Make Britain Great Again

[northernladuk]

I thought this sounded like utter b*ll*x and so it proves to be.
See https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2556885.html



But this is just immigration, not net population change - that's a very different story:



315,000 a year over 12 years is 3.78m, a slightly different picture from what Reform are trying to paint. It's amazing what stories you can tell by cherry-picking statistics!

All good points and we need to get to the facts like this when discussing it for sure. The only thing that strikes me is that historically even through people have smashed through the claims with facts those facts were nothing like what actually happened and the reality was much more. So yes, you are right to point the facts out but it's not a bad assumption that the actually figures at the end of the period will be way more than forecast. They were wrong over the last period so safe to say they are likely to be wrong for the next one as well.

I think most people, whatever side of the argument you are on, can admit it's out of control so how are we supposed to believe the facts?

I'll admit to being nothing more than a casual observer and don't understand the whole thing but even the facts you propose don't look like a good result.

[vetran]

I thought this sounded like utter b*ll*x and so it proves to be.
See https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2556885.html



But this is just immigration, not net population change - that's a very different story:



315,000 a year over 12 years is 3.78m, a slightly different picture from what Reform are trying to paint. It's amazing what stories you can tell by cherry-picking statistics!

so how many will "ARRIVE" ? not "ARRIVE - LEAVE"?

Guess which truthful figure Reform quote?

[vetran]

All good points and we need to get to the facts like this when discussing it for sure. The only thing that strikes me is that historically even through people have smashed through the claims with facts those facts were nothing like what actually happened and the reality was much more. So yes, you are right to point the facts out but it's not a bad assumption that the actually figures at the end of the period will be way more than forecast. They were wrong over the last period so safe to say they are likely to be wrong for the next one as well.

I think most people, whatever side of the argument you are on, can admit it's out of control so how are we supposed to believe the facts?

I'll admit to being nothing more than a casual observer and don't understand the whole thing but even the facts you propose don't look like a good result.

So if you run a school and 5% of the kids change every year even though the headcount remains roughly the same does that make the school population more coherent or not?

[SueEllen]

So if you run a school and 5% of the kids change every year even though the headcount remains roughly the same does that make the school population more coherent or not?

Depends if the school has 30 children, 100 children or 2500 children.

I went to a secondary school that was around the latter size.

[NotAllThere]

The Office of National statistics say 14 million immigrants will come to the UK over the next 12 years!

If Labour get in the number will be higher.

Only Reform UK will reduce that number.

The remaining population growth of 6.1 million comes from the difference between 13.7 million people immigrating to the UK long-term and 7.6 million people emigrating out of the UK long-term.

Usually testicular nonsense from the hysterical Reform party - believed by the hysterical credulous.

[Snooky]

They were wrong over the last period so safe to say they are likely to be wrong for the next one as well.

Can you elaborate on who "they" are (ONS?), when "the last period" was and - ideally - provide a link to their predictions for that period and the actual outcome over that period, that you're basing this on? In my experience ONS are usually very careful in analysing data trends and making predictions, but of course they're just educated guesses.

[sadkingbilly]

Can you elaborate on who "they" are ?

and who 'we' are in his world?
he does go on about 'we' and 'they' a lot without any detail.

[northernladuk]

Can you elaborate on who "they" are (ONS?), when "the last period" was and - ideally - provide a link to their predictions for that period and the actual outcome over that period, that you're basing this on? In my experience ONS are usually very careful in analysing data trends and making predictions, but of course they're just educated guesses.

Maybe I didn't make the point very well but this is what I mean.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u...d-from-the-uk/

Projections of future net migration are inherently uncertain


The estimate of 764,000 net migration in 2022 contrasts with lower official projections of future net migration. ONS produces population projections that are used for planning services and making public finance forecasts, among other things. This requires assumptions about future net migration. Making these assumptions is difficult because migration patterns depend on so many different factors both within and beyond government policy. ONS assumptions typically have not taken into account migration policy announcements or political intentions, but instead are based on historical migration and consultations with academic experts.

In its most recent population projections, produced in early 2024 and based on 2021 data, ONS assumed that net migration would fall to an average long-term level of 315,000 by 2028. The fact that net migration in 2022 was an estimated 764,000 does not mean that this projection is ‘wrong,’ since the projection is for long-term migration after 2028 when some of the factors that have increased net migration recently may no longer be present.

Nonetheless, net migration assumptions contained in population projections over the past twenty years have usually undershot. Figure 6 shows the ONS migration assumption used in its principal population projection compared to official estimates of net migration in the same year. In most years, actual net migration has been higher than the projection based on data for the same year, which means that the projections assumed net migration would decline in future. In practice, net migration has fluctuated up and down but usually remained higher than projected. For example, net migration was an estimated 229,000 in 2008. The 2008-based population projections assumed that net migration would fall to 180,000 within a few years, but it remained persistently above 180,000, with a brief exception in 2012. Another exceptional year was 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly reduced net migration. For a further discussion of ONS population projections, see the Migration Observatory briefing, The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth.

So just pointing out that although the post I replied to debunked the claims with facts you've got to bear in mind the figures in those facts are likely to be too low and the end result, although lower than the claims is still not a good thing.

[TestMangler]

My great grandad is a 104 year old D Day veteran and a big fan of Farage.

I asked him to tell me why he likes Farage and agrees with his views.

He explained that he sees Farage as a man who stands for the kind of values that were instiled in people during the war and has the values and moral compass that people agree with.

I was really surprised, as this is the first time he's ever spoken properly to me about his time in The SS.

[jamesbrown]

I was really surprised, as this is the first time he's ever spoken properly to me about his time in The SS.

You couldn't find the right moment while helping him curate his Nazi memorabilia over all those years?