Reply to: Covid, Covid, everywhere

[mattster]

As far as we know, none of us had had it until this one apart from our eldest son, so if anything it seems like this latest variant is much better at evading the vaccine. Having said that, my eldest got this one (symptomatically) almost exactly 3 months after having symptomatic (presumed) Delta, so the current variant is also pretty good at evading prior immunity - which means it basically has the whole country to infect. This one is definitely pretty contagious, but they are all at least fairly contagious, so I guess the biggest driving factor is how well any variant can evade prior immunity/vax, and the more of us there are in that category, the more selection pressure will drive new variants to evade. I must admit I don't fancy going through this every three months, although it is more the isolation than the illness itself that is annoying. Although I am still testing +ve this morning I will resume normal activities in a day as that will be day 10 - even Scotland let you out on day 10, regardless of test result.

[d000hg]

It feels like we've been saying "it'll burn out soon" for about a year and in fact all that happens is infections reach ever higher record levels. There must simply still be a large reservoir of people who haven't had it and one's "gut feeling" is just wrong since the data don't lie. I've been amazed that every time we get a new variant/sub-variant it's 3-4X more transmissible, when this has happened several times (Delta, Omicron, Omicron 2) for a disease which was very highly transmissible in the first place. Is there an R₀^max theoretically?

That said they seem to have revised downward the R values for different Covid variants (on wikipedia at least) - Omicron is still only half as bad as Measles.

[SueEllen]

This variant has an estimated R0 of 12 and nearly 1 in 10 of the population already has it - it is literally everywhere. Ought to fizzle out fairly soon though if those numbers are actually correct.

About 10% are reinfections...

[mattster]

Not necessarily.

It depends who you mix with.

Like with flu, children are known vectors of transmission.

The unhygienic beings ensure it is passed to as many people as possible.

This variant has an estimated R0 of 12 and nearly 1 in 10 of the population already has it - it is literally everywhere. Ought to fizzle out fairly soon though if those numbers are actually correct.

[Whorty]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now. FWIW I tested +ve fairly soon after getting symptoms but it took my wife 5 days of feeling slightly off colour before the test showed, after which she got a fair bit worse. We're finding it's not too bad but is a bit of a lingerer. Younger son still testing +ve on day 9, me and the misses still feeling a bit crap in a non-specific sort of way coming into week 2, and I am still testing +ve. Older boy was -ve by day 5 and is now back in school as of today - I wonder if his previous bout (Delta?) just before Christmas helped him shrug this one off.

I'm supposed to be cycle racing tomorrow, which often kicks off my asthma, so I'm monitoring closely as don't want to push my lungs over the limit. I'm fairly fit and healthy, apart from the asthma which is quite bad, so not sure how covid would impact me. I'm hoping I don't find out, but it's so prevalent I think it must be a matter of time.

[SueEllen]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now.

Not necessarily.

It depends who you mix with.

Like with flu, children are known vectors of transmission.

The unhygienic beings ensure it is passed to as many people as possible.

[mattster]

I'd guess you probably have it - it is apparently more common than a cold right now. FWIW I tested +ve fairly soon after getting symptoms but it took my wife 5 days of feeling slightly off colour before the test showed, after which she got a fair bit worse. We're finding it's not too bad but is a bit of a lingerer. Younger son still testing +ve on day 9, me and the misses still feeling a bit crap in a non-specific sort of way coming into week 2, and I am still testing +ve. Older boy was -ve by day 5 and is now back in school as of today - I wonder if his previous bout (Delta?) just before Christmas helped him shrug this one off.

[Whorty]

Especially if you're vaxxed it's entirely plausible you had it and never knew, if you weren't routinely testing. Though what you describe sounds ominously similar to any number of people I've heard say "I think I'm fine..." after a contact only to hear a week later "I've got it"!

I definitely feel a bit grotty today so it's possible I'm on my way to developing it, but I guess I won't know for sure until I know!

My friend felt grotty a day before me, so I'll let her keep testing and tell me when she has it

[d000hg]

Not sure how I haven't caught it, but to date I haven't knowingly had it. I feel a bit rough today, and was with someone the weekend who's colleague has just tested +ve. My friend, and her son, are both feeling a bit rough today so who knows, maybe this is the time I catch it. We've all tested -ve today, so hopefully it's just a bit of a cold we have but I'll test again later in the week if still feeling grotty.

3 of my others friends have all had it this past week. Does seem to be the case of when now and not if.

Especially if you're vaxxed it's entirely plausible you had it and never knew, if you weren't routinely testing. Though what you describe sounds ominously similar to any number of people I've heard say "I think I'm fine..." after a contact only to hear a week later "I've got it"!

[Whorty]

Not sure how I haven't caught it, but to date I haven't knowingly had it. I feel a bit rough today, and was with someone the weekend who's colleague has just tested +ve. My friend, and her son, are both feeling a bit rough today so who knows, maybe this is the time I catch it. We've all tested -ve today, so hopefully it's just a bit of a cold we have but I'll test again later in the week if still feeling grotty.

3 of my others friends have all had it this past week. Does seem to be the case of when now and not if.

[OwlHoot]

IMHO, the trick is not to catch it too deep in the lungs if possible. So when I go into a crowded shop or somewhere, I try and breathe as shallowly as I can. The trouble is if you overdo the shallow breathing you start feeling faint and practically pass out!

I wonder if anyone has tried actually wearing a snorkel, with some kind of jury rigged filter or hubble bubble water filter on the end! Sounds absolutely mad - I know I wouldn't have the nerve to walk around wearing one!

[SueEllen]

Can antibody test discriminate between natural and vaccine acquired antibodies?

The one I had as part of a national survey said it could.

At that time, summer last year, I had had my first Covid vaccine but hadn't knowingly caught Covid.

[mattster]

You need to have an antibody test.

Can antibody test discriminate between natural and vaccine acquired antibodies?

[d000hg]

Eh? Maybe not Omicron, but another variant surely can - or our immunity will wane. My son went literally less than 3 months between infections, so without better (sterilizing, longer lasting) vaccines it seems like this pattern could go on forever.

Is Covid unusual in how quickly you seem able to catch it again - even vaccinated? Obviously you can get a cold over and over but as I understood it that's normally different colds?

[d000hg]

You need to have an antibody test.

Are they reliable or do antibodies fade away after a while too?