R>1

[AtW]

48k cases today, +16k on last week!

[SueEllen]

I think 5. is quite key. Not "I don't want the jab" but "oh, yeah, I'll get that when I remember to but I'm a bit busy right now" -> fast-forward 3 months "I've just got a lot on my plate right now I've not had time".

When I got my second vaccine the nurse said that people came in just to abuse them.

It was in the news this week that the abusers are now mostly younger people.

[d000hg]

Apparently the reasons for vaccine hesitancy amongst the younger population are:

1. They haven't seen the effects of serious diseases first hand thanks to well-run vaccination programs e.g. polio, MMR, BCG
2. All the people they know dead from Covid are old.
3. All the people with Long Covid are so ill they hide from the world.
4. They are young so they are immortal
Therefore they don't need a vaccination
5. They are lazy and unable to make decisions or commitments

However if vaccine passports are brought in stopping them partying and going on holiday, they will book and get the jab.

I think 5. is quite key. Not "I don't want the jab" but "oh, yeah, I'll get that when I remember to but I'm a bit busy right now" -> fast-forward 3 months "I've just got a lot on my plate right now I've not had time".

[mattster]

However if vaccine passports are brought in stopping them partying and going on holiday, they will book and get the jab.

Just look at what happened in France after Macron deemed vaccines required to go to a cafe!

[SueEllen]

Yes. If you take the view that the government actually want as many of the unvaccinated population as possible to get infected before the autumn, then the actions they are taking now start to make a lot more sense.

Apparently the reasons for vaccine hesitancy amongst the younger population are:

1. They haven't seen the effects of serious diseases first hand thanks to well-run vaccination programs e.g. polio, MMR, BCG
2. All the people they know dead from Covid are old.
3. All the people with Long Covid are so ill they hide from the world.
4. They are young so they are immortal
Therefore they don't need a vaccination

However if vaccine passports are brought in stopping them partying and going on holiday, they will book and get the jab.

[mattster]

They are doing it to conduct what is in effect a "forced vaccination" via infection of those who would not otherwise vaccinate, at a price of death for those who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons.

Yes. If you take the view that the government actually want as many of the unvaccinated population as possible to get infected before the autumn, then the actions they are taking now start to make a lot more sense.

[d000hg]

https://srv1.worldometers.info/coronavirus

As of yesterday's data it looks like we'll never get out of the top 20 deaths/population now. Meanwhile USA and the rest of Western Europe appears to have suppressed it though I am not sure to what extent they have lifted restrictions in Spain, France, etc - they might follow our surge in coming months.

[AtW]

Actually, having read around a bit on masks and I am surprised at just how effective they seem to be. Madness to stop now, given it is such a simple intervention and we are all so used to wearing them anyway.

They are doing it to conduct what is in effect a "forced vaccination" via infection of those who would not otherwise vaccinate, at a price of death for those who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons.

Daily infections now close to daily number of first doze of vaccine given.

[mattster]

I guess "effectively useless" is based on a target R. I am not quite sure I follow all the graphs but in the bottom-rght one at least you can kind of see a 70% mask-wearing value is where the R value crosses the 1 line?

Yes, I suppose the effect on the R rate is linear, but the effect of the R rate is exponential. So if that 30% non compliance makes the difference between an R rate of 2 compared to less than 1, then that ultimately has a huge effect. Actually, having read around a bit on masks and I am surprised at just how effective they seem to be. Madness to stop now, given it is such a simple intervention and we are all so used to wearing them anyway.

[d000hg]

OK, well I couldn't find whoever was talking this morning on R4, and the only decent looking model I could find seems to support your hypothesis that it should be a linear drop off - which indeed the graphs below show. They reckon on something like a 50-75% "effectiveness".

I guess "effectively useless" is based on a target R. I am not quite sure I follow all the graphs but in the bottom-rght one at least you can kind of see a 70% mask-wearing value is where the R value crosses the 1 line?