Covid, Covid, everywhere

**Lockhouse** · 25 March 2022, 15:23

Originally posted by d000hg View Post

Any disease will of course find its natural equilibrium, do we have any projections what that level is likely to be for Covid? I do know people who haven't (knowingly) had it but they are falling like flies at the moment, loads of us were sitting pretty but nearly all have succumbed in 2022. Fortunately none with serious illness which is the main thing of course.

I concur - it's popping up all over the place. Nearly everyone I know is triple-jabbed so no-one is getting seriously ill but more relatives and friends have had Covid over the past couple of weeks than at any time since the pandemic started.

It's inevitable we'll get it at some stage.

**mattster** · 25 March 2022, 15:30

I can believe it. We've all got it in our household, 3 of us having managed to avoid it for the duration up until now and the 4th (12 year old son) now has it for the second time in 3 months. Not too bad, but definitely symptomatic. All who can be are jabbed, of course. Strangely I'd say this one has been worse for older son than the (presumed) delta he had before Christmas. Younger son was feverish and vomiting as well - not so fun - but right as rain the next day. Had a chat (at a distance) with the postman today he said half the houses round here have it. It certainly doesn't seem to confer much lasting immunity.

**mattster** · 25 March 2022, 15:34

Originally posted by Lockhouse View Post

It's inevitable we'll get it at some stage.

Agreed. This latest sub variant is almost as contagious as measles (R12) and doesn't seem to care about prior infections/vax - everyone's getting it, so you might as well get on with it.

**mattster** · 25 March 2022, 15:40

Originally posted by d000hg View Post

Any disease will of course find its natural equilibrium, do we have any projections what that level is likely to be for Covid?

I'm not sure that it is actually true for all diseases. I did read an article quite a while ago saying that some diseases are inherently "epidemic" rather than endemic, so you end up with sporadic outbreaks that rip through a population and then die out, rather than a low level of endemic disease. With Covid as contagious as it is now would have to be in the former category - much like you don't really have an underlying level of measles.

**Whorty** · 25 March 2022, 15:47

I've not (knowingly) had it yet but as you say, everyone does seem to be dropping like flies at the moment. They all seem to feel grotty for a few days, but right as rain before the week is over so not dissimilar to how we would suffer with a bad cold I guess.

Not many stories about death rates any more ... has that died off (excuse the pun)?

**mattster** · 25 March 2022, 16:00

Originally posted by Whorty View Post

Not many stories about death rates any more ... has that died off (excuse the pun)?

Not many stories about Covid full stop anymore, but hospitalisations on the up if you look for the info. Dropping like flies in Hong Kong (see https://www.worldometers.info/corona...hong-kong-sar/) and from Omicron apparently, so it is the vax and higher pre-infections that are saving us now. Agreed, symptoms pretty mild for me (so far) - about an average cold, not a bad one.

**ladymuck** · 25 March 2022, 16:42

Originally posted by mattster View Post

Not many stories about Covid full stop anymore, but hospitalisations on the up if you look for the info. Dropping like flies in Hong Kong (see https://www.worldometers.info/corona...hong-kong-sar/) and from Omicron apparently, so it is the vax and higher pre-infections that are saving us now. Agreed, symptoms pretty mild for me (so far) - about an average cold, not a bad one.

Hong Kong's problem, IIRC, is that there is low vaccine uptake and they've been trying to go for Covid-zero, which is nigh on impossible. I suspect it doesn't help that the vaccine on offer is probably restricted to the Chinese one which doesn't seem to be as effective.

**mattster** · 25 March 2022, 17:28

Originally posted by ladymuck View Post

Hong Kong's problem, IIRC, is that there is low vaccine uptake and they've been trying to go for Covid-zero, which is nigh on impossible. I suspect it doesn't help that the vaccine on offer is probably restricted to the Chinese one which doesn't seem to be as effective.

Yeah, they got it badly wrong. They kept it almost covid zero until Omicron, but didn't get vax rates up in the mean time - especially amongst the elderly (shockingly low rate, can't remember it exactly). Covid zero only works if you vax to the max before you inevitably have to let it rip - NZ showed how it could be done. Also, the vaccination they were using in HK (Sinovac) is clearly less effective. It also shows that Omicron is still dangerous, even if less so than previous strains.

**SueEllen** · 25 March 2022, 17:33

Originally posted by Whorty View Post

I've not (knowingly) had it yet but as you say, everyone does seem to be dropping like flies at the moment. They all seem to feel grotty for a few days, but right as rain before the week is over so not dissimilar to how we would suffer with a bad cold I guess.

I had a week of a sore throat with swollen neck glands up. Initially thought I had tonsillitis until I saw they were normal.

Originally posted by Whorty View Post

Not many stories about death rates any more ... has that died off (excuse the pun)?

The death rates are still printed in the media daily apart from the weekends.

The UK government is trying to bury it.

I suspect it's going to come back horribly in the winter months coupled with poorer people, working and non-working, not being able to afford to properly heat their homes.

Covid, Covid, everywhere