Covid, Covid, everywhere

[Whorty]

Not sure how I haven't caught it, but to date I haven't knowingly had it. I feel a bit rough today, and was with someone the weekend who's colleague has just tested +ve. My friend, and her son, are both feeling a bit rough today so who knows, maybe this is the time I catch it. We've all tested -ve today, so hopefully it's just a bit of a cold we have but I'll test again later in the week if still feeling grotty.

3 of my others friends have all had it this past week. Does seem to be the case of when now and not if.

[d000hg]

Not sure how I haven't caught it, but to date I haven't knowingly had it. I feel a bit rough today, and was with someone the weekend who's colleague has just tested +ve. My friend, and her son, are both feeling a bit rough today so who knows, maybe this is the time I catch it. We've all tested -ve today, so hopefully it's just a bit of a cold we have but I'll test again later in the week if still feeling grotty.

3 of my others friends have all had it this past week. Does seem to be the case of when now and not if.

Especially if you're vaxxed it's entirely plausible you had it and never knew, if you weren't routinely testing. Though what you describe sounds ominously similar to any number of people I've heard say "I think I'm fine..." after a contact only to hear a week later "I've got it"!

[Whorty]

Especially if you're vaxxed it's entirely plausible you had it and never knew, if you weren't routinely testing. Though what you describe sounds ominously similar to any number of people I've heard say "I think I'm fine..." after a contact only to hear a week later "I've got it"!

I definitely feel a bit grotty today so it's possible I'm on my way to developing it, but I guess I won't know for sure until I know!

My friend felt grotty a day before me, so I'll let her keep testing and tell me when she has it

[mattster]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now. FWIW I tested +ve fairly soon after getting symptoms but it took my wife 5 days of feeling slightly off colour before the test showed, after which she got a fair bit worse. We're finding it's not too bad but is a bit of a lingerer. Younger son still testing +ve on day 9, me and the misses still feeling a bit crap in a non-specific sort of way coming into week 2, and I am still testing +ve. Older boy was -ve by day 5 and is now back in school as of today - I wonder if his previous bout (Delta?) just before Christmas helped him shrug this one off.

[SueEllen]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now.

Not necessarily.

It depends who you mix with.

Like with flu, children are known vectors of transmission.

The unhygienic beings ensure it is passed to as many people as possible.

[Whorty]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now. FWIW I tested +ve fairly soon after getting symptoms but it took my wife 5 days of feeling slightly off colour before the test showed, after which she got a fair bit worse. We're finding it's not too bad but is a bit of a lingerer. Younger son still testing +ve on day 9, me and the misses still feeling a bit crap in a non-specific sort of way coming into week 2, and I am still testing +ve. Older boy was -ve by day 5 and is now back in school as of today - I wonder if his previous bout (Delta?) just before Christmas helped him shrug this one off.

I'm supposed to be cycle racing tomorrow, which often kicks off my asthma, so I'm monitoring closely as don't want to push my lungs over the limit. I'm fairly fit and healthy, apart from the asthma which is quite bad, so not sure how covid would impact me. I'm hoping I don't find out, but it's so prevalent I think it must be a matter of time.

[mattster]

Not necessarily.

It depends who you mix with.

Like with flu, children are known vectors of transmission.

The unhygienic beings ensure it is passed to as many people as possible.

This variant has an estimated R0 of 12 and nearly 1 in 10 of the population already has it - it is literally everywhere. Ought to fizzle out fairly soon though if those numbers are actually correct.

[SueEllen]

This variant has an estimated R0 of 12 and nearly 1 in 10 of the population already has it - it is literally everywhere. Ought to fizzle out fairly soon though if those numbers are actually correct.

About 10% are reinfections...

[d000hg]

It feels like we've been saying "it'll burn out soon" for about a year and in fact all that happens is infections reach ever higher record levels. There must simply still be a large reservoir of people who haven't had it and one's "gut feeling" is just wrong since the data don't lie. I've been amazed that every time we get a new variant/sub-variant it's 3-4X more transmissible, when this has happened several times (Delta, Omicron, Omicron 2) for a disease which was very highly transmissible in the first place. Is there an R₀^max theoretically?

That said they seem to have revised downward the R values for different Covid variants (on wikipedia at least) - Omicron is still only half as bad as Measles.

[mattster]

As far as we know, none of us had had it until this one apart from our eldest son, so if anything it seems like this latest variant is much better at evading the vaccine. Having said that, my eldest got this one (symptomatically) almost exactly 3 months after having symptomatic (presumed) Delta, so the current variant is also pretty good at evading prior immunity - which means it basically has the whole country to infect. This one is definitely pretty contagious, but they are all at least fairly contagious, so I guess the biggest driving factor is how well any variant can evade prior immunity/vax, and the more of us there are in that category, the more selection pressure will drive new variants to evade. I must admit I don't fancy going through this every three months, although it is more the isolation than the illness itself that is annoying. Although I am still testing +ve this morning I will resume normal activities in a day as that will be day 10 - even Scotland let you out on day 10, regardless of test result.