there's going to be a significant increase in unemployment and the upheaval is going to badly affect the economy because people will stop spending. There are concerns across companies. US companies, as you have already seen, are already firing 10, 15, 20% of roles. If your role can be automated, it will.

Nonchalance isn't a plan.

[jamesbrown]

True but it takes a human to understand the usefulness of any such insight Things evolve and AI is just another tool / step along in that evolution for us. What we have is a demographic problem not an AI one. AI may accelerate, or not, finding the solution to the demographic problem. Personally I think the end of the 21st century will be a period of warfare to cull the overpopulation. Hollywood may actually have got some of this right!

If AI can produce insight, it can - by definition - understand the meaning of that insight because it needs some stopping criteria, a target or objective (that we give it... at least, initially ). As I said above, it's probably quite hard to know when you're inside a revolution, but the rapid progress of AI and robotics certainly looks like a revolution more than an evolution and, like others before it, this will probably cause massive upheaval with outcomes ranging from unknowable to fairly certain (of which an accelerating loss of white collar jobs is at the more predictable end - I mean, it's already happening).